Patterns of turnover in the mammalian fossil record have been interpreted as reflecting “pulses” of originations and extinctions hypothesized to be driven by climate change. However, criteria for determining what constitutes a meaningful pulse have been idiosyncratic, and investigations of turnover patterns in mammals have yielded mixed results.

This study presents simple simulations of fossil records in which origination and extinction probabilities for each lineage are held constant. Nonetheless, the total number of turnover events per time bin varies stochastically, producing statistical “noise.” Various simulation and analytical assumptions are examined to determine their impact on the type I error rate (i.e., how often “pulses” are detected in a purely stochastic process).

Results suggest that simple analytical parameters (length of time bins and turnover-pulse criterion) have predictable and straightforward effects on false-positive rates. Furthermore, “pulses” of turnover of a magnitude similar to that observed in the terrestrial mammalian fossil record may be quite common under realistic analytical conditions.

The null turnover model offers a practical way to evaluate the significance of observed turnover events in future empirical studies of the fossil record. In evaluating the significance of a “pulse” of fossil origination or extinction events, analytical parameters can be explored using this null model to determine the approximate type I error rate for a set of parameters. Because false-positive rates are shown to be quite high, functional trait-based approaches may offer more reliable indicators of the impact of climate change on turnover dynamics.

A length–frequency sample (n = 295) from a fossil population of the Ordovician trilobite Triarthrus eatoni Hall, 1838, assembled and analyzed by J. L. Cisne in 1973 is here reexamined using methods of length–frequency analysis commonly used in fishery science and marine biology. Theoretical considerations and the empirical data at hand suggest that the growth of T. eatoni was not “linear,” but asymptotic, as is the growth of most Recent marine invertebrates. The parameters of the von Bertalanffy growth function (L∞ = 41 mm, K = 0.29 yr−1) suggest that T. eatoni, which apparently lived in a challenging environment, grew somewhat more slowly than the extant marine isopod Ceratoserolis trilobitoides (Eights, 1833), used here as Recent analogue to T. eatoni. This trilobite probably lived up to 10 years, rather than the suggested 4 years, and its mortality rate was 15%–20% per year rather than 30%–40% per year. These represent the first estimates of trilobite absolute growth characteristics using methods known to accurately model growth in extant water-breathing ectotherms. These provide a baseline for trilobite growth that can be used to make inferences about growth in other species. The approach used here may also be applied to other trilobites for which suitable length–frequency data exist.

Extant and extinct terebratulide brachiopod species have been defined primarily on the basis of morphology. What is the fidelity of morphological species to biological species? And how can we test this fidelity with fossils? Taxonomically and phylogenetically, the most informative internal feature in the brachiopod suborder Terebratellidina is the geometrically complex long-looped brachidium, which is highly fragile and only rarely preserved in the fossil record. Given this, it is essential to test other sources of morphological data, such as valve outline shape, when trying to recognize and identify species. We analyzed valve outlines and brachidia in the genus Laqueus to explore the utility of shell shape in discriminating extant and fossil species. Using geometric morphometric methods, we quantified valve outline variability using elliptical Fourier methods and tested whether long-looped brachidial morphology correlates with shell outline shape. We then built classification models based on machine learning algorithms using outlines as shape variables to predict fossil species’ identities. Our results demonstrate that valve outline shape is significantly correlated with long-looped brachidial shape and that even relatively simple outlines are sufficiently morphologically distinct to enable extant Laqueus species to be identified, validating current taxonomic assignments. These are encouraging results for the study and delimitation of fossil terebratulide species, and their recognition as biological species. In addition, machine learning algorithms can be successfully applied to help solve species recognition and delimitation problems in paleontology, especially when morphology can be characterized quantitatively and analyzed statistically.

