We study the influence of wage differential on the emergence of endogenous fluctuations. In this way, we introduce a dual labor market, based on the Shapiro–Stiglitz efficiency wage theory in an overlapping generations model. We show that wage inequality is a source of endogenous fluctuations. Indeed, a sufficiently strong wage differential leads to the occurrence of cycles of period 2 and local indeterminacy. Moreover, in contrast to several existing contributions, these results depend neither on increasing returns to scale nor on the degree of capital–labor substitution.

Since the company declared bankruptcy in June 2009, shares of General Motors stock (now known as Motors Liquidation Company) have continued to trade at a high volume while maintaining a market capitalization near $300 million through most of 2010. Anecdotal evidence strongly suggests that both rational speculators and uninformed investors (often mistaking Motors Liquidation for the new, reorganized GM) have purchased the stock. We develop a theoretical asset-pricing model that includes both types of agents. We present two major results. First, the most frequent state is one where a small fraction of rational agents ensure that the share price behaves as if all agents are rational. A second state exists where all rational agents exit and the share price is inflated. Second, fitting the model to Motors Liquidation, we find evidence of irrational asset pricing for this firm. We find little evidence of similar behavior in the share prices of the thirty stocks that compose the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The events driven by the financial crisis have highlighted limits and drawbacks of current paradigms. Economists began to rethink the role and impacts of financial factors and standard policies. At the same time, a more general sentiment of revision has challenged several consolidated “dogmas.” Accordingly, this special issue of Macroeconomic Dynamics aims to refresh the debate on some important macroeconomic topics from new and fresh perspectives. A number of questions relating to the challenges faced by macroeconomic theory and policies are raised. The issue, first, discusses some topics that stemmed from the financial factors, such as overleveraging, forward guidance, bank regulation; it then explores other “waters” related to price-setting behavior, productivity, and growth.

This paper quantitatively examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of macroprudential policies in open economies. We develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where banks choose their funding sources (domestic vs. foreign deposits) and are subject to financial constraints. Our model predicts that banks reduce leverage in response to a macroprudential policy tightening, but increasingly rely on foreign funding. This endogenous shifts of funding composition significantly undermine the stabilizing effect and welfare gains of macroprudential policies. Our results also suggest macroprudential policies are less effective in financially more open economies, and optimal policy should take capital flows into consideration. Finally, we find empirical support for the model predictions in a group of developing and emerging economies.

In this paper, we examine the influence of monetary policy on the speed of convergence in a standard monetary growth model à la Sidrauski allowing for differences in the elasticity of substitution between factors of production. The respective changes in the rate of convergence and its sensitivities to the central model parameters are derived both analytically and numerically. By normalizing the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions both outside the steady state and within the steady state, it is possible to distinguish between an efficiency and a distribution effect of a change in the elasticity of substitution. We show that monetary policy is the more effective, the lower is the elasticity of substitution, and that the impact of monetary policy on the speed of convergence is mainly channeled via the efficiency effect.

Models of endogenous growth have not been able to account for the variety of empirically observed distributional properties of the returns to innovation, in part, because of the limitations necessarily imposed on competition to cope with increasing returns to scale. Exponential growth, fat tails, Pareto–Levy distributed upper tails, and upper value outliers, are associated with increasing returns to scale and innovation. At the same time, properties such as bifurcated research investment strategies, bimodal returns to innovation, and Laplace distributed firm growth rates are products of competition. We build an agent-based model of endogenous technical change in which heterogeneous investments in patented knowledge and increasing returns to scale emerge these distributional properties within a competitive market. The combination of heterogeneous agents, costly information, and patents allow for a competitive landscape to persist amidst increasing returns. The ability of model to foster a coexistence of competition and increasing returns underlies the observed distributional properties.

Traditionally identified monetary shocks in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model typically result in long-lasting effects on output and total factor productivity (TFP). In this paper, I argue that the typical monetary shock has been confounded with the news shock about future technology. I propose and implement a novel SVAR approach that effectively “cleans” the technology component from the traditional Cholesky monetary shock. With the new identification, I find that a monetary shock exerts smaller and less persistent effects on output and the level of measured TFP than a traditionally identified monetary shock. Finally, I show that the SVAR impulse responses can be replicated by augmenting the standard New Keynesian model with a time-varying inflation target and a non-Ricardian fiscal policy regime.

