The problem discussed is that of determining optimal release rates for finite dams when the release rate may take one of two values and specific costs are involved in increasing and decreasing this release rate. From another point of view, this is a problem of controlling the output simply by switching on and off. A diffusion model is suggested and by considering a family of plausible output policies an optima procedure, which minimises the long-term average cost of operating the dam, is established. Various properties of this output policy are given.

This note explores the behaviour of the implied volatility of a European call option far from maturity. Asymptotic formulae are derived with precise control over the error terms. The connection between the asymptotic implied volatility and the cumulant generating function of the logarithm of the underlying stock price is discussed in detail and illustrated by examples.

Moran's [1] early investigations into the theory of storage systems began in 1954 with a paper on finite dams; the inputs flowing into these during consecutive annual time-intervals were assumed to form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. Until 1963, storage theory concentrated essentially on an examination of dams, both finite and infinite, fed by inputs (discrete or continuous) which were additive. For reviews of the literature in this field up to 1963, the reader is referred to Gani [2] and Prabhu [3].

For a distribution function F on (0,∞), regular variation of its tail is known to imply that F is subexponential. Let be merely of dominated variation. This note shows that F need not be subexponential, and investigates which of the known necessary conditions for subexponentiality become sufficient when insisted upon for such an F.

A distribution F of a non-negative random variable belongs to the subexponential family of distributions S if 1 – F(2)(x) ~ 2(1 – F(x)) as x →∞. This family is of considerable interest in branching processes, queueing theory, transient renewal theory and infinite divisibility theory. Much is known about the kind of distributions that belong to S but the question of whether S is closed under convolution has remained unresolved for some time. This paper contains an example which demonstrates that S is not in fact closed.

Let X1, X2,· ·· be a (linear or circular) sequence of trials with three possible outcomes (say S, S∗ or F) in each trial. In this paper, the waiting time for the first appearance of an S-run of length k or an S∗-run of length r is systematically investigated. Exact formulae and Chen-Stein approximations are derived for the distribution of the waiting times in both linear and circular problems and their asymptotic behaviour is illustrated. Probability generating functions are also obtained when the trials are identical. Finally, practical applications of these results are discussed in some detail.

We consider the problem of how to schedule n tasks on to several identical processors to meet the objective of minimising the expected flow-time. The strategy which always serves those tasks whose processing-time distributions have the highest hazard rates is shown to be optimal when these distributions are all exponential.

If Δr denotes the waitingtime between the (r − 1)st and the rth upper record in a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables with a continuous distribution, then it is shown that Δr satisfies the weak law of large numbers and a central limit theorem.

This theorem supplements those of Foster and Stuart and Rényi, who investigated the index Vr of the rth upper record.

Qualitatively the theorems establish the intuitive fact that for higher records, the waitingtime between the last two records outweighs even the total waitingtime for previous records. This explains also why the asymptotic normality of logVr is very inadequate for approximation purposes—Barton and Mallows.

The Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance, and many other fields. In this paper we obtain a functional central limit theorem for the nonlinear Hawkes process. Under the same assumptions, we also obtain a Strassen's invariance principle, i.e. a functional law of the iterated logarithm.

Using the theory of point processes, we give a formal treatment to queueing processes in the steady state. Based on this result, we obtain invariance relations between several quantities in G/G/c queues. As applications, the finiteness of their moments is discussed for G/G′/c queues. The basic results and notations used in this paper are contained in the author's previous paper (Miyazawa (1977)).

In this paper we study the equilibrium behavior of the queue lengths in a product-form closed queueing network when the service rates at a subset of stations (nodes) are increased. Univariate and multivariate likelihood ratio orderings as well as multivariate stochastic ordering of the queue lengths are established to indicate the effect of increasing the service rates. Relations among these orderings are also developed.

