The sensitivity of glacier mass balance to temperature and precipitation variations is crucial for informing models that simulate glaciers’ response to climate change. In this study, we simulate the glacier-wide mass balance of Mera Glacier with a surface energy-balance model, driven by in situ meteorological data, from 2016 to 2020. The analysis of the share of the energy fluxes of the glacier shows the radiative fluxes account for almost all the energy available during the melt season (May–October). However, turbulent fluxes are significant outside the monsoon (June–September). On an annual scale, melt is the dominant mass flux at all elevations, but 44% of the melt refreezes across the glacier. By reshuffling the available observations, we create 180 synthetic series of hourly meteorological forcings to force the model over a wide range of plausible climate conditions. A +1 (−1)°C change in temperature results in a −0.75 ± 0.17 (+0.93 ± 0.18) m w.e. change in glacier-wide mass balance and a +20 (−20)% change in precipitation results in a +0.52 ± 0.10 (−0.60 ± 0.11) m w.e. change. Our study highlights the need for physical-based approaches to produce consistent forcing datasets, and calls for more meteorological and glaciological measurements in High Mountain Asia.

Scenario–neutral methods are commonly used to rapidly compare system responses to changes in climate. Using glacier mass balance as a system response, we present a bottom-up, scenario–neutral method as an effective tool for preliminary and overview studies on glacier sensitivity and a complementary approach to traditional top–down methods. The method's main characteristic is its visual result: two–dimensional response surfaces depicting glacier mass balance. Their axes represent perturbations in temperature and precipitation relative to a baseline. The simplicity of our approach makes it applicable to all global glaciers. As a proof–of–concept, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) is used to perform a scenario–neutral glacier sensitivity analysis for four glaciers. In addition, the integration with a top–down approach is demonstrated by overlaying temperature and precipitation from four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Finally, the benefits of the method are discussed for decision–making and science communication. Assessing results shows that overall, this scenario–neutral method can provide useful information for the research of climate change impact on glacier mass, from aiding study design to science communication.

Knowledge of snow and firn-density change is needed to use elevation-change measurements to estimate glacier mass change. Additionally, firn-density evolution on glaciers is closely connected to meltwater percolation, refreezing and runoff, which are key processes for glacier mass balance and hydrology. Since 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glacier Project has recovered firn cores from a site on Wolverine Glacier in Alaska's Kenai Mountains. We use annual horizons in repeat cores to track firn densification and meltwater retention over seasonal and interannual timescales, and we use density measurements to quantify how the firn air content (FAC) changes through time. The results suggest the firn is densifying due primarily to compaction rather than refreezing. Liquid-water retention in the firn is transient, likely due to gravity-fed drainage and irreducible-water-content decreases that accompany decreasing porosity. We show that the uncertainty (±60 kg m−3) in the commonly used volume-to-mass conversion factor of 850 kg m−3 is an underestimation when glacier-wide FAC variability exceeds 12% of the glacier-averaged height change. Our results demonstrate how direct measurements of firn properties on mountain glaciers can be used to better quantify the uncertainty in geodetic volume-to-mass conversions.

Runoff from heavily glacierised catchments, its seasonality and the contribution from different storage units are highly relevant for assessing the seasonal and long-term water supply and flood prediction. Modelling studies on runoff from such basins often use simulated meteorological input (e.g. downscaling products) based on remote observations. We investigate the contribution of snow, firn and ice to runoff in the Vernagtferner basin (Ötztal Alps) from 2020 to 2022, using a physical modelling chain driven by a local observation network. We use the SNOWPACK model to simulate snow/ice development at observation sites and the Alpine3D model to calculate accumulation and melt at the catchment scale. Basin discharge is estimated using a gridded version of the HBV-ETH model. This approach largely reproduces observed glacier mass balances, while modelled and measured basin discharge are in good agreement. Snowmelt dominates discharge in the early melt season, while ice melt becomes increasingly important during summer. This is in strong contrast to the near-equilibrium mass balances in the 1980s, when ice melt played a minor role for annual discharge. The strong reduction of the accumulation area leads to a fundamental change from a snowmelt regime to an ice melt regime, which is especially pronounced in 2022.

