Tidewater glaciers frequently advance and retreat in ways uncoupled from climate forcing. This complicates the task of forecasting the evolution of individual glaciers and the overall Greenland ice sheet, much of which is drained by tidewater glaciers. Past observational research has identified a set of processes collectively known as the tidewater glacier cycle (TGC) to describe tidewater glacier evolution in four stages: the advancing stage, the extended stage, the retreating stage and the retreated stage. Once glacier retreat is initiated, the TGC is thought to depend largely on the glacier's calving rate, which is controlled by fjord geometry. However, there has been little modeling or systematic observational work on the topic. Measuring calving rates directly is challenging and thus we developed an averaged von Mises stress state at the glacier terminus as a calving rate proxy that can be estimated from surface velocities, ice thickness, a terminus position and subglacial topography. We then analyzed 44 tidewater glaciers in Greenland and assessed the current state in the TGC for them. Of the 44 glaciers, we find that fjord geometry is causing instability in ten cases, vs stability in seven, with 11 in rapid retreat and 16 have been historically stable.

Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) are frequently used in glaciological applications, among other things, for photogrammetric assessments of calving dynamics at glacier termini. However, UAVs are often limited by battery endurance and weight constraints on the scientific payload that can be added. At Sálajiegna, the largest freshwater calving glacier in Sweden, we explored the combined use of a versatile maritime robot (uncrewed surface vehicle, USV) and a UAV to characterise Sálajiegna's short-term and seasonal calving front dynamics and mass loss. For this, a photogrammetric payload suite was integrated into the USV. Consecutive USV surveys of Sálajiegna's front, followed by point cloud based calving detection and surface-reconstruction based volume quantification, allowed for a detailed description of calving-induced terminus changes and is hence suggested as a viable alternative to the differencing of digital elevation models. By combining USV and UAV measurements, we identify sectors of high and low calving activity, a calving front retreat of up to 56 m and a thinning rate in the terminus region of 5.4 cm d−1 during the summer of 2022.

Ice-contact lakes modify glacier geometry and dynamics by shifting the majority of mass loss from the ice surface to the terminus. Lake-terminating glaciers are known to experience greater thinning rates and higher velocities than land-terminating glaciers, but the controls on variability in surface elevation change and ice flow between lake-terminating glaciers in different regions remain poorly explored. We combined existing datasets of glacier velocity, surface elevation change and glacial lake area to characterise the evolution of 352 lake-terminating and land-terminating glaciers within three Himalayan sub-regions between 2000 and 2019. These analyses show that the influence of ice-contact lakes propagates up-glacier across only the lowermost 30% of the hypsometric distribution, even where lakes are well established. We find that ice-contact lakes only affect glacier behaviour when the lakes reach an advanced evolutionary stage; most clearly manifested in the Eastern Himalaya by statistically robust differences in glacier-wide surface elevation change between lake-terminating (–0.68 ± 0.05 m a–1) and land-terminating (–0.54 ± 0.04 m a–1) glaciers. These differences are driven by the presence of a greater number of well-developed ice-contact lakes in the Eastern Himalaya compared to in the Western and Central Himalaya, resulting from greater mass loss rates to date.

We investigate the physical basis of the crevasse-depth (CD) calving law by analysing relationships between glaciological stresses and calving behaviour at Sermeq Kujalleq (Store Glacier), Greenland. Our observations and model simulations show that the glacier has a stable position defined by a compressive arch between lateral pinning points. Ice advance beyond the arch results in calving back to the stable position; conversely, if melt-undercutting forces the ice front behind the stable position, it readvances because ice velocities exceed subaqueous melt rates. This behaviour is typical of self-organising criticality, in which the stable ice-front position acts as an attractor between unstable super-critical and sub-critical regimes. This perspective provides strong support for a ‘position-law’ approach to modelling calving at Sermeq Kujalleq, because any calving ‘rate’ is simply a by-product of how quickly ice is delivered to the critical point. The CD calving law predicts ice-front position from the penetration of surface and basal crevasse fields, and accurately simulates super-critical calving back to the compressive arch and melt-driven calving into the sub-critical zone. The CD calving law reflects the glaciological controls on calving at Sermeq Kujalleq and exhibits considerable skill in simulating its mean position and seasonal fluctuations.

