Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jn8rn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T17:32:27.187Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

War and Momentum: The 2008 Presidential Nominations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 June 2011

Helmut Norpoth  and
David F. Perkins
Helmut Norpoth
Affiliation:
Stony Brook University
David F. Perkins
Affiliation:
Stony Brook University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In the 2008 presidential nomination campaigns, both Obama and McCain staked out clear positions on the Iraq war. Exit polls conducted in primary and caucus contests show that the war in Iraq was indeed the key issue of support for the winning contenders. However, it was not agreement with the candidates' positions that drove primary voters into the arms of Obama and McCain; rather, it was concern with the Iraq war. Primary voters treated the war as a valence issue, not as a position issue. Each candidate also won an early contest (the Iowa caucuses for Obama and the New Hampshire primary for McCain) in which concern over the Iraq war was especially strong. Those victories sparked a momentum for both candidates in subsequent contests. As a result, both Obama and McCain owed their respective nominations for president to the combination of war and momentum.

Type
Features
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 44 , Issue 3 , July 2011 , pp. 536 - 543
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 1989. “Viability, Electability, and Candidate Choice in a Presidential Primary Election: A Test of Competing Models.” Journal of Politics 51: 977–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramson, Paul R., Aldrich, John H., Rickershauser, Jill, and Rohde, David W.. 2007. “Fear in the Voting Booth.” Political Behavior 29: 197–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramson, Paul R., Aldrich, John H., and Rohde, David W.. 2006. Change and Continuity in the 2004 Elections. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Adkins, Randall E., and Dowdle, Andrew J.. 2000. “Break out the Mint Julips? Is New Hampshire the ‘Primary’ Culprit Limiting Presidential Nomination Forecasts?” American Politics Quarterly 28: 251–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H., and Alvarez, R. Michael. 1994. “Issues and the Presidential Primary Voter.” Political Behavior 3: 289–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H., Sullivan, John L., and Borgida, Eugene. 1989. “Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates ‘Waltz Before a Blind Audience?’” American Political Science Review 83: 123–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 1988. Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brady, Henry E., and Johnston, Richard. 1987. “What's the Primary Message: Horse Race or Issue Journalism?” In Media and Momentum, ed. Orren, Gary R. and Polsby, Nelson W., 127–86. Chatham: Chatham House.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
CBS News. 2008. “Poll of Likely Democratic and Republican Primary Voters, Conducted January 9–12, 2008” [computer file]. Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., Rusk, Jerrold G., and Wolfe, Arthur C.. 1969. “Continuity and Change in American Politics: Parties and Issues in the 1968 Election.” American Political Science Review 63: 1,083–1,105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International. 2008. “Exit Polls for 2008 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses.” Election Center 2008, CNNPolitics.com. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/.Google Scholar
Gallup. 1968. “Gallup Poll, February 22–27, 1968” [computer file]. Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.Google Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Reifler, Jason, and Feaver, Peter D.. 2007. “Iraq the Vote: Retrospective and Prospective Foreign Policy Judgments on Candidate Choice and Casualty Tolerance.” Political Behavior 29: 151–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Healy, Patrick. 2007. “Clinton Gives War Critics New Answer on '02 Vote.” New York Times, February 18. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/18/us/politics/18clinton.html.Google Scholar
Holsti, Ole R. 2004. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. Rev. ed. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Jacoby, William G., Norpoth, Helmut, and Weisberg, Herbert F.. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayer, William G. 2003. “Forecasting Presidential Nominations.” PS: Political Science and Politics 36: 153–57.Google Scholar
Meet the Press. 2006. “Transcript for Aug. 20: John McCain, Barry McCaffrey, Vali Nasr, John Harwood.” Meet the Press, MSNBC, August 20. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14390980/ns/meet_the_press/.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, and Sidman, Andrew H.. 2007. “Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004.” Political Behavior 29: 175–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara. 2006. “The Attrition Game: Initial Resources, Initial Contests and the Exit of Candidates during the U.S. Presidential Primary Season.” British Journal of Political Science 36: 487–507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Obama, Barack. 2007. “Senator Obama's Announcement.” New York Times, February 10. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/10/us/politics/11obama-text.html.Google Scholar
Rickershauser, Jill, and Aldrich, John H.. 2007. “It's the Electability, Stupid—Maybe Not? Electability, Substance, and Strategic Voting in Presidential Primaries.” Electoral Studies 26: 371–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steger, Wayne P. 2007. “Who Wins Nominations and Why? An Updated Forecast of the Presidential Primary Vote.” Political Research Quarterly 60: 91–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steger, Waybe P., Dowdle, Andrew J., and Adkins, Randall E.. 2004. “The New Hampshire Effects in Presidential Nominations.” Political Research Quarterly 57: 375–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stokes, Donald E. 1966. “Spatial Models of Party Competition.” In Elections and the Political Order, ed. Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E., 161–79. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Stokes, Donald E., and DiIulio, John J. Jr. 1993. “The Setting: Valence Politics in Modern Elections.” In The Elections of 1992, ed. Nelson, Michael, 1–20. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Weisberg, Herbert F., and Christenson, Dino P.. 2007. “Changing Horses in Wartime? The 2004 Presidential Election.” Political Behavior 29: 279–304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodward, Bob. 2008. The War Within: A Secret White House History, 2006–2008. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar