The objective of this research is to predict the delays in the departure of scheduled commercial flights through a methodology that uses predictive tools based on machine learning/deep learning (ML/DL), with supervised training in regression, based on the available flight datasets. Since the novel contribution of this work is, first, to make the comparison of the predictions in terms of means and statistical variance of the different ML/DL models implemented and, second, to determine the coefficients of the importance of the features or flight attributes, using ML methods known as permutation importance, it is possible to rank the importance of flight attributes by their influence in determining the delay time and reduce the problem of selecting the most important flight attributes. From the results obtained, it is worth mentioning that the model that presents the best performance is the ensemble or combinatorial method of random forest regressor models, with an acceptable prediction range (measured with the root-mean-square-error).

Climate change is increasing global-mean tropospheric temperatures, but the localised trends are uneven, including cooling the lower stratosphere and lifting the tropopause. The wind speeds are also being modified, both at the surface and aloft. A further effect, additional to wind and temperature alone, is of increasing fluctuations and severity of extreme weather. These are impacting air transport, and this will continue. The effects are known to include increased take-off distances where excess runway lengths exist and reduced payloads where they do not, increased en-route flight times, increased frequency and severity of encounters with clear air turbulence in some regions, changed patterns of wildlife — particularly bird — activity in some regions (potentially also for other anthropogenic reasons) are shifting locations of flight safety hazards, and increased burdens upon airport and associated infrastructure. There is increasing understanding and acknowledgment by companies and authorities of these effects and the importance of mitigating them, although this is not universal and there are as yet no universally understood best practices for air transport climate change mitigation.

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Circular Cir 337 is the first step towards ICAO establishing an Aeroplane CO2 Emissions Standard to form part of Annex 16, Volume III to the Chicago Convention. It describes itself as ‘a work in progress’. This paper reviews Cir 337 against the background of flight physics, the published literature on aircraft fuel burn and CO2 emissions and the current practices of the aircraft and engine manufacturers and the airline operators. We have taken, as our starting point, the aim of ICAO to reduce the fuel used per revenue tonne-kilometre performed and argue that the Breguet range equation, which captures all the relevant flight physics, should be the basis of the metric system underpinning the standard. Our overall conclusion is that Cir 337 provides an excellent basis for the initial regulation of aviation's CO2 emissions and, further in the future, for developing measures to increase the fuel efficiency of the operational side of civil aviation. Our main criticism of the circular in its current form is that it does not address the ICAO goal of reducing fuel used per revenue tonne-kilometre performed and makes no reference to payload. This defect could be eliminated simply by omission of the exponent 0.24 of the Reference Geometric Factor (RGF) in the formula for the metric given in Chapter 2 (paragraph 2.2) of the circular. Retaining the RGF to the power unity in the metric and multiplying it by an appropriate value of the effective floor loading would convert it to what the 37th Assembly of ICAO called for – a statement of fuel used per revenue tonne-kilometre performed. Finally, correlating the amended metric against design range, as determined from the measured specific air range and the key certificated masses, provides a sound scientific basis for an initial regulation to cap passenger aircraft emissions.

This paper is intended as a general introduction to the requirements for future passenger aircraft design. The needs of the 21st century are addressed to meet the important requirements of the customer airlines as well as those of the general public. In particular, the impact on two traditional major requirements are reviewed, the Design Mission and the operating costs. The effect of aircraft on the environment and the increases in the cost of fuel will have a substantial effect on the way future aircraft are optimised. These demands are summarised before moving on to the basic equations affecting how the aircraft design must respond. Very similar targets driving research work have been set in both Europe and the United States, and some of the new technologies that we can expect to be incorporated are outlined. Finally, a glimpse is given of the possible future aircraft configurations we may see in the skies in response to the new demands.

On 12 October 2002, two bombs exploded on the island of Bali in Indonesia, destroying two bars in the tourist district of the holiday resort Kuta Beach. The explosions killed 202 people from 21 different countries, and >300 people were injured. A team of observers conducted structured and unstructured interviews, and lessons learned from the experience were identified. This report summarizes various elements of the response including: (1) prehospital care; (2) coordination; (3) hospital response; and (4) Australia's efforts in air evacuation.