The effects of inflation are studied for a small open economy with a cash-in-advance constraint on consumption in which the representative agent has preferences with habit persistence. An increase in the inflation rate requires a fall in the steady state living standards. On impact, to maintain living standards, the representative agent reduces his savings and labor supply. Investment falls and the current account turns into a deficit. In support of this model, we provide evidence from eight high-inflation countries suggesting that after an increase in the inflation rate, output and investment fall, and the net foreign asset position deteriorates over time.

One of the most prominent and consistent findings of the recent empirical literature on fiscal policy is that investment expenditure is crowded out by public spending in the short run. In this contribution, we address this empirical fact using a dynamic general equilibrium model and show that the introduction of habit-forming behavior plays a major role in accommodating the observed negative relationship between investment and government expenditure. Our numerical experiments point out the role of consumption inertia in determining the reactions of the open economy: as habit persistence gets stronger, fiscal expansion crowds out real consumption by a smaller amount and investment by a larger one, while the current account enters into a greater deficit.

Motivated by the increased importance of trade between industrialized and less-developed countries, we build a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring inter-industry trade as well as intra-industry trade to analyze the business cycle dynamics of industrialized countries. We find that import-competing sectors are more sensitive to domestic productivity shocks than exporting sectors, due to their stronger reliance on domestic demand. This generates pressure to adjust relative prices and to reallocate factors of production. It also propagates the international spillover effects of productivity shocks leading to stronger business cycle comovement across countries, relative to a traditional business cycle model that does not feature inter-industry trade.

Recent empirical research has documented the clustered volatility and fat tails of return distribution in stock markets, yet returns are uncorrelated over time. Certain agent-based theoretical models attempt to explain the empirical features in terms of investors' order-splitting or dynamic switching strategies, both of which are frequently used by actual stock investors. However, little theoretical research has discriminated among the behavioral assumptions within a model and compared the impacts of the assumptions on the empirical features. Nor has the research simultaneously replicated the return features and empirical features on market microstructure, such as patterns of order choice. This study constructs an artificial limit order market in which investors split orders into small pieces or use fundamental and trend-following predictors interchangeably over time. We demonstrate that, on one hand, the market that features strategies with order splitting and dynamic predictor selection can independently replicate clustered volatility and fat tails with near-zero return autocorrelations. However, we also show that patterns of order choice do not match those found in certain previous empirical studies in both types of economies. Thus, we conclude that, in reality, the two strategies can work to generate the empirical return features but that investors may also use other strategies in actual stock markets. We also demonstrate that the impact of both strategies on the volatility persistence tends to be greater as the number of traders increases in the market; this finding implies that the order-splitting strategy and dynamic predictor selection are more crucial for the empirical phenomena pertaining to larger capital stocks.

We build a two-country model of endogenous growth to study the welfare effects of taxes on tradable primary inputs when countries engage in asymmetric trade. We obtain explicit links between persistent gaps in productivity growth and the incentives of resource-exporting (importing) countries to subsidize (tax) domestic resource use. The exporters' incentive to subsidize hinges on slower productivity growth and is disconnected from the importers' incentive to tax resource inflows—i.e., rent extraction. Moreover, faster productivity growth exacerbates the importers' incentive to tax, beyond the rent-extraction motive. In a strategic tax game, the only equilibrium is of Stackelberg type and features, for a wide range of parameter values, positive exporters' subsidies and positive importers' taxes at the same time.

The present article presents novel results on the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans growth model. It is shown that the shadow price of capital goes to infinity as the capital stock goes to zero even if all functions are bounded with finite derivatives and that imposing the Inada condition of infinite derivative of the per capita production function at zero stock is irrelevant. It is also shown that unless marginal utility at zero consumption is infinity, there will be a non-empty interval where the Keynes–Ramsey rule does not hold. The paper also shows that the stable saddle path in a phase diagram with the state variable and the shadow price has an unrecognized economic interpretation that enables us to illustrate the value function as the integral of the stable saddle path.