To investigate the mechanisms driving recent changes in outlet glaciers in Antarctica, we measured the glacier front position, flow velocity and surface elevation of five outlet glaciers flowing into Lützow-Holm Bay in East Antarctica. After a steady advance from 2008 to 2015, all the glaciers synchronously retreated by 0.4–6.0 km between 2016 and 2018. The initiation of the retreat coincided with the breakup of land-fast sea ice in Lützow-Holm Bay in 2016, which resulted in the largest sea-ice loss in the region since 1998. Similar flow variations and surface elevation changes were observed near the grounding line of Shirase, Skallen and Telen glaciers. The slowdown in 2011–15 (by 13%) and the speedup in 2016–18 (by 7%) coincided with the respective increase and decrease in surface elevation. Simultaneous retreat and acceleration after the land-fast sea-ice breakup implies that sea ice has a significant influence on glacier dynamics. Thickening/thinning observed near the grounding line was attributed to a reduced/enhanced stretching flow regime during the deceleration/acceleration period. Our results demonstrate that land-fast sea ice affects not only terminus positions, but also the flow speed and ice thickness of the Antarctic glaciers.

Calving glaciers are highly sensitive to bedrock geometry near their terminus. To understand the mechanisms controlling rapid calving glaciers’ mass loss, we measured the lake topography in front of four lake-terminating glaciers in the southern Patagonian icefield. Using remotely sensed surface elevation data, we calculated flotation height and surface slope and compared those with changes in ice-front position, surface speed and surface elevation. Rapid retreat accompanied by rapid flow acceleration and ice surface steepening was observed at Glaciar Upsala from 2008–2011, and at O'Higgins and Viedma glaciers from 2016–present. Surface lowering in the lower part of Glaciar Upsala reached 30 m a−1 and was 18 m a−1 and 12 m a−1 at O'Higgins and Viedma glaciers, respectively. Near- or super-buoyant conditions were observed prior to these events, leading to gradual flow acceleration due to low effective pressure and decoupling from the bed. The super-buoyant condition and gradual acceleration imply full-thickness buoyant calving, which causes the ice front to retreat from the shallow bedrock topography with substantial flow acceleration. We conclude that the buoyancy force plays an important role in the rapid mass loss of lake-terminating glaciers in southern Patagonia.

Knowledge of frontal ablation from marine-terminating glaciers (i.e., mass lost at the calving face) is critical for constraining glacier mass balance, improving projections of mass change, and identifying the processes that govern frontal mass loss. Here, we discuss the challenges involved in computing frontal ablation and the unique issues pertaining to both glaciers and ice sheets. Frontal ablation estimates require numerous datasets, including glacier terminus area change, thickness, surface velocity, density, and climatic mass balance. Observations and models of these variables have improved over the past decade, but significant gaps and regional discrepancies remain, and better quantification of temporal variability in frontal ablation is needed. Despite major advances in satellite-derived large-scale datasets, large uncertainties remain with respect to ice thickness, depth-averaged velocities, and the bulk density of glacier ice close to calving termini or grounding lines. We suggest ways in which we can move toward globally complete frontal ablation estimates, highlighting areas where we need improved datasets and increased collaboration.

Tidewater glaciers are an important and difficult part of the cryosphere to study owing to their complex nature and often inaccessible and physically challenging environments. The interaction of glacier and fjord processes furthermore presents particular observational challenges. Modelling provides a possible solution to these issues, but, at the glacier scale, the processual complexities require a 3-D full-Stokes approach that is computationally expensive. Additionally, the lack of data for model validation or constraints imposes further obstacles. Despite this, progress on modelling such glaciers with explicit inclusion of all relevant processes is being made. The key remaining challenges are including more realistic representations of calving and coupling 3-D glacier modelling with 3-D fjord circulation modelling to allow inclusion of the effect of cross-fjord circulation. We are confident, however, that these issues can be resolved and will be resolved over the next decade.

