This article examines if professional forecasters form their expectations regarding the policy rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) consistent with the Taylor rule. In doing so, we assess micro-level data including individual forecasts for the ECB main refinancing operations rate as well as inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Euro Area. Our results indicate that professionals indeed form their expectations in line with the Taylor rule. However, this connection has diminished over time, especially after the policy rate hit the zero lower bound. In addition, we also find a relationship between forecasters’ disagreement regarding the policy rate of the ECB and disagreement on future GDP growth, which disappears when controlling for monetary policy shocks proxied by changes in the policy rate in the quarter the forecasts are made.

We study the effects of taxation on the growth rate of the real per capita GDP in a sample of 21 OECD countries, over the period 1965–2010. To do this, we estimate a version of the model proposed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil [(1992) Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 407–437.] augmented to consider both direct and indirect effects of taxation on investment share parameters. We employ a semi-parametric technique—namely, a Finite Mixture Model—which combines features from mixed effect models for panel data and cluster analysis methods to account for country-specific unobserved heterogeneity. Our results suggest that taxes have a negative impact on growth: in the baseline model, the coefficient estimates indicate that a 10% cut in personal income tax rate (respectively corporate income tax rate) may raise the GDP growth rate by 0.6% (respectively 0.3%).

In this paper, we adopt a Ramsey optimal approach to identify the combination of income taxes, public expenditure, and inflation designed to achieve a fiscal consolidation. In contrast with empirical contributions that emphasize the benefits of expenditure-based consolidations, the optimal policy calls for increases in taxes and inflation. Strong monetary accommodation is quite beneficial relative to a situation where the Central Bank is only concerned with inflation stability and the inflation target is defined as a ceiling, as in the Eurozone.

Sovereign defaults are associated with income and trade reductions and terms-of-trade deterioration. This paper develops a two-country model to study the interactions between income, trade, terms of trade, and foreign-debt default risk and default events. Such default risk and events are costly because they adversely affect the demand for a borrower country’s intermediate goods exports and its income. Consequently, trade flows change due to the income loss and consumption home bias. The defaulter’s terms of trade also deteriorate endogenously, which accelerates its income and trade losses. The model produces procyclical imports, exports, terms of trade, and other empirical features of emerging countries’ business cycles and default episodes.

We explore the roles of subsidies in the Matsuyama model [K. Matsuyama, Econometrica 67 (1999), 335–347] of growth through cycles with a Solow investment phase and a Romer innovation phase when innovation and intermediate goods production rely on existing capital. We show that subsidies to R&D investment or to the purchase of new intermediate goods can arbitrarily reduce the threshold level of capital per type of intermediate good beyond which the economy moves to the innovation phase. Sufficient subsidization can eventually eliminate cycles. For plausible parameterizations, optimal subsidies can achieve significant welfare gains equivalent to as much as 10% rises in consumption at all times.

This note analytically examines the interrelations between macroeconomic (in)stability and investment adjustment costs in a one-sector endogenously growing small–open economy representative-agent model. We show that under costly capital accumulation, the economy exhibits indeterminacy and sunspots if and only if the equilibrium wage–hours locus slopes upward and is steeper than the household's labor supply curve. By contrast, the economy without adjustment costs for capital investment always displays saddlepath stability and equilibrium uniqueness, regardless of the degree of increasing returns inaggregate production.

The puzzling bias of equity portfolios toward domestic assets (equity home bias) remains substantial. This paper proposes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and demonstrates that shocks to consumption tastes (taste shocks) are an effective explanation for the equity home bias puzzle. In the model, home assets provide insurance for home agents to hedge against domestic taste fluctuations, whereas such insurance cannot be offered by foreign assets. The empirical evidence shows that, in explaining equity home bias, hedging against consumption taste risks is more relevant than hedging against labor income risks or real exchange rate risks.

This paper investigates the degree of comovements in quarterly Italian time series of sectoral output. A recently developed multivariate technique for the empirical analysis of long-run, cyclical and seasonal comovements is used in the context of a multisectoral real-business-cycle model augmented with persistent seasonal shocks in productivity. Our empirical results emphasize the role of input–output relations in the propagation mechanism and indicate that sectoral outputs have a relatively low number of common stochastic trends, in conflict with the hypothesis of independent productivity shocks. In contrast, stochastic seasonals seem to move idiosyncratically. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the theoretical model should be extended to allow for deterministic seasonal shifts in preferences.

This paper estimates univariate and multivariate trend-cycle decomposition models of GDP and considers the novel possibility of regime switches in the growth of potential output. We compute both ex post and real-time estimates of the output gap to check the stability of our estimates to GDP data revisions. We find some evidence of regime changes in the growth of potential output during the recessions experienced by the euro area. We also run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the predictive power of the output gap for inflation. The benchmark autoregressive model tends to obtain the best forecasts for one-quarter-ahead forecasts, but the output gap measures help to forecast inflation for longer horizons.

This paper considers an optimal endogenous growth model where the production function is assumed to exhibit increasing returns to scale and two types of resource (renewable and nonrenewable) are imperfect substitutes. Natural resources, labor, and physical capital are used in the final goods sector and in the accumulation of knowledge. Based on results in the calculus of variations, a direct proof of the existence of an optimal solution is provided. Analytical solutions for the planner case, balanced growth paths, and steady states are found for a specific CRRA utility and Cobb–Douglas production function. It is possible to have long-run growth where both energy resources are used simultaneously along the equilibrium path. As the law of motion of the technological change is not concave, reflecting the increasing returns to scale, so that the Arrow–Mangasarian sufficiency conditions do not apply, we provide a sufficient condition directly. Transitional dynamics to the steady state from the theoretical model are used to derive three convergence equations of output intensity growth rate, exhaustible resource growth rate, and renewable resource growth rate, which are tested based on OECD data on production and energy consumption.

