Governments’ economic policies need to be based on a coherent view of the role of innovation and productivity in sustaining growth. This article analyses advice on fostering innovation from Australia’s main statutory economics adviser, the Productivity Commission. It argues that the Productivity Commission’s comprehensive 2007 report, Public Support for Science and Innovation, contributed to a policy vacuum hampering government support for innovation for nearly a decade. First, within the Productivity Commission’s understanding of innovation was a contradiction between its required policy targeting criteria and the impossibility of meeting these criteria. Second, the resulting stance on innovation policy was at odds with research and theory on the drivers of innovation and hence growth – particularly innovation systems theories and those based on evolutionary economics. The ensuing innovation policy vacuum suggests that the Productivity Commission placed the abstract ideological ‘purity’ of neoclassical economic theory above empirical exploration of how government can best support Australia’s future economic development. Since late 2015, moves to fill this policy vacuum have included a Senate inquiry, a government department restructure, and the creation of a new Innovation and Science statutory advisory board. Whether these initiatives foster sustained innovation will depend on the extent to which they adopt approaches based on innovation systems or evolutionary economics, and transcend the static neoclassical mindset espoused by the Productivity Commission.

The starting point for this article is the excellent article by Professor Marglin on the dangers of climate change. He outlines a broad remedial prescription, a new economics based on ecological concerns and a broadly based cultural revolution to change people’s thinking. We agree with Marglin that the prevailing neoclassical analysis is fundamentally flawed because inter alia it adheres to individuals’ independent (rather than inter-dependent) utility functions. It is argued that ultimately the problem of the ecosystem, and indeed violent threats of mass destruction that we constantly face cannot be solved without the insights that community and spiritual thinking bring us.

This article traces the role of the state in developmental theory and practice, paying particular attention to public sector management. The early orthodoxy of modernisation theory put the state at the centre of development, giving it prime responsibility for generating development. Realisations of the shortcomings of modernisation theory and disappointment with its results led to the rise of neoliberal approaches in development thinking and action, with a focus on the shrinking state. However, in turn, the efficacy of neoliberalism has been questioned, and its human toll has been critiqued. Coupled with evidence of the success of the East Asian developmental states, the result has been a rethinking of the state and a new acknowledgment of its central role in development. Strong institutions and efficient, effective and responsive public sector management have been identified as key ingredients of capable states that made development happen. In outlining this trajectory, the article introduces the case studies that comprise this symposium.

Exposure to extreme shocks in early life is found to have a lasting impact in adulthood. Exploiting the variation in exposure measured by age and intensity of an earthquake, we evaluate the impact of a 7.7 MW earthquake in Gujarat, India, on the health stock of children who were in utero or below three years. Using the India Human Development Survey data from 2004–05 and earthquake intensity data, we find an affected girl child to be shorter by at least 2.5 cm at the age of 3–6 years. The earthquake seems to have destroyed the household infrastructures and health facilities, affecting the expecting mothers and newborn children. The households using services to meet nutritional needs of children and pregnant women seem to be least affected. Our findings recommend faster reconstruction activities and highlight the importance of universal healthcare and nutritional delivery services to mitigate the impacts of early-life shocks.

Adapting agricultural systems to changes in seasonal precipitation is critical for the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka. This paper presents evidence on the adoption drivers and the welfare impacts of agricultural strategies adopted by Sri Lankan rice farmers to adapt to low rainfall conditions. We estimate the causal impact of adopting different adaptive strategies across three different dimensions: (a) sensitivity to water stress, (b) household productivity, and (c) household livelihood conditions. The results highlight important trade-offs faced by farmers between reducing vulnerability to water stress and maximizing profitability and welfare outcomes. These findings are important for informing policies to support climate adaptation among smallholders, and to build and improve the climate resilience of Sri Lanka's rice sector.

The literature lacks consensus on the role of currency regimes in explaining external competitiveness. Countries not only differ in terms of currency regimes, but can also have different institutional arrangements, namely trade agreements and inflation targeting (IT) frameworks in addition to the overall quality of governance. Hence, using the real effective exchange rate and by covering 35 developing countries over the period 1975–2014, we investigate the role of currency regimes in explaining the degree of misalignment while considering institutional factors. First, we find that intermediate regimes limit the currency misalignment with greater financial openness (FO). Second, non-reciprocal preferential trade agreements improve price competitiveness, whereas free trade and reciprocal ones can only be beneficial with a higher degree of FO. Third, misalignments in fixed regimes decline in the presence of stronger institutions or in countries with an IT type of monetary policy framework. The above results remain robust to alternative specifications.