Calculation of the calving loss of tidewater glaciers depends on accurate bedrock information. In regional to global-scale projections of future tidewater glacier evolution this dependence is problematic. Bedrock topographies are often unknown and can only be modelled from surface properties. Existing approaches, however, mostly underestimate the ice thickness towards the calving fronts of marine-terminating glaciers. This implies a compromised performance of global-scale projection models which often employ functions of water depth at the calving fronts of tidewater glaciers. Here, we present a sensitivity study that analyses the impact of five different bedrock datasets on projected mass losses from the tidewater glacier Hansbreen in southern Svalbard. Our modelling study calculates the glacier's response to artificial mass-balance forcing. We show that bedrock inaccuracies may lead to a substantially deviating retreat behaviour. The common underestimation of frontal ice thickness/water depth in the modelled bedrock datasets induces an underestimation of sea level-relevant mass losses over the first several decades of modelling. The duration of this period is reduced when assuming warmer climates. Our results thus underline the importance of accurate bedrock topography data for the reliability of glacier evolution projections and for the accuracy of the temporal trajectories of related sea level-relevant mass losses.

Ice streams are sites of ice-sheet drainage and together with other processes, such as calving, have an impact on deglaciation rates and ice-sheet mass balance. Proglacial lake deposits provide records of ice-sheet deglaciation and have the potential to supplement other paleoclimate records. Oneida Lake, northeastern USA, contains a thick proglacial lake sequence that buries evidence of ice streaming and a paleo-calving margin that developed during retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Previous high-resolution digital elevation models identified the Oneida Ice Stream from glacial landforms northwest of the lake. In this study, we utilize seismic refractions from a multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection dataset to estimate the thickness of glacial deposits using seismic tomography. With this method we constrain the depth to top of Paleozoic strata, especially in areas where the reflection data yielded poor outcomes and validate our reflection data in regions of good coverage. We demonstrate that where long offset seismic data are available, the first-arrival tomography method is useful in studies of formerly glaciated basins. Our study identifies a ~108 m thick sedimentary section and potentially long paleoclimate record in Oneida Lake, and identifies a paleotopographic low that likely encouraged formation of the Oneida Ice Stream.

Future mass loss projections of the Greenland ice sheet require understanding of the processes at a glacier terminus, especially of iceberg calving. We present detailed and high-rate terrestrial radar interferometer observations of Eqip Sermia and Bowdoin Glacier, two outlet glaciers in Greenland with comparable dimensions and investigate iceberg calving, surface elevation, velocity, strain rates and their links to air temperature, tides and topography. The results reveal that the two glaciers exhibit very different flow and calving behaviour on different timescales. Ice flow driven by a steep surface slope with several topographic steps leads to high velocities, areas of extension and intense crevassing, which triggers frequent but small calving events independent of local velocity gradients. In contrast, ice flow under smooth surface slopes leaves the ice relatively intact, such that sporadic large-scale calving events dominate, which initiate in areas with high shearing. Flow acceleration caused by enhanced meltwater input and tidal velocity variations were observed for terminus sections close to floatation. Firmly grounded terminus sections showed no tidal signal and a weak short-term reaction to air temperature. These results demonstrate reaction timescales to external forcings from hours to months, which are, however, strongly dependent on local terminus geometry.

Mass loss at the Greenland Ice Sheet is influenced by atmospheric processes controlling its surface mass balance, and by submarine melt and calving where glaciers terminate in fjords. There, an ice mélange – a composite matrix of calved ice bergs and sea ice – may provide a buttressing force on a glacier terminus and control terminus dynamics. Kangerlussuaq Glacier is a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet, for which recent major retreat events in 2004/2005 and 2016–2018 coincided with the absence of an ice mélange in Kangerlussuaq Fjord. To better understand the response of Kangerlussuaq Glacier to climatic and oceanic drivers, a 2D flowline model is employed. Results indicate that an ice mélange buttressing force exerts a major control on calving frequency and rapid retreat. When an ice mélange forms in Kangerlussuaq Fjord, it provides stabilising forces and conditions favourable for winter terminus re-advance. When it fails to form during consecutive years, model results indicate that Kangerlussuaq Glacier is primed to retreat into the large overdeepenings in Kangerlussuaq Fjord, and to terminus positions more than 30 km farther inland, implying that excessive mass loss from Kangerlussuaq Glacier by the year 2065 cannot be excluded.