Inferences on the development and morphology of extinct brachiopods must be informed by the ontogeny and shell ornamentation of extant brachiopods. Although the adult shells of extant brachiopods are well studied, detailed descriptions of the embryonic and juvenile shells of extant lingulides are lacking. Here, we describe in detail the shells of juveniles of Lingula anatina Lamarck, 1801 from Vietnam and the Republic of the Philippines. The following previously unknown properties of the lingulide shell are described: (1) a distinct border between the protegulum and the brephic shell; (2) drapes that develop on both the protegulum and brephic shell; and (3) the notched anterior margin of the brephic shell. The drapes and cogs on the brephic shell may be caused by the formation of setal follicles during the planktonic stage. Specimens of L. anatina from the Philippines have larger brephic shells than those from Vietnam, probably because the former have a longer planktonic stage. Based on comparisons of the first-formed shells of extant brachiopods with published data on fossil brachiopods, we suggest that the life cycle of extant lingulides, in which planktotrophic juveniles with a shell hatch from the egg envelope, is the most evolutionarily advanced brachiopod life cycle and appeared in the early Silurian. We suggest criteria for determining the type of life cycle based on the structure of the first-formed shell of brachiopods. Finally, we consider hypothetical scenarios of life cycles of fossil brachiopods, including true planktotrophic larvae in the Cambrian linguliforms.

Late Eocene foraminiferal extinction shows diverse patterns of selective morphologic and latitudinal extinction. Taxa with discoidal shape, calcareous tests, and narrow and low-latitudinal ranges are at significantly greater risk of extinction. Elevated extinction intensities in calcareous tests are mainly due to the presence of larger benthic foraminifera that evolved in late Paleocene and diversified through the lower to middle Eocene. Selectivity of late Eocene foraminiferal extinction indicates that this extinction event was not a globally uniform event. Although this result does not verify an extraterrestrial impact or any other proposed cause of extinction, it does constrain the causes of late Eocene extinction. Furthermore, the geography of late Eocene foraminiferal extinction, and previously studied Cenomanian/Turonian extinction, demonstrates that mass extinctions exhibit different patterns of selectivity.

For the past twenty years, Ralph Gordon Johnson contributed significantly in three areas of paleobiology: understanding the dynamics of benthic marine communities, exploring the mode of formation of fossil assemblages, and describing the remarkably preserved Mazon Creek fauna.

As of September 2019, the Florida Museum of Natural History (FLMNH) had a curated collection of 117,449 chondrichthyan specimens from Florida, spanning the Eocene through the Pleistocene. Herein, I evaluate the completeness of the chondrichthyan fossil record from Florida based on the FLMNH collection, while analyzing patterns in taxonomic and ecomorphological diversity. At least 70 chondrichthyan taxa were recognized, representing 10 orders, 26 families, and 42 genera; of which, 20 taxa represent first occurrences from Florida. A sample of 107,698 specimens was organized into 12 time bins to analyze taxonomic and ecomorphological diversity, with an expectation that diversity patterns would correspond with global climate events (e.g., the Eocene–Oligocene transition and the middle Miocene climatic optimum). However, diversity patterns were obscured by pervasive sampling bias, attributable to variable collection methods, research prioritizations, and regional lithologic controls. Sampling is particularly poor for smaller specimens and older geologic units (e.g., the Paleogene). Despite incomplete sampling of the Florida chondrichthyan fossil record, there was an apparent turnover along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains from a lamniform- to carcharhiniform-dominated chondrichthyan fauna that occurred during the Eocene. This turnover corresponded with the extinction of many lamniform taxa with grasping-dominated dentition types (e.g., Brachycarcharias, Jaekelotodus, and Macrorhizodus). Selachian taxa that survived the late Eocene extinctions were predominantly represented by cutting-dominant dentition types. As cutting aids in the dismemberment of prey, this may reflect a macroevolutionary trend toward active predation and scavenging on larger prey, such as marine mammals, teleost fish, and other sharks.

Antarctic Hoploparia exhibit morphologic changes upsection in a stratigraphic record considered to be long (approximately 15 m.y.) and free of major hiatuses. Five characters exhibit change upsection, and the overall morphologies of the geologically oldest and youngest lobsters are different. The observed patterns could be the result of either phyletic evolution or gradual invasion of one or more species into the range of the original species. The most parsimonious interpretation of the data argues against the invasion hypothesis but supports the phyletic evolution hypothesis.

