Pollen and diatom assemblages from well-dated sediment cores from three lakes forming a west-to-east transect across the boreal forest in northwest Ontario (Canada) were used to evaluate the timing and nature of the movement of the prairie–forest ecotone (PFE) across the Holocene. Changes in vegetation, temperature, and effective moisture were inferred from pollen and pollen-based transfer functions. Analyses indicated site-specific vegetational and climate changes across short spatial distances, with prolonged prairie-like conditions during the middle Holocene at the westernmost site. Increased reconstructed temperatures at this westernmost site occurred from ~9000 to 3000 cal yr BP, alongside increases in diatom-inferred lake levels beginning at ~6000 cal yr BP. The abundance of Quercus peaked concurrently with rising lake levels before declining to trace levels by ~3000 cal yr BP. Increases in the abundance of non-arboreal pollen between ~8500 and ~4500 cal yr BP at the more eastern lakes suggest relatively delayed and truncated PFE influence, before the reestablishment of primarily boreal taxa by ~4500 cal yr BP, coincident with diatom-inferred increases in lake levels. This study shows that the PFE moved both farther east and north than previously determined, but generally agrees with established patterns in vegetation from other studied regions along the PFE.

A study of chironomid remains in the sediments of Lake JR01 on the Boothia Peninsula in the Central Canadian Arctic provides a high-resolution record of mean July air temperatures for the last 6.9 ka. Diatom and pollen studies have previously been published from this core. Peak Holocene temperatures occurred prior to 5.0 ka, a time when overall aquatic and terrestrial biological production was high. Chironomid-inferred summer air temperatures reached up to 7.5°C during this period. The region of Lake JR01 cooled over the mid- to late-Holocene, with high biological production between 6.1 and 5.4 ka. Biological production decreased again at ∼2 ka and the rate of cooling increased in the past 2 ka, with coolest temperatures occurring between 0.46 and 0.36 ka, coinciding with the Little Ice Age. Although biological production increased in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. During transitions, either warming or cooling, chironomid production increases, suggesting an ecosystem-level response to climate variability, seen at a number of lakes across the Arctic.

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.