We perform Bayesian inference of the parameters of a time-dependent model of ice flow and calving at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland. We find that, while a time-independent calving parameterization can recover the mean observed terminus position, such a model is unable to recover sub-annual variability, even when forced with seasonally varying climate. To address this, we develop a simple stochastic model relating surface runoff rates and calving threshold. Again inferring model parameters from observations, we find that this parameterization is able to reproduce observations with respect to both mean position and characteristic temporal variability. This result demonstrates the importance of considering potential sub-annual controls on calving rates in numerical models, which may include variable undercutting rates or surface runoff-dependent surface crevasse propagation.

Iceberg calving is one of the major mechanisms of ice loss from tidewater glaciers and ice sheets, but obtaining accurate estimates of ice discharge that are both continuous and accurate is a challenging task. Recent results have demonstrated the effective application of passive cryoacoustics – the use of naturally generated sounds to study the cryosphere – to quantify subaerial calving fluxes. However, little is known about the acoustic signatures of submarine calving. This study investigates the underwater noise from 656 subaerial and 162 submarine calving events observed at Hansbreen, Svalbard in the summers of 2016 and 2017. Statistical analysis of the acoustic signal shows that the normalized power of the calving noise is log-normally distributed regardless of the calving mode. However, submarine events can be distinguished from subaerial events by using the shape parameter of the log-normal distribution paired with the calving signal duration. The newly developed classification model may potentially be used for two purposes: (1) to study potential causal relationships between these two calving modes and (2) to separate calving fluxes into subaerial and submarine components. The latter will also require knowledge of the relationship between ice mass and sound spectral level for submarine calving events.

Iceberg calving, the process where icebergs detach from glaciers, remains poorly understood. Moreover, few parameterizations of the calving process can easily be integrated into numerical models to accurately capture observations, resulting in large uncertainties in projected sea level rise. Recent efforts have focused on estimating crevasse depths assuming tensile failure occurs when crevasses fully penetrate the glacier thickness. However, these approaches often ignore the role of advecting crevasses on calculations of crevasse depth. Here, we examine a more general crevasse depth calving model that includes crevasse advection. We apply this model to idealized prograde and retrograde bed geometries as well as a prograde geometry with a sill. Neglecting crevasse advection results in steady glacier advance and ice tongue formation for all ice temperatures, sliding law coefficients and constant slope bed geometries considered. In contrast, crevasse advection suppresses ice tongue formation and increases calving rates, leading to glacier retreat. Furthermore, crevasse advection allows a grounded calving front to stabilize on top of sills. These results suggest that crevasse advection can radically alter calving rates and hint that future parameterizations of fracture and failure need to more carefully consider the lifecycle of crevasses and the role this plays in the calving process.

We calibrate the calving parameterisation implemented in the Open Global Glacier Model via two methods (velocity constraint and surface mass balance (SMB) constraint) and assess the impact of accounting for frontal ablation on the ice volume estimate of Greenland tidewater peripheral glaciers (PGs). We estimate an average regional frontal ablation flux of 7.38±3.45 Gta−1 after calibrating the model with two different satellite velocity products, and of 0.69±0.49 Gta−1 if the model is constrained using frontal ablation fluxes derived from independent modelled SMB averaged over an equilibrium reference period (1961–90). This second method makes the assumption that most PGs during that time have an equilibrium between mass gain via SMB and mass loss via frontal ablation. This assumption serves as a basis to assess the order of magnitude of dynamic mass loss of glaciers when compared to the SMB imbalance. The differences between results from both methods indicate how strong the dynamic imbalance might have been for PGs during that reference period. Including frontal ablation increases the estimated regional ice volume of PGs, from 14.47 to 14.64±0.12 mm sea level equivalent when using the SMB method and to 15.84±0.32 mm sea level equivalent when using the velocity method.