Digital elevation models (DEMs) from the spaceborne interferometric radar mission TanDEM-X hold a large potential for glacier change assessments. However, a bias is potentially introduced through the penetration of the X-band signal into snow and firn. To improve our understanding of radar penetration on glaciers, we compare DEMs derived from the almost synchronous acquisition of TanDEM-X and Pléiades optical stereo-images of Grosser Aletschgletscher in March 2021. We found that the elevation bias – averaged per elevation bin – can reach up to 4–8 m in the accumulation area, depending on post co-registration corrections. Concurrent in situ measurements (ground-penetrating radar, snow cores, snow pits) reveal that the signal is not obstructed by the last summer horizon but reaches into perennial firn. Because of volume scattering, the TanDEM-X surface is determined by the scattering phase centre and does not coincide with a specific firn layer. We show that the bias corresponds to more than half of the decadal ice loss rate. To minimize the radar penetration bias, we recommend to select DEMs from the same time of the year and over long observation periods. A correction of the radar penetration bias is recommended, especially when combining optical and TanDEM-X DEMs.

This study investigates the geodetic mass balance of nearly all glaciers in the Ladakh region, which are crucial for local water security. Utilizing multiple digital elevation models from 2000 and 2021, we estimate glacier mass balances. Climatic drivers of glacier mass balances are explored using ERA5-Land reanalysis data, evaluated by in situ climate data. The study also examines the role of nonclimatic (morphological) variables on glacier mass balances. Results indicate Ladakh glaciers experienced negative mass balances during 2000–2021, with significant spatial variability. Western Ladakh glaciers lost slightly higher mass (−0.35 ± 0.07 to −0.37 ± 0.07 m w.e. a−1) than eastern Ladakh glaciers (−0.21 ± 0.07 to −0.33 ± 0.05 m w.e. a−1). While warming is the main driver of widespread mass loss in Ladakh, the spatial variability in mass loss is attributed to changes in regional precipitation and glacier morphological settings. Eastern Ladakh glaciers, being smaller and at higher elevations, experience lower mass loss, whereas western Ladakh glaciers, larger and at lower elevations, are more susceptible to the impact of temperature, resulting in higher mass loss. The study underscores the potentially greater vulnerability of western Ladakh glaciers to a warming climate compared to their eastern counterparts.

Glaciers cover 132 900 km2 around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but few are subject to annual mass-balance measurements. Lookalike Glacier and Davies Dome on James Ross Island have been monitored since 2009, providing the third longest mass-balance record for the northern Antarctic Peninsula. These glaciers had a balanced mass budget over the period 2009/10–2014/15 but started to lose their mass thereafter. Between 2014/15 and 2020/21, mass change rates were −0.15 ± 0.13 and −0.26 ± 0.11 m w.e. a−1 for Lookalike Glacier and Davies Dome, respectively. The mean equilibrium-line altitudes over this period at Lookalike Glacier (362 ± 18 m a.s.l.) and Davies Dome (>427 ± 22 m a.s.l.) are 51 and >34 m higher compared to the previous 6-year period. The mean accumulation area ratio values determined for the period 2014/15–2020/21 are lower than the balanced-budget ratio indicating that glaciers are out of balance with the current climate. The data confirm the transition from positive to negative mass-balance periods around 2014/15, which is attributed to the change in air temperature trends. The mean summer temperature increased by 0.9°C between the periods 2009/10–2014/15 and 2015/16–2020/21 and melt-season temperatures became predominantly positive.

