In this paper, we consider the effects of population aging on a pay-as-you-go financed defined contributions pension scheme. We show that when retirement decisions are endogenous, aging increases the retirement age and the steady-state level of capital. The effect on pension payouts is in general ambiguous, except for the solution of full retirement, when this effect is unambiguously negative.

Is there an economic justification for why technical change is by assumption labor-augmenting in dynamic macroeconomics? The literature on the endogenous choice of capital- and labor-augmenting technical change finds that technical change is purely labor-augmenting in steady state. The present paper shows that this finding is mainly an artifact of the underlying mathematical models. To make this point, Uzawa's steady-state growth theorem is generalized to a neoclassical economy that, besides consumption and capital accumulation, uses current output to create technical progress or to manufacture intermediates. The generalized steady-state growth theorem is shown to encompass four models of endogenous capital- and labor-augmenting technical change and the typical model of the induced innovations literature of the 1960s.

This paper examines the stability of sunspot equilibria in one-sector RBC models under infinite horizon learning. We present general conditions under which the reduced-form model can possess E-stable sunspot equilibria and apply these conditions to three prominent one-sector RBC models. We find that the rational expectations sunspot equilibria are generally unstable under learning.

We investigate the consequences of overleveraging and the potential for destabilizing effects arising from financial- and real-sector interactions. In a theoretical framework, we model overleveraging and demonstrate how a highly leveraged banking system can lead to unstable dynamics and downward spirals. Inspired by models developed by Brunnermeier, Sannikov and Stein, we empirically measure the deviation-from-optimal-leverage for a sample of large EU banks. This measure of overleveraging is used to condition the joint dynamics of credit flows and macroeconomic activity in a large-scale regime change model: a Threshold Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (T-MCS-GVAR). The regime-switching component of the model is meant to make the relationship between credit and real activity dependent on the extent to which the banking system is overleveraged. We find significant nonlinearities as a function of overleverage. The farther the observed leverage in the banking system from optimal leverage, the more detrimental is the effect of a deleveraging shock on credit supply and economic activity.

This paper develops a microfounded macroeconomic modeling framework to investigate the relationship between informality and the income distribution. We show that multiple equilibria may rise if credit markets are imperfect and that there is a nondivisible entry cost in the formal economy. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that in the steady state, low levels of inequality are negatively correlated with high informality; conversely, high inequality exacerbates informality. This finding supports the hypothesis of an optimal level of inequality that minimizes the informal economy relative to the impact of other levels of inequality. However, for ordinary income distributions, changes in the level of inequality have only a slight effect on the informality rate. We calibrate the model using data on the U.S. and Mexican economies to estimate the level of inequality that minimizes the informality rate. The self-employment rate emerges as the most relevant determinant of the informality rate.

In this paper, we examine the influence of monetary policy on the speed of convergence in a standard monetary growth model à la Sidrauski allowing for differences in the elasticity of substitution between factors of production. The respective changes in the rate of convergence and its sensitivities to the central model parameters are derived both analytically and numerically. By normalizing the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions both outside the steady state and within the steady state, it is possible to distinguish between an efficiency and a distribution effect of a change in the elasticity of substitution. We show that monetary policy is the more effective, the lower is the elasticity of substitution, and that the impact of monetary policy on the speed of convergence is mainly channeled via the efficiency effect.

In this paper, we assess the characteristics of the housing market and its main determinants. Using data for 20 industrial countries over the period 1970Q1–2012Q2 and a discrete-time Weibull duration model, we find that the likelihood of the end of a housing boom or a housing bust increases over time. Additionally, we show that the different phases of the housing market cycle are strongly dependent on the economic activity, but credit market conditions are particularly important in the case of housing booms. The empirical findings also indicate that although housing booms have similar lengths in European and non-European countries, housing busts are typically shorter in European countries. The use of a more flexible specification for the hazard function that is based on cubic splines suggests that it evolves in a nonlinear way. From a policy perspective, our study can be useful for predicting the timing and the length of housing boom–bust cycles. Moreover, it highlights the importance of monetary policy by influencing lending rates and affecting the likelihood of occurrence of housing booms.

