Affective forecasting with respect to two environmental risks (ozone depletion, air pollution) was investigated by studying tourists who travelled to either Australia or Bangkok and were thus confronted with one of these risks. We measured anticipated outcome and anticipated emotions before the journey, actually experienced outcome and actually experienced emotions during the journey, and anticipated outcome and emotions concerning a future encounter with the same risk after the journey. Results indicate that tourists underestimate (air pollution) or correctly predict (ozone depletion) both the seriousness of the outcome and their emotional reactions. The relationship between actual outcome and actual emotions is stronger than that between anticipated outcome and anticipated emotions. Furthermore, tourists learn from their travel experience and adjust their anticipations concerning future encounters with the environmental risk. Findings suggest that the domain of environmental risks differs from personal outcomes with respect to the process of affective forecasting.

We tested how anticipated emotions interact with personal experience in risk behavior to improve predictions from TPB on behavioral intention (BI) and behavioral expectation (BE) for sex without condom (Study 1) and excessive drinking (Study 2). In the moderate-high experience group, anticipated emotional profiles (AEPs) improve TPB prediction from 28% to 45% in the case of BI and from 19% to 40% in that of BE in relation to sexual risk behavior (Study 1), and from 23% to 36% in the case of BI and from 17% to 31% in that of BE in relation to binge drinking (Study 2). However, in the low-experience group (Study 2) AEPs improve TPB predictions for BI (12% to 34%) but not for BE, showing that in less experienced people BI and BE are not equivalent: anticipated emotions have different relevance in their prediction. These results were replicated using a general negative anticipated emotion index (averaging emotional categories).