Extreme heat events in the summer of 2022 were observed in Eurasia, North America and China. Glaciers are a unique indicator of climate change, and the European Alps experienced substantial glacier mass loss as a result of the conditions in 2022, which prompted a wide range of community concerns. However, relevant findings for glaciers in China have not been currently reported. Here, we document the response of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tien Shan to the extreme heat observed in 2022 based on in situ measurements that span more than 60 years. In 2022, Urumqi Glacier No. 1 exhibited the second largest annual mass loss on record, and the summer mass balance was the most negative on record. The hottest summer on record and relatively lower solid precipitation ratio contributed to the exceptional mass losses at Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in 2022, demonstrating the significant influence of heatwaves on extreme glacier melt in China.

The southern Patagonian glaciers are known for having extremely high ablation rates. Foehn winds are one of the suspected causes, however, their influence on the annual ablation, their interannual variations, and their relationship with climate change is not well understood. We analysed the in-situ meteorological data from 2003–2020 recorded at Glaciar Perito Moreno. Daily temperature lapse rates varied substantially, from −7.8°C km−1 to 10.4°C km−1, due to foehn, fog, and katabatic winds. We find that, on average, foehn events occurred 1073 hours per year, and accounted for 20% of the annual surface ablation. This increase in surface ablation rates during foehn events occurs as a result of the enhanced sensible heat flux and net shortwave radiation. The downglacier-directed foehn winds warm the air mass over the glacier, but because of the high humidity of the foehn here, they often release latent heat by condensation. Variations in the Amundsen Sea Low influence foehn occurrence by modulating the westerly winds, which is related to the hemispherical ocean and atmospheric variability. Our results show that the local climate play an important role in the surface melting of Patagonian glaciers.

Innovations in geodesy enable widespread analysis of glacier surface elevation change and geodetic mass balance. However, coincident glacier area data are less widely available, causing inconsistent handling of glacier area change. Here we quantify the bias introduced into meters water equivalent (m w.e.) specific geodetic mass balance results when using a fixed, maximum glacier area, and illustrate the bias for five North American glaciers. Sites span latitudes from the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains (48°N) to the Central Alaska Range (63°N) between 1948 and 2021. Results show that fixed (maximum) area treatment subdues the m w.e. mass change signal, underestimating mass balance by up to 19% in our test cases. This bias scales with relative glacier area change and the mass balance magnitude. Thus, the bias for specific geodetic mass balances will be most pronounced across rapidly deglaciating regions. Our analysis underscores the need for temporally resolved glacier area in geodetic mass balance studies.

Widespread glacier losses have been observed in most glaciated regions on Earth during recent decades, with a typical pattern of strong thinning in their lower reaches and limited elevation changes in their accumulation areas. Here, we use Pléiades satellite stereo-images of the Mont-Blanc massif (Alps) to reveal that thinning took place through the entire elevation range during the exceptional 2021/22 mass-balance year. Above 3000 m a.s.l. on Argentière glacier and Mer de Glace, thinning rates exceeded 3.5 m a−1 while almost no change occurred during the previous 9 years. Below 3000 m a.s.l., these anomalous thinning rates are essentially explained by changes in surface mass balance. At higher altitudes, other processes such as firn densification may play a role. Our analysis shows that high altitude glaciers, mostly stable during the last 100 years, are now responding to the impact of climate change.

The Jostedalsbreen ice cap is mainland Europe's largest ice cap and accommodates 20% (458 km2 in 2019) of the total glacier area of mainland Norway. Jostedalsbreen and its meltwater contribute to global sea-level rise and to local water management, hydropower and tourism economies and livelihoods. In this study, we construct a digital terrain model (DTM) of the ice cap from 1966 aerial photographs, which by comparing to an airborne LiDAR DTM from 2020, we compute changes in surface elevation and geodetic mass balances. The area mapped in both surveys cover about 3/4 of the ice cap area and 49 of 82 glaciers. The measured glacier area has decreased from 363.4 km2 in 1966 to 332.9 km2 in 2019, i.e. a change of −30 km2 or −8.4% (−0.16% a−1), which is in line with the percentage reduction in area for Jostedalsbreen as a whole. The mean geodetic mass balance over the 49 glaciers was −0.15 ± 0.01 m w.e. a−1, however, large variability is evident between glaciers, e.g. Nigardsbreen (−0.05 m w.e. a−1), Austdalsbreen (−0.28 m w.e. a−1) and Tunsbergdalsbreen (−0.36 m w.e. a−1) confirming differences also found by the glaciological records for Nigardsbreen and Austdalsbreen.

Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios.

The complex topography and size of High Mountain Asia (HMA) result in large differences in glacier mass-balance variability and climate sensitivity. Current understanding of these sensitivities is limited by simplifications in past studies’ model structure. This study overcomes this limitation by using a mass-balance model to investigate the climatic mass-balance variability and climate sensitivity of 16 glaciers covering major mountain ranges in HMA. Generally, glaciers in the southeast have higher mass turnover while glaciers at the margins of HMA show higher interannual mass-balance variability. All glaciers are most sensitive to temperature perturbations in summer. The climatic mass balance of 15 glaciers is most sensitive to precipitation perturbations in summer or spring and summer, even if the seasonal accumulation peak is not in summer. Only one glacier's mass balance (Chhota Shigri Glacier) is most sensitive to precipitation perturbations in winter. Glaciers with high mass turnover and high summer-precipitation ratio are more sensitive to temperature perturbations. Sensitivity experiments reveal that besides the non-linearity of mass-balance temperature sensitivity, mass-balance precipitation sensitivity is non-linear as well. Furthermore, resolving the diurnal cycle of albedo, (re)freezing and the differentiation between liquid and solid precipitation are important to assess climate sensitivity of glaciers in HMA.

The geodetic mass balance of a glacier corresponds to glacier-wide volume changes, converted to mass changes using density assumptions. It is typically calculated by differencing multi-temporal digital elevation models. In this study, we show how the annual geodetic mass balance of a glacier can be derived from uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) data. The presented workflow is applied to two small- to medium-sized glaciers in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan (Central Asia): Bordu glacier and Sary-Tor glacier. The obtained geodetic mass balance is compared with the glaciological mass balance derived from a network of ablation stakes and snow pits. A previously calibrated mass-balance model is used to correct for the difference in acquisition dates. The results show that the determined geodetic mass balance matches closely with the glaciological mass balance. Besides, for both glaciers the geodetic mass balance does not seem to be particularly sensitive to the assumptions regarding volume-to-mass conversion. Therefore, our results demonstrate that UAVs can serve as a valuable instrument to quantify the annual geodetic mass balance and to validate the glaciological mass balance. The conventional glaciological mass-balance estimation often relies on interpolation and extrapolation methods, whereas UAVs offer the potential for direct data acquisition over the entire glacier surface.

Glaciological mass-balance measurements have been the backbone of internationally coordinated glacier monitoring. The resulting annual observations have been used to understand glacier reactions to climate change, and to assess both regional and global glacier mass changes and related contributions to runoff and sea-level rise. However, the comparability of annual observations is hampered by differences in survey periods and mass-balance amplitudes between glaciers, regions and hemispheres. This study presents a simple approach to temporally downscale glaciological mass balance using seasonal observations and sine functions. The proposed analytical model allows reconstruction of the seasonal course of glacier mass balance at weekly to monthly resolution from only annual or seasonal observations. Strengths and limitations of this analytical approach are discussed and compared with results from numerical mass-balance modelling. Potential applications include seasonal corrections of glaciological and geodetic observations and comparisons to monthly results from spaceborne gravimetry and altimetry.

The uncertainty of glacier change projections is largely influenced by glacier models. In this study, we focus on temperature-index mass-balance (MB) models and their calibration. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we examine the influence of different surface-type dependent degree-day factors, temporal climate resolutions (daily, monthly) and downscaling options (temperature lapse rates, temperature and precipitation corrections) for 88 glaciers with in-situ observations. Our findings indicate that higher spatial and temporal resolution observations enhance MB gradient representation due to an improved calibration. The addition of surface-type distinction in the model also improves MB gradients, but the lack of independent observations limits our ability to demonstrate the added value of increased model complexity. Some model choices have systematic effects, for example weaker temperature lapse rates result in smaller projected glaciers. However, we often find counter balancing effects, such as the sensitivity to different degree-day factors for snow, firn and ice, which depends on how the glacier accumulation area ratio changes in the future. Similarly, using daily versus monthly climate data can affect glaciers differently depending on the shifting balance between melt and solid precipitation thresholds. Our study highlights the importance of considering minor model design differences to predict future glacier volumes and runoff accurately.

Empirical glacier mass-balance models are commonly used in assessments of glacier and runoff evolution. Recent satellite-borne geodetic mass-balance observations of global coverage facilitate large-scale model calibration that previously relied on sparse in situ observations of glacier mass change. Geodetic observations constitute temporally aggregated mass-balance signals with significant uncertainty, raising questions about the role of observations with different temporal resolutions and uncertainties in constraining model parameters. We employ a Bayesian approach and demonstrate the sensitivity of parameter values to commonly used mass-balance observations of seasonal, annual and decadal resolution with uncertainties characteristic to in situ and satellite-borne observations. For glaciers along a continentality gradient in Norway, the use of annual mass balances results in around 20% lower magnitude of modelled ablation and accumulation (1960–2020), compared to employing seasonal balances. Decadal mass balance also underestimates magnitudes of ablation and accumulation, but parameter values are strongly influenced by the prior distribution. The datasets yield similar estimates of annual mass balance with different margins of uncertainty. Decadal observations are afflicted with considerable uncertainty in mass-balance sensitivity due to high parameter uncertainty. Our results highlight the importance of seasonal observations when model applications require accurate magnitudes of ablation, e.g. to estimate meltwater runoff.

Recent satellite measurements of glacier mass balance show mountain glaciers all over the world had generally negative mass balances in the first decades of the 21st century. We analyse archived data for surface mass balance and summer temperature for 37 Northern Hemisphere glaciers with data for 1961–2020. We compare mean annual balances for 1961–90 and 1991–2020, and for 25 glaciers explain the changes in annual balance by changes in winter and summer balances. Mean balances 1961–90 were already substantially negative for 19 out of the 25 glaciers. Changes in winter balances from 1961–90 to 1991–2020 average close to zero but changes in summer balance are strongly negative. Mean balance 1991–2020 is strongly correlated with change in summer balance, weakly correlated with winter balance change, and strongly correlated with mean balance 1961–90. We estimate 1991–2020 summer temperature anomalies for the 37 glaciers and confirm that summer temperature anomalies for 1991–2020 were higher for the Alps, by nearly 1.5°C, than for other areas. Substantial variations in the temperature – sensitivity of summer balances for individual glaciers of −0.2 to −1.0 m w.e. a−1 °C−1 deserve further study.

Calving glaciers are highly sensitive to bedrock geometry near their terminus. To understand the mechanisms controlling rapid calving glaciers’ mass loss, we measured the lake topography in front of four lake-terminating glaciers in the southern Patagonian icefield. Using remotely sensed surface elevation data, we calculated flotation height and surface slope and compared those with changes in ice-front position, surface speed and surface elevation. Rapid retreat accompanied by rapid flow acceleration and ice surface steepening was observed at Glaciar Upsala from 2008–2011, and at O'Higgins and Viedma glaciers from 2016–present. Surface lowering in the lower part of Glaciar Upsala reached 30 m a−1 and was 18 m a−1 and 12 m a−1 at O'Higgins and Viedma glaciers, respectively. Near- or super-buoyant conditions were observed prior to these events, leading to gradual flow acceleration due to low effective pressure and decoupling from the bed. The super-buoyant condition and gradual acceleration imply full-thickness buoyant calving, which causes the ice front to retreat from the shallow bedrock topography with substantial flow acceleration. We conclude that the buoyancy force plays an important role in the rapid mass loss of lake-terminating glaciers in southern Patagonia.