This paper analyzes the effects of stronger intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in the South on innovation, imitation, the pattern of production, and wage inequality based on a North–South product-cycle model with foreign direct investment (FDI) and skills accumulation. This quality-ladder model features innovative R&D in the North and imitative R&D in the South. Two types of innovations are considered: innovation targeting all products and innovation targeting only imitated products. We find that for both types of innovations, strengthening IPR protection reduces the innovation rate and raises the imitation rate. There is also an increase in the proportion of Northern unskilled labor and a decrease in Northern wage inequality. As for the pattern of production, strengthening IPR protection may reduce the extent of FDI.

The energy transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources has important consequences for technological change and resource extraction. We examine these consequences by incorporating a nonrenewable resource and an alternative energy source in a market economy model of endogenous growth through expanding varieties. During the energy transition, technological progress is nonmonotonic over time: It declines initially, starts increasing when the economy approaches the regime shift, and jumps down once the resource stock is exhausted. A moment of peak-oil does no longer necessarily occur, and simultaneous use of the resource and the alternative energy source will take place if the return to innovation becomes too low. Subsidies to research and development (R&D) and to renewables production speed up the energy transition, whereas a tax on fossil fuels postpones the switch to renewable energy.

Little is known about the accuracy of expert outlooks, so heavily relied upon by industry participants and policy makers, regarding the future path of oil prices. Using the regular publications by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), we examine the accuracy of annual recursive oil price forecasts generated by the National Energy Modeling System model of the Agency for forecast horizons of up to 15 years. Our results reveal that the EIA model outperforms the benchmark random walk model around the two ends of the forecast horizon spectrum. Additionally, at the longer horizons, simple econometric forecasting models often produce similar, if not better accuracy than the EIA model. Time varying such specifications generally also exhibit stability in their forecast performance. Finally, although combining forecasts does not change the overall patterns, some additional accuracy gains are obtained at intermediate horizons, and in some cases, forecast performance stability is also achieved.

The seminal cobweb model by Brock and Hommes reveals that fixed-point dynamics may turn into increasingly complex dynamics, as firms switch more quickly between competing expectation rules. While policy makers may be able to manage such rational routes to randomness by imposing a proportional profit tax, the stability-ensuring tax rate may cause a very high tax burden for firms. Using a mix of analytical and numerical tools, we show that a rather small profit-dependent lump-sum tax may even be sufficient to take away the competitive edge of cheap destabilizing expectation rules, thereby contributing to market stability.

This paper finds strong evidence of a positive relationship between currency risk premia and real exchange rate swings, significant at the 1% if not 0.1% level, for three US$ exchange rate samples. The risk premia are measured using survey data on traders' exchange rate forecasts. This circumvents the need for an auxiliary hypothesis of rationality and enables more direct focus on risk behavior. The analysis is conducted using the I(2) cointegrated VAR, which allows for time-varying trends in the variables. Evidence of persistent changes is found for interest rates, prices, and nominal and real exchange rates. Interest rate shocks appear to drive the system, whereas expectations are correcting only in the longer run.

By developing a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with nominal rigidities and assuming a two-country currency union with sovereign risk, we show that there is not necessarily a trade-off between the prevention of default risk and stabilizing inflation. Under optimal monetary and fiscal policy, comprising a de facto inflation stabilization policy, the tax rate as an optimal fiscal policy tool plays an important role in stabilizing inflation, although not completely because of the distorted steady state. Changes in the tax rate to minimize welfare costs via stabilizing inflation then improve the fiscal surplus, and because of this and the incompletely stabilized inflation, the default rate does not increase as much.