Futures-market exchanges guarantee the performance of all contracts to encourage active trading between anonymous partners. Traders buy from or sell to the clearinghouse. The exchanges rely primarily on a margin system — traders post a performance bond that they forfeit if they default — to manage their risk exposure. The market value of the performance guarantee is the amount a trader would have to pay to insure his performance if there were no exchange guarantee. An underpriced guarantee subsidizes high-risk traders and ultimately undermines the credibility of the exchange's commitment to perform. An adequate margin policy fairly prices the exchange performance guarantee within an (economically insignificant) varepsilon neighborhood. I show that the value of a call (put) option with a strike price equal to the futures price minus (plus) the margin is an upper bound to the market value of the exchange's performance guarantee. The probability that the futures price change exceeds the margin is the probability that the option expires “in the money.” I estimate the value of the option on the December S&P 500 futures contract during the market crash in October 1987 to illustrate the technique. For the first half of the month the value of the performance guarantee was fairly priced. On the day of the crash it was underpriced by as much as 10% of the value of the futures contract. Futures-market margin committees moved quickly; by the end of the month the value of the performance guarantee was fairly priced.

The rationality test is based on regressing the actual series of variable in period t on its forecast formed in period t − 1. The nonrejection of the rationality hypothesis requires expectations' unbiasedness and efficiency. We show that in a model with t − 1 dating, where expectations strongly and positively affect the economy, the rationality test suffers from low power. It provides a high probability of nonrejection of the rationality hypothesis against numerous alternatives for expectations formation. This result is attained because the realization of the economy is driven by the public's expectations, irrespective of how well they are formed, via the structural relationship between them. The parameters in this test are predetermined by the parameters of the structural model, supporting expectations' unbiasedness under reasonable assumptions. Thus, successfully passing the rationality test could be misleading in terms of interpretation of the quality of the expectations and could lead to questionable accuracy of many applications.

We build a two-country New-Keynesian DSGE model of a Currency Union to study the effects of fiscal policy coordination, by evaluating the stabilization properties and welfare implications of different fiscal policy scenarios. Our main findings are that a government spending rule which targets the net exports gap rather than the domestic output gap produces more stable dynamics and that consolidating government budget constraints across countries with symmetric tax rate movements provides greater stabilization. A key role is played by the trade elasticity which determines the impact of the terms of trade on net exports. In fact, when goods are complements, the stabilization properties of coordinating fiscal policies are no longer supported. These findings point out to possible policy prescriptions for the Euro Area: to coordinate fiscal policies by reducing international demand imbalances, either by stabilizing trade flows across countries or by creating some form of Fiscal Union or both.

Many economies have recently adopted the defined-contribution retirement financing system, but one disadvantage of this system is that retirees have to bear longevity risk. As a result, several economies have also introduced the public annuity plans. We analyze the similarities and differences between voluntary public annuity with ceiling (VPAc) plan and mandatory public annuity with flexibility (MPAf) plan that are empirically observed. Introducing either plan reduces the severity of adverse selection in public annuities, but further distorts the private annuity market. These two plans have systematically different effects on retirees’ utility levels: the good health group is adversely affected and the average health group benefits. On the other hand, the poor health group benefits from the VPAc plan but may be adversely affected under the MPAf plan.

This paper shows that the ability of the credible wage bargaining model to match the observed unemployment volatility hinges on an unrealistic assumption about disagreement payoffs to the firm. Relaxing this assumption can lead to the substantial wage flexibility. As a consequence, the model is unable to capture the observed unemployment volatility.

This paper argues that output can respond to public education spending in a delayed and persistent manner through human capital accumulation. We refer to this as a “time-release” response, reflecting that the output response grows as students exposed to increased expenditures sequentially enter the labor market. We first develop and calibrate a stochastic overlapping generations model to formalize the propagation of spending shocks over a long time horizon. We then empirically explore this time-release aspect of shocks to government education expenditures on output using US state-level data for the period 1963–2016 and a panel structural vector autoregression methodology. Consistent with the model, our empirical results show that the dynamic response of output to shocks to government education expenditures is positive, significant, and long-lasting.

This paper is concerned with the empirical relevance of indeterminacy and sunspots in explaining the business cycle. It argues that financial constraints provide a propagation mechanism able to generate business cycle facts observed in data in response to sunspot shocks. This point is demonstrated using an equilibrium business cycle model featuring heterogeneous households, endogenous labor supply and liquidity constraints. We first show that the model exhibits indeterminacy for roughly constant returns to scale. We then establish that our model accounts for stylized facts that neither the standard RBC model nor previous sunspots models have been able to capture. More specifically, the model driven purely by sunspots matches the procyclical movements in aggregate consumption, and the positively correlated forecastable changes of basic macroeconomic variables.