Various methods have been applied to evaluating the economic viability of public investments in tourism. In this article, we capitalize on the strengths of computable general equilibrium and cost-benefit analytical techniques and develop an integrated approach to evaluating public investments in tourism. We apply the approach to the evaluation of a US$6.25 million investment in tourism in Uruguay from the perspective of a multilateral development bank and a beneficiary government. These perspectives differ in a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) due to the timing of the costs incurred. The integrated approach is powerful in that it captures first and subsequent rounds of investment impacts of benefits and costs; resource diversion and constraints are accounted for, and the estimation of benefits is consistent with the welfare economics underpinnings of CBA.

Benefit-cost analyses of education policies in low- and middle-income countries have historically used the effect of education on future wages to estimate benefits. Strong evidence also points to female education reducing both the under-five mortality rates of their children and adult mortality rates. A more complete analysis would thus add the value of mortality risk reduction to wage increases. This paper estimates how net benefits and benefit-cost ratios respond to the values used to estimate education’s mortality-reducing impact including variation in these estimates. We utilize a ‘standardized sensitivity analysis’ to generate a range of valuations of education’s impact on mortality risks. We include alternative ways of adjusting these values for income and age differences. Our analysis is for one additional year of schooling in lower-middle-income countries, incremental to the current mean. Our analysis shows a range of benefit-cost ratios ranging from 3.2 to 6.7, and net benefits ranging from $2,800 to $7,300 per student. Benefits from mortality risk reductions account for 40% to 70% of the overall benefits depending on the scenario. Thus, accounting for changes in mortality risks in addition to wage increases noticeably enhances the value of already attractive education investments.

We conduct a benefit-cost analysis of a package of early childhood interventions that can improve nutrition outcomes in Haiti. Using the Lives Saved Tool, we expect that this package can prevent approximately 55,000 cases of child stunting, 7,600 low-weight births and 28,000 cases of maternal anemia annually, if coverage reaches 90% of the target population. In addition, we expect these nutrition improvements will avoid 1,830 under-five deaths, 80 maternal deaths and 900,000 episodes of child illness every year. Those who avoid stunting will experience lifetime productivity benefits equivalent to five times gross national income per capita in present value terms, at a 5% discount rate. While previous benefit-cost analyses of this specific package have only estimated the lifetime productivity benefits of avoided stunting, this paper also accounts for reductions in fatal and non-fatal health risks. In the base case scenario, the annualized net benefits of the intervention equal Haitian gourdes 13.4 billion (USD 211 million) and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) is 5.2. Despite these substantial benefits, the package may not be the most efficient use of a marginal dollar, with alternative interventions to improve human capital yielding BCRs approximately three to four times higher than the base estimate.

The primary focus of this paper is to offer guidance on the analysis of time streams of effects that a project may have so that they can be discounted appropriately. This requires a framework that identifies the common parameters that need to be assessed, whether conducting cost-effectiveness or benefit-cost analysis. The quantification and conversion of the time streams of different effects into their equivalent health, health care cost or consumption effects avoids embedding multiple arguments in discounting policies. This helps to identify where parameters are likely to differ in particular contexts, what type of evidence would be relevant, what is currently known and how this evidence might be strengthened. The current evidence available to support the assessment of the key parameters is discussed and possible estimates and default assumptions are suggested. Reporting the results in an extensive way is recommended. This makes the assessments required explicit so the impact of alternative assumptions can be explored and analysis updated as better estimates evolve. Some projects will have effects across different countries where some or all of these parameters will differ. Therefore, the net present value of a project will be the sum of the country specific net present values rather than the sum of effects across countries discounted at some common rate.

An independent Scotland would be a small European state. Small states may be at a disadvantage in world markets but can also adapt successfully. There are different modes of adaptation, notably the market-liberal mode and the social investment state. Either mode is dependent on internal institutions, social relationships and modes of policymaking. It is not possible to pick and choose items of different models since they have an internal coherence. The Scottish White Paper on independence supports the social investment state. Scotland has some, but not all, of the prerequisites for this so that independence would require internal adaptation.

Une grande partie des politiques de développement repose sur l’envoi de transferts aux économies connaissant des difficultés de développement. Si ces aides semblent favorables au bien être des agents, leurs effets sur la croissance de long terme des économies restent ambigus ou parfois décevants. L’objectif de cet article est de contribuer à mieux cerner les conséquences d’une politique de transferts sur la dynamique de long terme d’une économie. Pour cela, on utilise un modèle à générations imbriquées, au sein duquel sont présents un secteur d’accumulation du capital humain et un processus d’héritage de niveau de vie. L’analyse numérique du modèle permet de montrer que selon l’importance des transferts et la préférence des agents pour le loisir, la politique d’aide peut se révéler favorable ou défavorable à la croissance de l’économie.