This chapter shifts from looking at current practice to exploring anticipated trends that are likely to have an impact on the ways in which libraries might support people with dementia and their carers. This includes both changes within populations likely to be diagnosed with dementia and developments in the provision of care. It concludes by suggesting actions libraries may want to consider to ensure the ways in which people with dementia and their carers are supported meet the needs of these customers in the future. This chapter offers a broad overview of issues that may impact on the provision of library services generally; however, for any library, it is important to assess predicted trends in the local population – the factors that are likely to have the greatest impact on provision can vary considerably from region to region.

Demographic changes

The first factor likely to impact on the provision of dementia care and support is the expected increase in the number of people diagnosed with the condition worldwide. The number of people living with dementia around the world is expected to increase substantially over the coming decades. Researchers estimate that the number of people with dementia will increase from 57.4 million cases globally in 2019 to 152.8 million cases in 2050. The largest increases in projected dementia cases are in North Africa and the Middle East (367%) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357%). The smallest percentage changes are anticipated in high-income countries in Asia Pacific and western Europe, where they are expected to rise by 53% and 74% respectively (Nichols et al., 2019). Even in countries where the expected percentage increases are comparatively modest, the numbers are still striking. The number of people with dementia in the UK is forecast to reach over 1 million by 2025 and over 2 million by 2051 (ARUK, 2022). In the US an estimated 7.2 million people are expected to have Alzheimer's disease by 2025; in the absence of medical breakthroughs, the number is expected to climb to 13.8 million by 2060 (Alzheimer's Association, 2021).