Prevention is an integral component of many management strategies for aquatic invasive species, yet this represents a formidable task when the landscapes to be managed include multiple invasive species, thousands of waterbodies, and limited resources to implement action. Species distributional modeling can facilitate prevention efforts by identifying locations that are most vulnerable to future invasion based on the likelihood of introduction and environmental suitability for establishment. We used a classification tree approach to predict the vulnerability of lakes in Washington State (United States) to three noxious invasive plants: Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum), Brazilian egeria (Egeria densa), and curlyleaf pondweed (Potamogeton crispus). Overall, the distribution models predicted that approximately one-fifth (54 out of 319 study lakes) of lakes were at risk of being invaded by at least one aquatic invasive plant, and many of these predicted vulnerable lakes currently support high native plant diversity and endemism. Highly vulnerable lakes are concentrated in western Washington in areas with the highest human population densities, and in eastern Washington along the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project and the Okanogan River Basin that boast hundreds of lakes subject to recreational use. Overall, invasion potential for the three species was highly predictable as a function of lake attributes describing human accessibility (e.g., public boat launch, urban land use) and physical–chemical conditions (e.g., lake area, elevation, productivity, total phosphorous). By identifying highly vulnerable lake ecosystems, our study offers a strategy for prioritizing on-the-ground management action and informing the most efficient allocation of resources to minimize future plant invasions in vast freshwater networks.

Total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) reserves support growth, formation of reproductive structures, and sprouting of plant tissues, and nitrogen (N) is essential for amino acid synthesis and photosynthetic enzyme production. Timing of weed management to periods when these critical resources are most limiting might improve efficacy. We examined seasonal changes in carbohydrate and nitrogen concentrations in Brazilian egeria (Egeria densa), a common submersed aquatic weed, from two locations in the United States. Plants were collected from a coastal Oregon reservoir and from California's Central Valley in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Starch comprised between 35 to 51% of the TNC in lower stems and root crowns. Seasonal changes in resource concentrations were not consistent between years within a population or for the same plant part between different populations. Lowest TNC concentrations were observed earlier in the growing season (March) in Disappointment Slough than in Big Creek (May to June). Conversely, highest concentrations were observed in October in Disappointment Sough and from August to March in Big Creek. Nitrogen concentrations were highest in stem tips in both populations, with more distinct seasonal changes in the California population. These data suggest western populations of E. densa might exhibit less-discernible low points in root crown and lower stem energy storage for targeting management activities to vulnerable phenological stages. Brazilian egeria has high phenological plasticity despite its low genetic diversity and lack of specialized reproductive and perennating structures, which allows the plant to invade and dominate submersed plant communities in areas with mild winters.