Hydrofracturing can enhance the depth to which crevasses propagate and, in some cases, allow full depth crevasse penetration and iceberg detachment. However, many existing crevasse models either do not fully account for the stress field driving the hydrofracture process and/or treat glacier ice as elastic, neglecting the non-linear viscous rheology. Here, we present a non-local continuum poro-damage mechanics (CPDM) model for hydrofracturing and implement it within a full Stokes finite element formulation. We use the CPDM model to simulate the propagation of water-filled crevasses in idealized grounded glaciers, and compare crevasse depths predicted by this model with those from linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) and zero stress models. We find that the CPDM model is in good agreement with the LEFM model for isolated crevasses and with the zero stress model for closely-spaced crevasses, until the glacier approaches buoyancy. When the glacier approaches buoyancy, we find that the CPDM model does not allow the propagation of water-filled crevasses due to the much smaller size of the tensile stress region concentrated near the crevasse tip. Our study suggests that the combination of non-linear viscous and damage processes in ice near the tip of a water-filled crevasse can alter calving outcomes.

Herein, we present results obtained from time-lapse imagery acquired by a digital single-lens reflex camera during 2014–18 used to monitor the Planpincieux Glacier on the Italian side of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc massif). We processed the images using image cross-correlation to measure the surface kinematics of the most active lobe of the glacier that presents a high velocity and frequent ice detachments. During the monitoring, we observed two or three periods of sharp acceleration per year that culminated with large break-offs followed by analogous decelerations. Overall, we registered more than 350 failures with a volume >100 m3, of which, 14 events had volumes larger than 10 000 m3. The study identified a monotonic positive relationship between the velocity and failure volume that may be used to estimate the volume of the collapses before an event. We identified the thresholds of velocity and acceleration that characterise the activation of the speed-up periods. The study allowed the characterisation of three different instability processes that lead to the break-off of ice chunks from the glacier terminus: (i) disaggregation, (ii) slab fracture and (iii) water tunnelling failure which can be differentiated based on the rheology, the volume involved and the trigger process.

The Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI) withdrawal in recent decades shows contrasting behaviours between adjacent basins. One of the basins with highest volumetric losses is located at northernmost SPI. We refer to Jorge Montt tidewater glacier (48° 30′S/73° 30′W, 445 km2 in 2018), which retreated 2.7 km between 2011 and 2018 and thinned at rates of up to 21 m a−1 over this period. Based on the retreat record, remote-sensing imagery, field data, a mass-balance model and a calving parameterisation, we attempted to differentiate climatic-induced changes (i.e. surface mass balance) and dynamic responses (i.e. calving fluxes). The surface mass balance reached −4.15 km3 w.e. a−1 between 2012 and 2017. When frontal ablation is included, the net mass balance is −17.79 km3 w.e. a−1. This represents a change of trend compared with modelling estimations of positive surface mass balance prior to 2010. This shift is attributed to higher ablation rates given that accumulation is known to have increased between 1980 and 2015. The available evidence, therefore, indicates that frontal ablation is the main factor, supported by observed rates at Jorge Montt as high as 3.81 km3 w.e. a−1 in 2015, with ice velocities peaking at 11 km a−1.

Submarine melting of tidewater glaciers is proposed as a trigger for their recent thinning, acceleration and retreat. We estimate spring submarine melt rates (SMRs) of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia in southwest Greenland, from 2012 to 2014, by examining changes in along-fjord freeboard and velocity of the seasonal floating ice tongue. Estimated SMRs vary spatially and temporally near the grounding line, with mean rates of 1.3 ± 0.6, 0.8 ± 0.3 and 1.0 ± 0.4 m d−1 across the tongue in 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. Higher melt rates correspond with locations of emerging subglacial plumes and terminus calving activity observed during the melt season using time-lapse camera imagery. Modelling of subglacial flow paths suggests a dynamic system capable of rapid re-routing of subglacial discharge both within and between melt seasons. Our results provide an empirically-derived link between the presence of subglacial discharge plumes and areas of high spring submarine melting and calving along glacier termini.