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1 results

  • Predicting the benefit of screening for disease

  • Neil Dubin
  • Journal:
    Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 18 / Issue 2 / June 1981
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 July 2016, pp. 348-360
    Print publication:
    June 1981

  • To evaluate the benefits and risks associated with screening for disease, a model is developed to characterize the changes in incidence and survival distributions effected by a screening program. Screening is presumed to increase survival by resulting in diagnosis of disease at earlier stages. All disease states in the model are observable, thus facilitating application to empirical data. An example of such an application using data from a breast cancer detection project is given for the case of one screening for two-stage disease having Weibull-distributed diagnosis times.