EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• After more than a decade of deliberations, ASEAN leaders agreed on 11 November 2022 in principle to admit Timor-Leste as the eleventh member of the regional organization and to grant Timor-Leste observer status to attend all ASEAN meetings. Timor-Leste has demonstrated positive developmental progress, and fact-finding missions across the three ASEAN Community pillars have returned generally optimistic results.

• However, an assessment of Timor-Leste's ability to fulfil its commitments and obligations reveals that the country will need to close the gap with the ten existing members on matters such as the ratification and implementation of legally binding agreements and derivative work plans. Creating enforcement mechanisms and finding ways to implement commitments at the local level will be important.

• Timor-Leste has put in place institutional structures and implementing agencies for advancing cooperation with ASEAN. It is also moving towards harmonizing its laws with ASEAN instruments. However, its capacity remains in question due to a lack of substantive knowledge and technical expertise among government officials, as well as inadequate infrastructure, logistics and facilities for hosting ASEAN meetings.

• Strengthening human capital will be a top priority for Timor-Leste. This includes not only enhancing its personnel's knowledge and technical expertise on ASEAN processes and procedures but also skills such as English language proficiency and negotiation. Coordinated capacity-building assistance from ASEAN and dialogue partners will be important. These efforts must also be met with economic diversification and growth of its nascent private sector.

• Apart from bridging gaps, ASEAN needs to grapple with its reservations that Timor-Leste's economic limitations may slow down the realization of the ASEAN Economic Community. There are also concerns that Timor-Leste's membership may entrench differences within the bloc, particularly with regard to geopolitical issues, and dilute the organization's effectiveness or further complicate the consensus-based decision-making process.

INTRODUCTION

In response to Timor-Leste's formal application for ASEAN membership in 2011, ASEAN leaders in November 2022 finally came to an in-principle agreement to admit the country as its eleventh member and to grant Timor-Leste observer status to attend all ASEAN meetings. This follows the positive outcomes of fact-finding missions across the three ASEAN Community pillars, which noted the strong political will and commitment displayed by Timor-Leste for its accession to ASEAN.

Timor-Leste has developed two key documents to help align its national laws, regulations, and policies with ASEAN’s, particularly concerning its binding agreements. The “Timor-Leste ASEAN Mobilization Programme” (TLAMP) and the “Critical Elements for

Accession” (CEA) Work Plan enable the country to map the scope of each agreement and area of cooperation for the benefit of its corresponding government ministries and agencies.

While Timor-Leste has successfully mapped out ASEAN programmes and activities to mobilize its relevant officials, there is still work to be done in fulfilling the obligations and commitments of ASEAN membership. As the fact-finding missions across the three ASEAN Community pillars have reported, Timor-Leste's resolve and determination alone, though commendable, are insufficient for the country to fully comply with all the requirements and responsibilities of membership. Further efforts are needed to bridge the gaps across all cooperation areas, especially to bring the country's regulatory trade and investment regimes to full compliance with over 200 ASEAN economic agreements.

Apart from a long list of agreements, cooperation within ASEAN continues to evolve to address increasingly complex challenges in the region and beyond. Sectoral bodies in ASEAN now cover an expanded scope of cooperation including more military field and table-top exercises, digitalization, e-commerce, cybersecurity, green technology, and innovation, among others. Timor-Leste will need to build its capacity, not just to accede to all legally binding instruments of ASEAN, but also to contribute constructively to all aspects of ASEAN cooperation—current and future.

For this reason, ASEAN has underscored the importance of fully supporting the country to achieve the milestones in a criteria-based roadmap.

The economic, political, strategic and cultural dynamism in Southeast Asia has gained added relevance in recent years with the spectacular rise of giant economies in East and South Asia. This has drawn greater attention to the region and to the enhanced role it now plays in international relations and global economics.

The sustained effort made by Southeast Asian nations since 1967 towards a peaceful and gradual integration of their economies has had indubitable success, and perhaps as a consequence of this, most of these countries are undergoing deep political and social changes domestically and are constructing innovative solutions to meet new international challenges. Big Power tensions continue to be played out in the neighbourhood despite the tradition of neutrality exercised by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The Trends in Southeast Asia series acts as a platform for serious analyses by selected authors who are experts in their fields. It is aimed at encouraging policymakers and scholars to contemplate the diversity and dynamism of this exciting region.

THE EDITORS

Series Chairman:

Choi Shing Kwok

Series Editor:

Ooi Kee Beng

Editorial Committee:

Daljit Singh

Francis E. Hutchinson

Norshahril Saat

Appendix

The reports of the three fact-finding missions have shown that Timor- Leste has made good developmental progress in its brief independence. It has taken concrete actions including establishing embassies in all ASEAN capitals and is in the process of setting up a Permanent Mission to ASEAN.

Despite concerns over Timor-Leste's economic limitations or the possibility of diluting ASEAN's effectiveness, its accession to ASEAN will anchor the young nation to the regional grouping and provide it with a sense of belonging. There will be greater opportunities for trade and economic cooperation as well as information sharing. Having an additional member will spread the costs of membership and the responsibility of coordinatorship in ASEAN.

Teething problems for Timor-Leste are inevitable. ASEAN member states will need to provide capacity-building and technical support to ensure that Timor-Leste is able to accede to all legally binding agreements and to implement the plethora of work plans under the three Community pillars. Failure to do so or a delay in negotiations over new documents will certainly slow down the ASEAN Community-building process.

Timor-Leste will need to show its commitment by: (i) attending all ASEAN meetings regardless of its manpower, resource, or technical limitations. This includes the meetings of the ASEAN Committees in Third Countries and International Organizations (ACTCs); (ii) expeditiously ratifying all ASEAN instruments and agreements; (iii) supporting the capacity-building programmes provided by ASEAN member states, the ASEAN Secretariat and external partners; (iv) ensuring adequate infrastructure and facilities to host large-scale ASEAN meetings; (v) addressing concerns from ASEAN with regards to economic diversification; and (vi) adhering to strict disciplines including protecting the confidentiality of documents.