Mark and Flessa (1977) have argued that the evolutionary equilibrium hypothesis requires that there should be significant correlation between generic origins and extinctions, and they presented data on Phanerozoic brachiopods and Cenozoic mammals. Their data are re-examined and the correlations are found not to support their version of the evolutionary equilibrium hypothesis. We argue that the equilibrium hypothesis may not be falsifiable using paleontological data.

Evolutionary rates and selection intensities in eight cladistically defined species-level evolutionary sequences of the Middle and Upper Ordovician bryozoan genus Peronopora were calculated for comparison with values published for fossil and living taxa. Calculations were restricted to statistically significant unidirectional segments of anagenetic series to minimize the mixing of different modes, directions, and rates of evolutionary change.

Rates and selection intensities ranged from 10−7 to 10−6 darwins and from 10−6 to 10−5 haldanes. Across characters, the weighted mean evolutionary rate equaled 5.86 × 10−7 darwins and the mean selection intensity was 6.44 × 10−7. Mean rates of 2.15 × 10−6, 4.31 × 10−6, and 8.61 × 10−6 haldanes, and corresponding mean selection intensities equaling 2.39 × 10−6, 4.78 × 10−6, and 9.56 × 10−6, were calculated for generation lengths of 0.5, 1, and 2 years, respectively.

The magnitudes of positive and negative evolutionary rates and selection intensities do not differ statistically, individual characters display no consistent pattern of positive or negative values, and no character complexes were detectable. A mosaic pattern of change occurs across characters in evolutionary sequences.

Eighty percent of analyzed evolutionary series were multispecies lineages. Both individual and mean values provide direct estimates of the rates of evolution within those lineages at the moment of speciation.

Rates of anagenetic evolution in Peronopora were low and similar to published rates for a variety of fossil protists, invertebrates, and vertebrates. However, earlier rate calculations did not isolate the effect of unidirectional anagenesis from that of stasis, random walks, trend reversals, or rate variations. Eight percent of characters in Peronopora produced anagenetic series that were statistically significant, a percentage similar to the 5% calculated in a study of 251 sequences of evolving traits in 53 fossil lineages (Hunt 2007). Stasis and mutation-drift are the most common patterns detectable in the fossil record, although anagenesis remains a potentially important force in shaping the course of both micro- and macroevolution.

Levinton notes that the number of individuals available to my study of patterns in the evolution of Homo erectus is low, especially when cranial base breadth is considered. If measurements of biauricular breadth are related to stratigraphic age of the fossils using linear regression, the slope obtained is small (−1.52). The confidence interval includes zero, and there is no evidence that a real trend is present. At the same time, the .95 interval is large (±26.81), so slopes differing by even a substantial margin cannot be distinguished. Levinton suggests that this negates a claim for stasis, and I agree that there are grounds for doubt. But by his reasoning, a case for stasis can never be established. While it is true that the occurrence of (very small) trends can never be denied, even if an analysis of many fossils shows a zero slope bracketed by narrow confidence limits, surely these “trends” must be dismissed as insignificant. Given such an outcome, a conclusion of no (directional) change would be quite justified.

Grass-dominated ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth's terrestrial surface, with tropical grasses accounting for ~20% of global net primary productivity. C3 (cool/temperate) and C4 (tropical and subtropical) grass distribution is driven primarily by temperature. In this work, we used phytolith assemblages collected from vegetation plots along an elevation and temperature gradient in the northern Andes (Colombia and Ecuador) to develop a paleothermometer for the region. To accomplish this, we created a transfer function based on the inverse relationship between mean annual temperature (MAT) and the phytolith-based climatic index (Ic), which is the proportion of C3 over C4 grass phytoliths (GSSCP). To evaluate how accurately the index reflects C4–C3 grass abundance in vegetation plots, we compared it with semiquantitative floristic estimates of C4–C3 grass abundance. To further evaluate the 1 − Ic index as a proxy for C4–C3 grass abundance, we compared it with corresponding δ13C values (an independent proxy for C4–C3 vegetation). Results indicate that (1) GSSCP assemblages correctly estimate C4–C3 grass abundance in vegetation plots; (2) the Ic index outperforms the δ13C record in estimating C4–C3 grass abundance, even in open-vegetation types; and (3) our Ic index–based model accurately predicts MAT. This new calibrated proxy will help improve paleotemperature reconstructions in the northern Andes since at least the emergence and spread of C4 grasses in the region during the late Miocene.

