Corporate bond returns exhibit predictability in a manner consistent with efficient pricing. Many equity characteristics, such as accruals, standardized unexpected earnings, and idiosyncratic volatility, do not impact bond returns. Profitability and asset growth are negatively related to corporate bond returns. Because firms that are profitable or have high asset growth (and hence more collateral) should be less risky, with lower required returns, the evidence accords with the risk–reward paradigm. Past equity returns are positively related to bond returns, indicating that equities lead bonds. Cross-sectional bond return predictors generally do not provide materially high Sharpe ratios after accounting for trading costs.

I examine acquisitions of private firms by public acquirers to better understand the effects of financial constraints on the division of economic gains in takeovers. Empirical tests exploit interstate bank branching deregulation, which relaxes financial constraints on private firms and can strengthen their bargaining position in an acquisition. Using a proxy for the degree to which targets depend on acquirers for financing, I find that private targets depend less on acquirers as a result of interstate bank branching deregulation. Relaxing financial constraints on private targets leads to an increase in target valuation multiples and a decrease in acquirer wealth gains.

Using unique transactions data for individual high-frequency trading (HFT) firms in the U.K. equity market, we examine the extent to which the trading activity of individual HFT firms is correlated with each other and the impact on price efficiency. We find that HFT order flow, net positions, and total volume exhibit significantly higher commonality than those of a comparison group of investment banks. However, intraday HFT order flow commonality is associated with a permanent price impact, suggesting that commonality in HFT activity is information based and so does not generally contribute to undue price pressure and price dislocations.

Using a database of daily institutional trades, we document that a majority of short-term institutional trades lose money. In aggregate, over 23% of round-trip trades are held for less than 3 months, and the returns on these trades average -3.91% (nonannualized). These losses are pervasive across all types of stocks, with the lowest returns occurring in small stocks, value stocks, and low-momentum stocks. Short-term trades lose more in more volatile markets. Across funds, the worst short-term returns accrue to funds that do the most trading, and there is no evidence of persistent skill or disposition effect in short-term institutional trades.

We study the impact of the enforcement of financial regulation by the United Kingdom’s regulatory authorities on the market price of penalized firms. Existing studies rely on analyses of multiple events that may distort the measurement of reputational losses. In the United Kingdom, the entire enforcement process involves only one public announcement and is accompanied by complete information on legal penalties. We find that reputational losses are nearly nine times the size of fines and are associated with misconduct harming customers or investors but not third parties.

We examine the effect of foreign institutional investors on firm innovation. Using firm-level data across 26 non-U.S. economies between 2000 and 2010, we show that foreign institutional ownership has a positive, causal effect on firm innovation. We further explore three possible underlying mechanisms through which foreign institutions affect firm innovation: Foreign institutions act as active monitors, provide insurance for firm managers against innovation failures, and promote knowledge spillovers from high-innovation economies. Our article sheds new light on the real effects of foreign institutions on firm innovation.

Analysts’ functions are divided into discovery and interpretation roles, but distinguishing between the two is nontrivial. We conjecture that analysts’ interpretation skill can be gauged by their forecast revisions following material unanticipated news, in particular, following nonearnings 8-K reports, which arrive at the market unexpectedly. We establish that unanticipated 8-Ks are informative for analysts and find that analysts who are more likely to revise their forecasts following unanticipated 8-Ks provide more timely and accurate forecasts. We document a positive association between analysts’ tendency to react to unanticipated 8-Ks and market reaction to their recommendation changes, suggesting investors prefer these analysts’ opinions.

This research examines the relations between tournament-based incentives and corporate cash holdings and the value of cash. We find robust evidence that tournament-based incentives are positively related to cash holdings and the value of cash. Moreover, the effect of tournament-based incentives on the value of cash is stronger for financially constrained firms. Our evidence indicates that as tournament-based incentives motivate riskier corporate policy choices that lead to not only larger expected shareholder value but also greater cash-flow uncertainty, firms increase cash holdings to cushion potential liquidity shortfalls that may cause underinvestment.

We model conditional market beta and alpha as flexible functions of state variables identified via a formal variable-selection procedure. In the post-1963 sample, the beta of the value premium comoves strongly with unemployment, inflation, and the price–earnings ratio in a countercyclical manner. We also uncover a novel nonlinear dependence of alpha on business conditions: It falls sharply and even becomes negative during severe economic downturns but is positive and flat otherwise. The conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) performs better than the unconditional CAPM, but this does not fully explain the value premium. Our findings are consistent with a conditional CAPM with rare disasters.

This paper investigates investor disagreement and clientele effects in performance evaluation by developing a measure that considers the best potential clienteles of mutual funds. In an incomplete market under law-of-one-price (LOP) and no-good-deal conditions, we obtain an upper bound on admissible performance measures that identifies the most favorable alpha. Empirically, we find that a reasonable investor disagreement leads to generally positive performance for the best clienteles. Performance disagreement by investors can be significant enough to change the average evaluation of mutual funds from negative to positive, depending on the clienteles.

We find that stock liquidity increases stock price crash risk. To identify the causal effect, we use the decimalization of stock trading as an exogenous shock to liquidity. This effect is increasing in a firm’s ownership by transient investors and nonblockholders. Liquid firms have a higher likelihood of future bad earnings news releases, which are accompanied by greater selling by transient investors, but not blockholders. Our results suggest that liquidity induces managers to withhold bad news, fearing that its disclosure will lead to selling by transient investors. Eventually, accumulated bad news is released all at once, causing a crash.

We compare the stock return forecasting performance of alternative payout yields. The net payout yield produces more accurate forecasts relative to alternatives, including the traditional dividend yield. This remains true even after excluding several years during the Great Depression when issuance was unusually high. The measure of cash flow used to form the yield matters economically. Long-term investors’ hedging demand for stock is considerably reduced when net payout, rather than dividends, serves as the cash-flow measure. An agent relying on an incorrect payout measure is willing to pay an economically significant “management fee” to switch to the optimal policy.

In this article, I study the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models is evaluated both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market.

We use credit card data to estimate the impact of increasing minimum payments on delinquency, payments, spending, and write-offs. Our identification strategy exploits an unusual institutional feature: Borrowers can use their account to make purchases with both revolving loans (on which minimum payments increased) and term loans (on which there was no change). Payment increases by delinquent borrowers are insufficient to match increasing minimums, resulting in lower cure rates and an increase in write-offs. Affected borrowers migrate away from these accounts by decreasing charges and increasing payments, consequently lowering the interest earned by the bank.

We study the role of domestic and global factors in the payoffs of portfolios mimicking carry, dollar-carry, and momentum strategies. Using factors summarizing large data sets of macroeconomic and financial variables, we find that global equity-market factors are predictive for carry-trade returns, whereas U.S. inflation and consumption variables drive dollar-carry-trade payoffs, momentum returns are predominantly driven by U.S. inflation factors, and global factors capture the countercyclical nature of currency premia. We also find predictability in the exchange-rate component of each strategy and demonstrate strong economic value for risk-averse investors with mean-variance preferences, regardless of base currency.

On the day that dividends are paid, we find a significant positive mean abnormal return that is completely reversed over the following days. This dividend pay date effect has strengthened since the 1970s and is consistent with the temporary price pressure hypothesis. The pay date effect is concentrated among stocks with dividend reinvestment plans (DRIPs) and is larger for stocks with a higher dividend yield, greater DRIP participation, and greater limits to arbitrage. Over time, profits from a trading strategy that exploits this behavior are positively related to the dividend yield and spread and negatively associated with aggregate liquidity.