An interpretation of log-concavity and log-convexity as aging notions is given in this paper. It imitates a stochastic ordering characterization of the NBU (new better than used) and the NWU (new worse than used) notions but stochastic ordering is now replaced by the likelihood ratio ordering. The new characterization of log-concavity and log-convexity sheds new light on these properties and enables one to obtain intuitively simple proofs of the log-convexity and log-concavity of some first passage times of interest in branching processes and in reliability theory.

We consider a closed queueing network with a fixed number of customers, where a single server moves cyclically between N stations, rending service in each station according to some given discipline (Gated, Exhaustive, or the Globally Gated regime). When service of a customer (message) ends in station j, it is routed to station k with probability Pjk. We derive explicit expressions for the probability generating function and the moments of the number of customers at the various queues at polling instants and calculate the mean cycle duration and throughput for each service discipline. We then obtain the first moments of the queues' length at an arbitrary point in time. A few examples are given to illustrate the analysis. Finally, we address the problem of optimal dynamic control of the order of stations to be served.

We consider the sojourn time V in the M/D/1 processor sharing (PS) queue and show that P(V > x) is of the form Ce−γx as x becomes large. The proof involves a geometric random sum representation of V and a connection with Yule processes, which also enables us to simplify Ott's [21] derivation of the Laplace transform of V. Numerical experiments show that the approximation P(V > x) ≈ Ce−γx is excellent even for moderate values of x.

We consider a polling system with a finite number of stations fed by compound Poisson arrival streams of customers asking for service. A server travels through the system. Upon arrival at a nonempty station i, say, with x > 0 waiting customers, the server tries to serve there a random number B of customers if the queue length has not reached a random level C < x before the server has completed the B services. The random variable B may also take the value ∞ so that the server has to provide service as long as the queue length has reached size C. The distribution Hi, x of the air (B, C) may depend on i and x while the service time distribution is allowed to depend on i. The station to be visited next is chosen among some neighbors according to a greedy policy. That is to say that the server always tries to walk to the fullest station in his well-defined neighborhood. Under appropriate independence assumptions two conditions are established that are sufficient for stability and sufficient for instability. Some examples will illustrate the relevance of our results.

The most probable equilibrium configuration in a circuit-switched network is determined, in the limit of very large scale, by a primal optimization problem whose dual determines the blocking probabilities. This approximation can be inadequate for moderate scale, and so the blocking probabilities are usually determined by the Erlang fixed-point principle. In this paper, it is shown that there is a “softened” form of the dual natural to the problem. This gives determinations of the blocking probabilities agreeing with those derived from the Erlang principle as far as terms of order (scale)-1. It is more attractive than the Erlang principle, however, in that it has a mathematical basis, provides an extremal principle by its nature, yields immediately the geometric distribution of the numbers of free circuits, and clearly agrees with the “hard” dual in the limit of large scale.

Considered are semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs) with finite state and action spaces. We study two criteria: the expected average reward per unit time subject to a sample path constraint on the average cost per unit time and the expected time-average variability. Under a certain condition, for communicating SMDPs, we construct (randomized) stationary policies that are ε-optimal for each criterion; the policy is optimal for the first criterion under the unichain assumption and the policy is optimal and pure for a specific variability function in the second criterion. For general multichain SMDPs, by using a state space decomposition approach, similar results are obtained.

The question of how long to run a discrete event simulation before data collection starts is an important issue when estimating steady-state performance measures such as average queue lengths. By using experiments based on numerical (nonsimulation) methods published elsewhere, we shed light on this question. Our experiments indicate that no initialization phase should be used when starting in state with a reasonable high equilibrium probability. Delaying data collection is only justified if the starting state is highly unlikely, and data collection should start as soon as a system enters a state with reasonably high probability.

It is well known that in the case of a Poisson process with constant intensity function the interarrival times are independent and identically distributed, each having exponential distribution. We study this problem when the intensity function is monotone. In particular, we show that in the case of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with decreasing (increasing) intensity the interarrival times are increasing (decreasing) in the hazard rate ordering sense and they are also jointly likelihood ratio ordered (cf. Shanthikumar and Yao, 1991, Bivariate characterization of some stochastic order relations, Advances in Applied Probability 23: 642–659). This result is stronger than the usual stochastic ordering between the successive interarrival times. Also in this case, the interarrival times are conditionally increasing in sequence and, as a consequence, they are associated. We also consider the problem of comparing two nonhomogeneous Poisson processes in terms of the ratio of their intensity functions and establish some results on the successive number of events from one process occurring between two consecutive occurrences from the second process.

In this article, we establish some results concerning the univariate and multivariate likelihood ratio order of generalized order statistics and the special case of m-generalized order statistics and their associated conditional variables. These results, in addition to being new, also generalizes some of the known results in the literature. Finally, some applications of all these results are indicated.

We consider the social welfare model of Naor [20] and revenue-maximization model of Chen and Frank [7], where a single class of delay-sensitive customers seek service from a server with an observable queue, under state dependent pricing. It is known that in this setting both revenue and social welfare can be maximized by a threshold policy, whereby customers are barred from entry once the queue length reaches a certain threshold. However, no explicit expression for this threshold has been found. This paper presents the first derivation of the optimal threshold in closed form, and a surprisingly simple formula for the (maximum) revenue under this optimal threshold. Utilizing properties of the Lambert W function, we also provide explicit scaling results of the optimal threshold as the customer valuation grows. Finally, we present a generalization of our results, allowing for settings with multiple servers.