Customers enter a pool according to a Poisson process and wait there to be found and processed by a single server. The service times of successive items are independent and have a common general distribution. Successive services are separated by seek phases during which the server searches for the next customer. The search process is Markovian and the probability of locating a customer in (t, t + dt) is proportional to the number of customers in the pool at time t. Various stationary probability distributions for this model are obtained in explicit forms well-suited for numerical computation.

Under the assumption of exponential service times, corresponding results are obtained for the case where customers may escape from the pool.

We establish stability, monotonicity, concavity and subadditivity properties for open stochastic storage networks in which the driving process has stationary increments. A principal example is a stochastic fluid network in which the external inputs are random but all internal flows are deterministic. For the general model, the multi-dimensional content process is tight under the natural stability condition. The multi-dimensional content process is also stochastically increasing when the process starts at the origin, implying convergence to a proper limit under the natural stability condition. In addition, the content process is monotone in its initial conditions. Hence, when any content process with non-zero initial conditions hits the origin, it couples with the content process starting at the origin. However, in general, a tight content process need not hit the origin.

A new burn-in procedure for a repairable component is proposed. During a burn-in period, the failed component is only minimally repaired rather than being completely repaired. This procedure is shown to be economical and efficient when the minimal repair method is applicable during a burn-in process. The properties of the optimal burn-in time b∗ and block replacement policy T∗ are also given.

Classical results describe the asymptotic behaviour of a Galton–Watson branching process conditioned on non-extinction. We give new proofs of limit theorems in critical and subcritical cases. The proofs are based on the representation of conditioned Galton–Watson generation sizes as a sum of independent increments which is derived from the decomposition of the conditioned Galton–Watson family tree along the line of descent of the left-most particle.

We prove that for a diffusion process the first-passage-time p.d.f. through a continuous-time function with bounded derivative satisfies a Volterra integral equation of the second kind whose kernel and right-hand term are probability currents. For the case of the standard Wiener process this equation is solved in closed form not only for the class of boundaries already introduced by Park and Paranjape [15] but also for all boundaries of the type S(I) = a + bt ‘/p (p ∼ 2, a, b E ∼) for which no explicit analytical results have previously been available.

This note deals with extinction criteria for bisexual Galton–Watson processes with arbitrary mating functions in terms of the averaged reproduction mean per mating unit. It gives a satisfactory answer to a question put forward by Hull (1982).

The transition p.d.f. for a one-dimensional Rayleigh process in the presence of an absorption condition or a zero-flux condition in the origin is obtained in closed form. The first-passage-time problem through an arbitrary constant boundary is then considered and the moment-generating function is determined. In some particular cases the first-passage-time p.d.f. is explicitly derived. Use of some of these results is finally made to obtain the transition p.d.f. of the affine drift-linear infinitesimal-variance diffusion process when the origin is an entrance or a regular boundary in the presence of a reflection condition.

A discrete-time network with multiple transitions is defined. It is characterized by the independence of the service processes at different nodes. That network is shown to have the familiar quasi-reversibility properties.

Let U denote the set of all integers, and suppose that Y = {Yu; u ∈ U} is a process of standardized, independent and identically distributed random variables with finite third moment and with a common absolutely continuous distribution function (d.f.) G (·). Let a = {au; u ∈ U} be a sequence of real numbers with Σuau2 = 1. Then Xu = ΣwawYu–w defines a stationary linear process X = {Xu; u ɛ U} with E(Xu) = 0, E(Xu2) = 1 for u ∊ U. Let F(·) be the d.f. of X0. We prove that if maxu |au| is small, then (i) for each w, Xw is close to Gaussian in the sense that ∫∞−∞(F(y) − Φ(y))2dy ≦ g maxu |au | where Φ(·) is the standard Gaussian d.f., and g depends only on G(·); (ii) for each finite set (w1, … wn), (Xw1, … Xwn) is close to Gaussian in a similar sense; (iii) the process X is close to Gaussian in a somewhat restricted sense. Several properties of the measures of distance from Gaussianity employed are investigated, and the relation of maxu|au| to the bandwidth of the filter a is studied.