We argue that a fixed exchange rate can be an optimal choice even if a policy maker could commit to the first-best monetary policy whenever the private sector's beliefs reflect incomplete information about the policy maker's dependability. This model implies that joining a currency area may be optimal for its impact not on the behavior of the policy maker, but on the beliefs of the private sector. Monetary policies are evaluated using a new Keynesian model of a small open economy solved under imperfect policy credibility. We quantify the minimum distance between announced policy and the private sector's beliefs that is necessary for a peg to perform better than an independent monetary policy when the policy maker can commit to the first-best policy.

We study identification in a class of linear rational expectations models. For any given exactly identified model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalent models that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to show that a model proposed by Jess Benhabib and Roger Farmer is observationally equivalent to the standard new-Keynesian model when observed over a single policy regime. However, the two models have different implications for the design of an optimal policy rule.

A monetary production model of financial firms is employed to investigate supply-side inside-money aggregation, augmented to include credit card transaction services. Inside money is a supply-side concept. Financial firms are conceived to produce monetary and credit card transaction services as outputs through financial intermediation. While credit cards provide transactions services, credit cards have never been included into measures of the money supply. The reason is accounting conventions, which do not permit adding liabilities to assets. However, index number theory measures service flows and is based on microeconomic aggregation theory, not accounting. We derive theory needed to measure the supply of the joint services of credit cards and inside money, needed to estimate the output supply function and to compute value added. The data needed for empirical implementation of our theory are available online from the Center for Financial Stability in New York City.

We examine how a subsidy policy for encouraging more individuals to pursue higher education affects economic growth in an overlapping generations model of R&D-based growth, including both product development and process innovation. We show that such a policy may have a negative effect on the long-run economic growth rate. When the market structure adjusts partially in the short run, the effect of an education subsidy on economic growth is ambiguous and depends on the values of the parameters. However, when the market structure adjusts fully in the long run, the education subsidy expands the number of firms but reduces economic growth. These unfavorable predictions of an education subsidy on economic growth are partly consistent with the empirical findings that mass higher education does not necessarily lead to higher economic growth.

One usually assumes that the joint probability distribution is known or that agents will use Bayesian updating to estimate the true probabilities after a number of trials when the states of nature are finite in classical decision theory under uncertainty. If there are important states that have very low probabilities of occurrence, then each agent must make a subjective assessment of the probability distribution until a sufficient number of outcomes are observed in order to generate a precise estimate of the probability distribution. If one assumes that all agents know the states and their payoffs, the probability distribution is stationary, and they observe all outcomes that unfold over time, then it will take at least 10 times the mean time between occurrences of the lowest probability event in order to generate enough outcomes that all agents share the same objective knowledge of the distribution. The mean time of recurrence depends on both the probability distribution and the time unit used between recordings of the observations. If at least one state has a low probability of occurrence, then the time to convergence will exceed the period of stationarity of the process.

In this paper, I examine the role of government spending persistence on fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in a more realistic environment while keeping the model simple enough to identify mechanisms driving the result. In particular, I build on a standard dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model with an occasionally binding ZLB and Rotemberg pricing with rebates, where the probability of hitting the ZLB and the government purchase shock are in line with US data. Moreover, I compute the multiplier in a state that mimics the Great Recession. The main findings of the paper are as follows: (1) the multiplier is non-monotonic in the persistence of government spending while the economy is at the ZLB; (2) given the persistence estimated from US data, the multiplier is 1.25; and (3) in the framework with perfect foresight or with aggregate resource cost for adjusting prices, the multiplier is around 1 or less.

This paper studies the dynamic propagation of a liquidity shock through two real propagation channels: dynamic complementarities and time-varying capital utilization. The findings for an economy with intertemporal externalities are: (1) An otherwise transient liquidity shock will have real effects on output for several years; (2) time-varying capital utilization strongly augments this propagation; (3) the real effects of monetary shocks last longer when external productivity depreciates faster; and (4) nominal prices respond more sluggishly to a change in the money supply when there is a strong real propagation channel.

This paper compares the effects of pro- and countercyclical government spending on income inequality and welfare in a small open economy. We examine the consequences of alternative government spending rules following shocks to productivity, domestic interest rates, terms of trade, and export demand. The simulated results show that welfare and income inequality indices can move in opposite directions for government spending rules, with countercyclical spending improving welfare and procyclical spending improving income equality.

This paper analyzes the global dynamics of a convex overlapping generations model with land. It derives a competitive equilibrium such that for every given initial level of capital per capita, the economy has a unique perfect-foresight equilibrium. It shows that the existence and uniqueness of this perfect-foresight equilibrium is robust to the presence of multiple steady-state levels of capital per capita. Furthermore, it shows that this model can provide an interesting insight into the economics of land taxation. Specifically, it shows that changes in the rate of land taxation may cause a bifurcation in the model's dynamical system and so may allow an economy with a low initial capital stock to break out of a “poverty trap” steady-state equilibrium.