1. The finances of life offices have been discussed by actuaries for more than a century and it seems entirely safe to predict that these discussions will continue into the future, with no diminution either of enthusiasm or of topics of general interest. The developing nature of many of these topics needs no emphasis, either from the viewpoint of changing external circumstances, or of the length of time which has elapsed since the first mention; for example, bonus reserve valuations were referred to in an Institute discussion nearly a century ago, investments in ordinary shares were mentioned before the close of the last century and variable assurances were touched upon over 30 years ago.

1. In the year 1800, when the Parliaments of Great Britain and Ireland were fused by the Act of Union establishing the United Kingdom, the population of Ireland was of the order of 5 millions. By 1821 the figure had risen to 6·8 millions and in 1841 it was 8·2 millions. During the following decade the population fell by 1-6 millions to 6·6 millions. By the year 1861 it was only 5·8 millions and thereafter it continued to decline steadily, though not with such rapidity, until in 1911 a figure of 4·4 millions was reached. Owing to the disturbed state of the country in 1921, the next census was not taken until 1926, after the political change in 1922 when twenty-six of the thirty-two counties into which the country was divided were established as a separate political entity, the Irish Free State (later to become a Republic), while the remaining six were constituted as Northern Ireland and continued to form part of the United Kingdom. The population of the whole island in 1926 and again in 1951 was 4·3 millions, that is to say, it differed only slightly in 1951 from what it was forty years earlier in 1911—see Table 1. The population of Ireland has, therefore, remained virtually stationary at about 4¼ millions for almost half a century. The trend of Irish population since 1841 is in striking contrast with the trend in England and Wales for, whereas in 1841 the population of Ireland was more than one-half of that in England and Wales, today it is less than one-tenth; the Irish population has almost halved while that of England and Wales has almost trebled.

1. The assessment of industrial ordinary shares has not yet been discussed by the Institute. This is surprising, both in view of the fact that British insurance companies hold ordinary shares to a value approaching £1000 million and also because actuaries are playing an increasing part in the investment world. The Institute is indeed the only professional body which examines candidates for membership in investment knowledge. Hitherto the examinations have been concerned mainly with general principles, but the widening of the scope of the syllabus since the war makes it necessary that the methods by which industrial shares are assessed should be discussed. It is the purpose of this paper to provide an opportunity for such a discussion.

A feature of modern wars has been the impetus which is given to the development of scientific and technical progress, a phenomenon which is very easily explained by the general urgency of development under the pressure of war requirements, the removal of normal limits on expenditure and the realization of the part that science can play in the development of the engines of war. This was shown to a marked extent in the second world war and amongst the examples can be quoted the vast development of electronic equipment, the emergence of the jet engine as an alternative to the internal combustion engine for motive power and the realization of the use of nuclear power, in the first instance in the form of explosive energy. However, over and above these examples of scientific and technical progress there was one development in the second world war of particular interest, the use of the scientific method of ‘operational research’ (hereafter denoted by O.R.).

In the course of preparing a paper dealing with statistics relating to fire insurance (Beard, 1957) the need arose to find numerical values of the confluent hypergeometric function for parameter values well outside any tabulated range, and this note is concerned with various approximations investigated in the course of these experiments.

Most of the 350,000 persons who are actively engaged in the service of the General Post Office are established civil servants to whom the provisions of the Superannuation Acts, 1834–1957, apply. Arrangements for pensioning civil servants when they retire are of long standing, and the number of former Post Office employees drawing pension has now risen to about 70,000, most of whom are men.

It is now June 1959—only eight years after the first magnetic tape computer was put to work in the U.S. Bureau of the Census. But it was not until mid-1954 that the appropriate auxiliary machines needed to complement this computer became available. In a very real sense, magnetic tape data processing facilities suitable for business operations are only five years old at this time.

Yet, in so short a time, possibly 300 or more tape-operated data processing systems have already been installed in the United States. A great deal has been written and said regarding the use of this equipment and its impact on current practices. There is much yet to be said. As we come to grips with the immediate and difficult job of putting it to work we can be encouraged by the very substantial progress already achieved by both manufacturers and users. In just a few years, the initial approach to computers has changed so much that the key question ‘Can electronic computers be relied upon?’ has become for many ‘Which one should I get?’