The Cambrian saw a dramatic increase in metazoan diversity and abundance. Between-assemblage diversity (beta diversity) soared in the first three Cambrian stages, suggesting a rapid increase in the geodisparity of marine animals during the Cambrian radiation. However, it remains unclear how these changes scale up to first-order biogeographic patterns. Here we outline time-traceable provinces for marine invertebrates across the Cambrian period using a compositional network based on species-level fossil occurrence data. Results confirm an increase in regional differences of faunal composition and a decrease in by-species geographic distribution during the first three stages. We also show that general biogeography tends to be reshaped after global extinction pulses. We suggest that the abrupt biogeographic differentiation during the Cambrian radiation was controlled by a combination of tectonics, paleoclimate, and dispersal capacity changes.

The Ordovician–Silurian (~485–419 Ma) was a time of considerable evolutionary upheaval, encompassing both great evolutionary diversification and one of the first major mass extinctions. The Ordovician diversification coincided with global climatic cooling and paleocontinental collision, the ecological impacts of which were mediated by region-specific processes including substrate changes, biotic invasions, and tectonic movements. From the Sandbian–Katian (~453 Ma) onward, an extensive carbonate shelf developed in the eastern Baltic paleobasin in response to a tectonic shift to tropical latitudes and an increase in the abundance of calcareous macroorganisms. We quantify the contributions of environmental differentiation and temporal turnover to regional diversity through the Ordovician and Silurian, using brachiopod occurrences from the more shallow-water facies belts of the eastern Baltic paleobasin, an epicontinental sea on the Baltica paleocontinent. The results are consistent with carbonate shelf development as a driver of Ordovician regional diversification, both by enhancing broadscale differentiation between shallow- and deep-marine environments and by generating heterogeneous carbonate environments that allowed increasing numbers of brachiopod genera to coexist. However, temporal turnover also contributed significantly to apparent regional diversity, particularly in the Middle–Late Ordovician.

Calcareous nannoplankton have been one of the dominant primary producers in the surface oceans since the late Triassic. The bolide impact at the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary ~66.0 Ma, led to the elimination of >90% of nannoplankton species: the largest extinction event in their evolutionary history. One of the few nannoplankton genera to survive the K/Pg mass extinction and even thrive in its aftermath was Braarudosphaera, which precipitates pentagonal calcite plates (pentaliths). The only Braarudosphaera species to span the K/Pg boundary (B. bigelowii) is extant and has formed geographically and temporally restricted “blooms” throughout geologic time. Four morphologically and genetically distinct cryptic species of B. bigelowii have been identified in the modern ocean. However, it is uncertain whether these cryptic species have disparate ecophysiological tolerances that have allowed them to adapt to varying environmental conditions. For the first time, we assess changes in the size and shape of Braarudosphaera pentaliths following the K/Pg mass extinction at three geographically and environmentally disparate sites that have early Paleocene Braarudosphaera blooms. Our results show that different Braarudosphaera morphotypes were dominant in the Gulf of Mexico compared with the Tethys Ocean, likely due to regional environmental differences. In addition, we provide evidence that the dominant Braarudosphaera morphotypes shifted in response to changes in upper water column stratification. This ability to rapidly adapt to unstable environments likely helped Braarudosphaera thrive in the aftermath of the K/Pg extinction and explains why this lineage has enjoyed such a long evolutionary history.