Single-server queues in which the server takes vacations arise naturally as models for a wide range of computer, communication, and production systems. In almost all studies on vacation models, the vacation lengths are assumed to be independent of the arrival, service, workload, and queue length processes. In the present study, we allow the length of a vacation to depend on the length of the previous active period (viz. the period since the previous vacation). Under rather general assumptions regarding the offered work during active periods and vacations, we determine the steady-state workload distribution, both for single and multiple vacations. We conclude by discussing several special cases, including polling models, and relate our findings to results obtained earlier.

We consider a queuing system with a workload-dependent service rate. We specifically assume that the service rate is first increasing and then decreasing as a function of the amount of work. The latter qualitative behavior is quite common in practical situations, such as production systems. The admission of work into the system is controlled by a policy for accepting or rejecting jobs, depending on the state of the system. We seek an admission control policy that maximizes the long-run throughput. Under certain conditions, we show that a threshold policy is optimal, and we derive a criterion for determining the optimal threshold value.

We consider a series system with p components where the failure rate of each component depends on the residual number of defects present. Successive tasks are given to the system with each task completion time independent of each component failure time. Based on the outcomes over a fixed testing period, the asymptotic properties of the estimators of the component parameters, task completion parameters, and eventual system reliability are obtained.

Consider the problem of searching for a leprechaun that moves randomly between two sites. The movement is modelled with a two-state Markov chain. One of the sites is searched at each time t = 1,2,…, until the leprechaun is found. Associated with each search of site i is an overlook probability αi and a cost Ci Our aim is to determine the policy that will find the leprechaun with the minimal average cost. Let p denote the probability that the leprechaun is at site 1. Ross conjectured that an optimal policy can be defined in terms of a threshold probability P* such that site 1 is searched if and only if p ≥ P*. We show this conjecture to be correct (i) when α1 = α2 and C1 = C2, (ii) for general Ci when the overlook probabilities α, are small, and (iii) for general αi and Ci for a large range of transition laws for the movement. We also derive some properties of the optimal policy for the problem on n sites in the no-overlook case and for the case where each site has the same αi, and Ci.

In this paper, we present a new pricing model for vulnerable options, with time-varying variances for each asset described by Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity processes and correlated with the return of the asset. By connecting the underlying asset and the counterparty's assets through the market factor channel, the proposed model also captures stochastic correlation between the underlying asset return and the return of the counterparty's assets. The correlation depends on the levels of the variances of both assets and the market index as well. In the proposed framework, the closed-form solution for vulnerable options is derived and numerical results are presented to investigate the impact of counterparty default risk.

We study the concept of multivariate dispersion order, defined as the existence of an expansion function that maps a random vector to another one, for multivariate distributions with the same dependence structure. As a particular case, we can order the multivariate t-distribution family in dispersion sense. Finally, we use these results in the problem of detection and characterization of influential observations in regression analysis. This problem can often be used to compare two multivariate t-distributions.

It is widely accepted that medium-term generation planning can be advantageously modeled through market equilibrium representation. There exist several methods to define and solve this kind of equilibrium in a deterministic way. Medium-term planning is strongly affected by uncertainty in market and system conditions; thus, extensions of these models are commonly required. The main variables that should be considered as subject to uncertainty include hydro conditions, demand, generating units' failures, and fuel prices. This paper presents a model to represent a medium-term operation of the electrical market that introduces this uncertainty in the formulation in a natural and practical way. Utilities are explicitly considered to be maximizing their expected profits, and biddings are represented by means of a conjectural variation. Market equilibrium conditions are introduced by means of the optimality conditions of a problem, which has a structure that strongly resembles classical optimization of hydrothermal coordination. A tree-based representation to include stochastic variables and a model based on it are introduced. This approach to market representation provides three main advantages: Robust decisions are obtained; technical constraints are included in the problem in a natural way, additionally obtaining dual information; and large-size problems representing real systems in detail can be addressed.

Separation is one measure of distance from stationarity for Markov chains. Strong stationary times provide bounds on separation and so aid in the analysis of mixing rates. The precise connection between separation and strong stationary times was drawn by Aldous and Diaconis (1987) (Advances in Applied Mathematics 8: 69−97) for discrete time chains. We develop the corresponding foundational theory for continuous time chains; several new and interesting mathematical issues arise.

In most decision models dealing with unobservable stochastic congested environments, one looks for a (Nash) equilibrium behavior among customers. This is a strategy that, if adopted by all, then under the resulting steady-state conditions; the best response for an individual is to adopt this strategy too. The purpose of this article is to look for a simple decision problem but where the assumption of steady-state conditions is removed. Specifically, we consider an M/M/N/N loss model in which one pays for trying to get service but is rewarded only if one finds an available server. The initial conditions at time 0 are common knowledge and each customer possesses his arrival time as his private information. The equilibrium profile tells each arrival whether to try (randomization allowed) given his time of arrival. We show that all join up to some point of time. At this point, there is a quantum drop in the joining probability from one to some fraction. From then on, their joining probability continuously converges to the equilibrium joining probability under the model that assumes steady state.

In this paper, a new sufficient condition for comparing linear combinations of independent gamma random variables according to star ordering is given. This unifies some of the newly proved results on this problem. Equivalent characterizations between various stochastic orders are established by utilizing the new condition. The main results in this paper generalize and unify several results in the literature including those of Amiri, Khaledi, and Samaniego [2], Zhao [18], and Kochar and Xu [9].