Although rabies incidence in humans in Western Europe is low, the repeated importation of rabid animals from enzootic areas threatens the rabies-free status of terrestrial animals and challenges the public health systems in this area. Most rabid animals imported into the European Union (EU) in recent years came from Morocco. The aim of this study was to develop a probabilistic risk assessment model to estimate the probability of rabies introduction, which was applied to the risk to the EU from dogs coming from Morocco. The mean annual probability of rabies introduction was 0·21 (90% CI 0·02–0·65). The pathways that contributed the most to this probability were: (a) EU citizens who adopted a dog in Morocco (59% of the total probability) and (b) EU citizens who travelled with their dog to Morocco by ferry (34% of the total probability). The model showed a marked seasonality in the risk of rabies with almost 40% of the annual probability occurring during the months of July and August. The application of stricter border controls (assuming 100% compliance) would result in a >270-fold reduction in the likelihood of rabies introduction into the EU from Morocco.

Rabies was eradicated from the UK in 1922 through strict controls of dog movement and investigation of every incident of disease. Amendments were made to the UK quarantine laws and the Pet Travel Scheme (PETS) was subsequently introduced in 2000 for animals entering the UK from qualifying listed countries. European Regulation 998/2003 on the non-commercial movement of pet animals initiated the European Union Pet Movement Policy (EUPMP) in July 2004. The introduction of EUPMP harmonized the movement of pet animals within the EU (EUPMPlisted) but raised the possibility of domestic animals entering the UK from a non-EU state where rabies is endemic (EUPMPunlisted). A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via companion animals that are incubating the disease and enter through PETS or EUPMP compared to quarantine. Specifically, the risk was assessed by estimating the annual probability of rabies entering the UK and the number of years between rabies entries for each scheme. The model identified that the probability of rabies entering the UK via the three schemes is highly dependent on compliance. If 100% compliance is assumed, PETS and EUPMPunlisted (at the current level of importation) present a lower risk than quarantine, i.e. the number of years between rabies entry is more than 170 721 years for PETS and 60 163 years for EUPMPunlisted compared to 41 851 years for quarantine (with 95% certainty). If less than 100% compliance is assumed, PETS and EUPMPunlisted (at the current level of importation) present a higher risk. In addition, EUPMPlisted and EUPMPunlisted (at an increased level of importation) present a higher risk than quarantine or PETS at 100% compliance and at an uncertain level of compliance.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a disease of pigs that imposes major hardship on the industry of infected regions. The recent history of CSF epidemics suggests that animal movements remain the main source of CSF virus (CSFV) infection for susceptible populations in Europe. This study presents an assessment of the risk of introducing CSFV into Spain through the importation of live susceptible animals. Results suggest that, if prevailing conditions persist, introduction of CSFV into Spain is likely to occur on average every 9 years and that introduction is almost three times more likely to occur via domestic pigs than through wild boars. The highest risk was concentrated in March and in the Northeastern provinces of Spain. Results were consistent with the time and location of previous CSFV introductions into the country. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the CSF prevention programme in Spain.

Up to October 2004, dogs and cats imported into Japan were subjected to a quarantine regimen which consisted of vaccination and a 30- to 365-day waiting period in the country of origin and a 14-day quarantine period upon arrival in Japan. This regimen was replaced by a new one, consisting of vaccination, antibody level titration and a 180-day waiting period in the country of origin, in November 2004. To evaluate the effect of this policy change, a quantitative risk assessment was undertaken. The risk of rabies entering Japan through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA under the old – and new – regimens was quantitatively assessed and compared. Under the new regimen, rabies will enter Japan once every 4932 years (90% confidence interval 1812–13 412 years) through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA. Under the old regimen, rabies would enter Japan once every 70 years (39–205 years), 83 years (45–267 years) or 190 years (104–609 years) assuming that the animal departs the country of origin 30 days, 180 days or 365 days after vaccination, respectively. This indicates the policy change would reduce the risk by a factor of 1/25–1/70.