The 1996 Farm Act and the 1994 Crop Insurance Reform Act are recent examples of policy changes that have increased risks for U.S. farmers. New products are emerging to help farmers manage risks. This article examines some of the policy changes, farmer responses, and new risk-sharing products. The focus turns to the new revenue insurance products and their potential in the South. While there are reasons to believe revenue insurance should be attractive in the South, any revenue products that use existing crop insurance rates will face difficulties since poor actuarial performance in the South has resulted in relatively high rates.

The 1996 farm bill challenges agricultural producers to pursue conservation objectives while allowing flexibility and reducing subsidies. The nature of this challenge for semi-arid rainfed, wind-erosion-prone agriculture is explored via a behavioral model. Simulations of farm-firm decision making under scenarios in the southern Texas High Plains are evaluated. Results indicate that the removal of subsidies, while lowering farm incomes, does not, under most assumptions, alter cropping system choice. Alternatively, under a variety of assumptions, the imposition of an erosion tax shuts down cropping.

Data from 100 farming-dependent counties in the U.S. are used to measure the impact of acreage reduction programs on the level of the rural nonfarm population. Results of a simultaneous equation model suggest that the programs had a negative influence on the number of rural nonfarm people, reducing the rural nonfarm population in these counties by an estimated 15-16% over the 1960-90 period.

The sensitivity of farm inventory investment to movements in cash flow is tested. Inventories should be sensitive to shifts in cash flow because inventory investment is readily reversible and inventories are a significant portion of assets. Investment models estimated with Kansas farm panel data indicate that: (a) farms absorb internal finance shocks by adjusting inventories, (b) the inventory investment of livestock and high-debt farms are more sensitive to movements in cash flow than crop and low-debt farms, and (c) inventory investment is more sensitive to cash flow during the 1981-86 bust and the 1987-92 recovery than during the 1975-80 boom.

Ray et al. have examined the national agricultural sector impacts of the 1996 FAIR Act using a stochastic simulation model based on the Policy Analysis System (POLYSYS). The model outcomes are predictions of various economic measures, including the coefficient of variation of net returns for corn, wheat, soy-beans, and cotton. Then Knutson et al. use the results of the Ray et al. simulations to predict the distribution of net farm income over the next 10 years for several types of representative southern farms. Any attempt to measure the changes in riskiness in southern agriculture is commendable—even heroic—and I applaud these efforts, both the national modeling effort by Ray et al. and the application to southern representative farms by Knutson et al. This task has a lot in common, I think, with trying to “tease out” the temperature changes associated with the greenhouse effect. The number of factors and mechanisms at work is mind-boggling. It's tough enough to try to get a handle on what might happen to the first moment of net farm income over the next 10 years, let alone the second.

Finite mixture estimation (FME) is compared to estimated generalized least squares (EGLS) in the estimation of economies of size and production cost frontiers for Alabama dairy farms. FME provides several unique insights into the economic forces behind recent changes in Alabama's dairy industry. FME provides estimation of a stochastic average cost frontier with known statistical properties, which it was not otherwise possible to obtain using available stochastic frontier estimation packages.

Microbial pathogens and pesticide residues in food pose a financial burden to society which can be reduced by incurring costs to reduce these food safety risks. We explore three valuation techniques that place a monetary value on food safety risk reductions, and we present a case study for each: a contingent valuation survey on pesticide residues, an experimental auction market for a chicken sandwich with reduced risk of Salmonella, and a cost-of-illness analysis for seven foodborne pathogens. Estimates from these techniques can be used in cost/benefit analyses for policies that reduce food safety risks.

The forest and agriculture sectors are linked by having a portion of their land bases suitable for use in either sector. A substantial part of the southern land base is suitable for either forestry or agriculture use, with most of forestation on U.S. agriculture land in the South. We examine how land exchanges between forestry and agriculture are influenced by specific federal conservation and farm support policies, including changes in the Conservation Reserve Program. Reallocation of land is a significant part of the sectors' responses to the policies, along with intensification of timber management on existing southern forests.

Recently enacted food safety regulations require processors to meet product standards for microbial contamination in meat products. An analysis of the cost-effectiveness of several technological interventions for microbial control in beef and pork processing shows that marginal improvements in food safety can be obtained, but at increasing costs. The additional food safety intervention costs represent about 1% of total processing costs for beef and pork. Some interventions and combinations are more cost-effective than others.

Mathematical programming formulations can yield faulty answers. Models can be unbounded, infeasible, or optimal with unrealistic answers. This article presents techniques for theory-based discovery of the cause of faulty models. The approaches are demonstrated in the context of linear programming. They have been computerized and interfaced using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), and are distributed free of charge through new GAMS versions and an online web page.

This paper traces the economic impact of the costs of foodborne illness on the U.S. economy using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework. Previous estimates of the costs of seven foodborne pathogens are disaggregated by type, and distributed across the population using data from the National Health Interview Survey. Initial income losses resulting from premature death cause a decrease in economic activity. Medical costs, in contrast, result in economic growth, though this growth does not outweigh the total costs of premature death. A SAM accounting of how the costs of illness are diffused through the economy provides useful information for policy makers.

China's agricultural trade expanded rapidly following economic reforms and the open-door policy adopted in the late 1970s. The composition of agricultural trade with China follows its labor-abundant and land-scarce resource endowment with imports of bulk and processed intermediates and exports of consumer-ready and processed goods. Constraints on U.S.China agricultural trade include tariffs, state trading, food security policies, and other nontariff barriers. Growth potential is based on China's fundamental demand forces including the world's largest population, a high real-income growth rate, an emerging urban middle class, and further trade reforms to be implemented through accession to the World Trade Organization.