This paper analyzes whether the Fed had the ability through its conventional monetary policy to affect key economic and financial variables, and, in particular, the term structure of interest rates, during the recent financial crisis. This departs from the empirical literature that focuses mainly on the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies during this episode, although these policies are appropriate only to the extent that the conventional policy was ineffective in the first place. Our identification strategy based on the conditional heteroskedasticity of the structural innovations allows us to specify a flexible structural vector auto-regressive process that relaxes the identifying assumptions commonly used in earlier studies. Comparing our results obtained from samples excluding and including the financial crisis, we find that the conventional monetary policy has lost its effectiveness shortly after the beginning of the financial turmoil. This result suggests that the Fed's use of unconventional policies was appropriate, at least, with the objective of changing the term structure of interest rates.

We examine the quantitative significance of financial frictions that reduce firms' access to credit in explaining asymmetric business cycles characterized by disproportionately severe downturns. Using rate spread data to calibrate the severity of these frictions, we successfully match several key features of U.S. data. Specifically, although output and consumption are relatively symmetric (with output being slightly more asymmetric), investment and hours worked display significant asymmetry over the business cycle. We also demonstrate that our financial frictions are capable of significantly amplifying adverse shocks during severe downturns. Although the data suggest that these frictions are only active occasionally, our results indicate that they are still a significant source of macroeconomic volatility over the business cycle.

Optimal growth theory as it stands today does not work. Using strictly concave utility functions systematically inflicts on the economy distortions that are either historically unobserved or unacceptable by society. Moreover, we show that the traditional approach is incompatible with competitive equilibrium: Any economy initially in such equilibrium will always veer away into unwanted trajectories if its investment is planned using a concave utility function. We then propose a rule for the optimal savings-investment rate based on competitive equilibrium that simultaneously generates three intertemporal optima for society. The rule always leads to reasonable time paths for all central economic variables, even under very different hypotheses about the future evolution of population and technical progress.

This paper studies the effect of different types of child subsidies on the economic allocation and the cross-sectional fertility pattern. I construct a rich but tractable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations of heterogeneous individuals, two sectors of production and a government. I derive analytically how fertility choices are affected by changes in household resources and child subsidies and show the numerical results of two policy experiments. A subsidy on childcare favors the birth rates of educated, high-wage individuals. Parents work more so that the subsidy program is partly financed by a rise in labor earnings. In contrast, a lump-sum child allowance stimulates fertility of uneducated, low-wage parents the most. This policy has a larger effect on the average birth rate, but as parents perform most of the care themselves it comes at the expense of a lower supply of labor and a greater tax burden.

We construct a growth model with status preference to explore the effects of patents on innovation and social welfare. We find a nonmonotonic effect of patent protection on innovation. Additionally, the growth-rate-maximizing degree of patent protection decreases when the strength of status preference is larger. The effect of patent protection on social welfare is ambiguous, depending on the strength of status preference. Moreover, wealth inequality widens as patent protection is reinforced. Finally, by using cross-section regression analysis, we document that a nonmonotonic relationship between patent protection and economic growth is statistically significant and that the growth-rate-maximizing degree of patent protection decreases with the strength of status preference.

We propose a novel explanation for the observed increase in the correlation of commodity prices over the past decade. In contrast to theories that rely on the increased influence of financial speculators, we examine the effect of interest rates on the volatility and correlation of commodity prices via a panel GARCH model. In theory, lower interest rates decrease the volatility of prices, as lower inventory costs promote the smoothing of transient shocks, and increase price correlation if common shocks are more persistent than idiosyncratic shocks. Empirically, we find that price volatility attributable to transitory shocks declines with interest rates, whereas particularly for metals prices, price correlation increases as interest rates decline.

In this paper, we use the weak separability criterion to check for the existence of six different monetary aggregates reported by the Center of Financial Stability (CFS). We implement an extended version of the semi-nonparametric tests introduced by Barnett and de Peretti on US monthly data from January 1967 to December 2012. The test, first, checks for the necessary existence conditions of an overall utility function and a monetary subutility function, and then tests for the separability of the latter. On different subsamples, our results suggest that only the DM1 aggregate meets the separability criterion. Implemented on macroeconomic data, we have tested a joint assumption about separability and the existence of a representative agent. Thus, the rejection of the null could also be due to the rejection of stringent Gorman's conditions. More advanced tests for weak separability are clearly required to confirm the results found in this paper.