Real-life decisions are often complex because they involve making sequential choices that constrain future options. We have previously shown that to render such multi-step decisions manageable, people ‘prune’ (i.e. selectively disregard) branches of decision trees that contain negative outcomes. We have theorized that sub-optimal pruning contributes to depression by promoting an oversampling of branches that result in unsavoury outcomes, which results in a negatively-biased valuation of the world. However, no study has tested this theory in depressed individuals.

Thirty unmedicated depressed and 31 healthy participants were administered a sequential reinforcement-based decision-making task to determine pruning behaviours, and completed measures of depression and anxiety. Computational, Bayesian and frequentist analyses examined group differences in task performance and relationships between pruning and depressive symptoms.

Consistent with prior findings, participants robustly pruned branches of decision trees that began with large losses, regardless of the potential utility of those branches. However, there was no group difference in pruning behaviours. Further, there was no relationship between pruning and levels of depression/anxiety.

We found no evidence that sub-optimal pruning is evident in depression. Future research could determine whether maladaptive pruning behaviours are observable in specific sub-groups of depressed patients (e.g. in treatment-resistant individuals), or whether misuse of other heuristics may contribute to depression.

Experience of emotion is closely linked to valuation. Mood can be viewed as a bias to experience positive or negative emotions and abnormally biased subjective reward valuation and cognitions are core characteristics of major depression.

Thirty-four unmedicated subjects with major depressive disorder and controls estimated the probability that fractal stimuli were associated with reward, based on passive observations, so they could subsequently choose the higher of either their estimated fractal value or an explicitly presented reward probability. Using model-based functional magnetic resonance imaging, we estimated each subject's internal value estimation, with psychophysiological interaction analysis used to examine event-related connectivity, testing hypotheses of abnormal reward valuation and cingulate connectivity in depression.

Reward value encoding in the hippocampus and rostral anterior cingulate was abnormal in depression. In addition, abnormal decision-making in depression was associated with increased anterior mid-cingulate activity and a signal in this region encoded the difference between the values of the two options. This localised decision-making and its impairment to the anterior mid-cingulate cortex (aMCC) consistent with theories of cognitive control. Notably, subjects with depression had significantly decreased event-related connectivity between the aMCC and rostral cingulate regions during decision-making, implying impaired communication between the neural substrates of expected value estimation and decision-making in depression.

Our findings support the theory that abnormal neural reward valuation plays a central role in major depressive disorder (MDD). To the extent that emotion reflects valuation, abnormal valuation could explain abnormal emotional experience in MDD, reflect a core pathophysiological process and be a target of treatment.