Research has shown that patients with somatoform disorders (SFD) have difficulty using medical reassurance (i.e. normal results from diagnostic testing) to revise concerns about being seriously ill. In this brief report, we investigated whether deficits in adequately interpreting the likelihood of a medical disease may contribute to this difficulty, and whether patients’ concerns are altered by different likelihood framings.

Patients with SFD (N = 60), patients with major depression (N = 32), and healthy volunteers (N = 37) were presented with varying likelihoods for the presence of a serious medical disease and were asked how concerned they are about it. The likelihood itself was varied, as was the format in which it was presented (i.e. negative framing focusing on the presence of a disease v. positive framing emphasizing its absence; use of natural frequencies v. percentages).

Patients with SFD reported significantly more concern than depressed patients and healthy people in response to low likelihoods (i.e. 1: 100 000 to 1:10), while the groups were similarly concerned for likelihoods ⩾1:5. Across samples, the same mathematical likelihood caused significantly different levels of concern depending on how it was framed, with the lowest degree of concern for a positive framing approach and higher concern for natural frequencies (e.g. 1:100) than for percentages (e.g. 1%).

The results suggest a specific deficit of patients with SFD in interpreting low likelihoods for the presence of a medical disease. Positive framing approaches and the use of percentages rather than natural frequencies can lower the degree of concern.

Inaccurate self-assessment of performance is common among people with serious mental illness, and it is associated with poor functional outcomes independent from ability. However, the temporal interdependencies between judgments of performance, confidence in accuracy, and feedback about performance are not well understood.

We evaluated two tasks: the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) and the Penn Emotion recognition task (ER40). These tasks were modified to include item-by-item confidence and accuracy judgments, along with feedback on accuracy. We evaluated these tasks as time series and applied network modeling to understand the temporal relationships between momentary confidence, accuracy judgments, and feedback. The sample constituted participants with schizophrenia (SZ; N = 144), bipolar disorder (BD; N = 140), and healthy controls (HC; N = 39).

Network models for both WCST and ER40 revealed denser and lagged connections between confidence and accuracy judgments in SZ and, to a lesser extent in BD, that were not evidenced in HC. However, associations between feedback regarding accuracy with subsequent accuracy judgments and confidence were weaker in SZ and BD. In each of these comparisons, the BD group was intermediate between HC and SZ. In analyses of the WCST, wherein incorporating feedback is crucial for success, higher confidence predicted worse subsequent performance in SZ but not in HC or BD.

While network models are exploratory, the results suggest some potential mechanisms by which challenges in self-assessment may impede performance, perhaps through hyperfocus on self-generated judgments at the expense of incorporation of feedback.

This paper examined whether distinct life-course trajectories of psychological distress from adolescence to midlife were associated with poorer mental health outcomes during the pandemic.

We present a secondary analysis of two nationally representative British birth cohorts, the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) and 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70). We used latent variable mixture models to identify pre-pandemic longitudinal trajectories of psychological distress and a modified Poisson model with robust standard errors to estimate associations with psychological distress, life satisfaction and loneliness at different points during the pandemic.

Our analysis identified five distinct pre-pandemic trajectories of psychological distress in both cohorts. All trajectories with prior symptoms of psychological distress irrespective of age of onset, severity and chronicity were associated with a greater relative risk of poorer mental health outcomes during the pandemic and the probability of poorer mental health associated with psychological distress trajectories remained fairly constant. The relationship was not fully attenuated when most recent pre-pandemic psychological distress and other midlife factors were controlled for.

Whilst life-course trajectories with any prior symptoms of psychological distress put individuals at greater risk of poor mental health outcomes during the pandemic, those with chronic and more recent occurrences were at highest risk. In addition, prior poor mental health during the adult life-course may mean individuals are less resilient to shocks, such as pandemics. Our findings show the importance of considering heterogeneous mental health trajectories across the life-course in the general population in addition to population average trends.

We previously reported that bipolar disorder (BD) patients with clinically significant weight gain (CSWG; ⩾7% of baseline weight) in the 12 months after their first manic episode experienced greater limbic brain volume loss than patients without CSWG. It is unknown whether CSWG is also a risk factor for progressive neurochemical abnormalities.

We investigated whether 12-month CSWG predicted greater 12-month decreases in hippocampal N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and greater increases in glutamate + glutamine (Glx) following a first manic episode. In BD patients (n = 58) and healthy comparator subjects (HS; n = 34), we measured baseline and 12-month hippocampal NAA and Glx using bilateral 3-Tesla single-voxel proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. We used general linear models for repeated measures to investigate whether CSWG predicted neurochemical changes.

Thirty-three percent of patients and 18% of HS experienced CSWG. After correcting for multiple comparisons, CSWG in patients predicted a greater decrease in left hippocampal NAA (effect size = −0.52, p = 0.005). CSWG also predicted a greater decrease in left hippocampal NAA in HS with a similar effect size (−0.53). A model including patients and HS found an effect of CSWG on Δleft NAA (p = 0.007), but no diagnosis effect and no diagnosis × CSWG interaction, confirming that CSWG had similar effects in patients and HS.

CSWG is a risk factor for decreasing hippocampal NAA in BD patients and HS. These results suggest that the well-known finding of reduced NAA in BD may result from higher body mass index in patients rather than BD diagnosis.