Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare the cost and the effectiveness of two biennial fecal occult blood screening tests for colorectal cancer: a guaiac nonrehydrated test (G-FOBT) and an immunochemical test (I-FOBT) with the absence of screening.

Methods: A Markov model was developed to compare these strategies in a general population of subjects aged 50 to 74 over a 20-year period.

Results: Compared with the absence of screening, G-FOBT and I-FOBT were associated with a decrease in colorectal cancer mortality of 17.4 percent and 25.2 percent, respectively. With regard to cost-effectiveness, expressed as cost per life-year gained, I-FOBT was the most effective and most costly alternative. Compared with no screening, G-FOBT and I-FOBT presented similar discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios: €2,739 and €2,819 respectively per life-year gained. When compared with G-FOBT, I-FOBT presented an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €2,988 per life-year gained. Sensitivity analyses showed the strong influence of the I-FOBT lead time, of the participation rate to screening for I-FOBT, and of the purchase price of the I-FOBT on the discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Conclusions: Compared with the absence of screening and with G-FOBT, the biennial two-stool immunochemical test can be considered a promising method for mass screening for colorectal cancer.

Objectives: Adjuvant trastuzumab is widely used in HER2-positive (HER2+) early breast cancer, and despite its cost-effectiveness, it causes substantial costs for health care. The purpose of the study was to develop a tool for estimating the budget impact of new cancer treatments. With this tool, we were able to estimate the budget impact of adjuvant trastuzumab, as well as the probability of staying within a given budget constraint.

Methods: The created model-based evaluation tool was used to explore the budget impact of trastuzumab in early breast cancer in a single Finnish hospital district with 250,000 inhabitants. The used model took into account the number of patients, HER2+ prevalence, length and cost of treatment, and the effectiveness of the therapy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and alternative case scenarios were performed to ensure the robustness of the results.

Results: Introduction of adjuvant trastuzumab caused substantial costs for a relatively small hospital district. In base-case analysis the 4-year net budget impact was €1.3 million. The trastuzumab acquisition costs were partially offset by the reduction in costs associated with the treatment of cancer recurrence and metastatic disease.

Conclusions: Budget impact analyses provide important information about the overall economic impact of new treatments, and thus offer complementary information to cost-effectiveness analyses. Inclusion of treatment outcomes and probabilistic sensitivity analysis provides more realistic estimates of the net budget impact. The length of trastuzumab treatment has a strong effect on the budget impact.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost of percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (PRFA) and surgical resection (SRS) for the management of early stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Methods: A systematic literature search of articles in English, French, and Chinese was performed using online databases. Only articles with patients classified as Child-Pugh Class A or B, with tumor size <5 cm were included. A meta-analysis was carried out to estimate the survival rate and disease-free survival rate following PRFA or SRS treatments. The cost of each treatment was estimated from the third party perspective. Univariate sensitivity analyses were used to study the relative importance of each component cost.

Results: We identified six studies (one randomized controlled trial (RCT) and five comparative cohort studies) meeting our inclusion criteria. There is good evidence that among Child-Pugh A patients for whom both SRS and PRFA are available options, survival rates following either procedure are comparable, while complications are more frequent and hospitalization longer following SRS. The evidence concerning recurrence rates and disease-free survival is less clear. Whereas the RCT indicates comparable outcomes with either procedure up to 3 years, the results of five cohort studies (with possible selection bias), particularly those with a mix of Child-Pugh A and B patients, favor the surgical option. SRS, costs approximately Canadian $8,275 more per case than PRFA.

Conclusions: Continuing doubts on this issue can only be resolved by a substantial RCT. Meanwhile, for early stage HCC patients classified as Child-Pugh A, who despite a possibly higher recurrence rate, prefer the less invasive PRFA to open surgery with its attendant risks, there is sufficient evidence to justify such a choice. For those classified as Child-Pugh (B) it is possible that overall survival is equally good with PRFA, but the evidence is less certain.

Objectives: Health technology assessment (HTA) programs influence practice on a broad scale through reimbursement decisions or national guidelines. Hospital-based HTA programs inform clinical decisions at the local level. Typically, they do this by adapting general HTA to their local setting, or by creating new HTA. However, unlike payer-based HTA organizations, hospital-based HTA organizations can also integrate local data into their reports.

Methods: We describe two examples of local data integrated into hospital-based HTA. In the first, qualitative data were used to select a new cardiac catheterization lab. In the second, quantitative data was used to inform a decision on whether to continue telemedicine services to critical care units. Local evidence sources included equipment service records, and interviews with physicians, technicians, and administrative staff in the first example, and the hospital's administrative and claims databases in the second example.

Results: In each case, there was little evidence from the peer-reviewed literature that could be applied to the decision. In the first example, staffing patterns and local preferences had considerable bearing on technology choices. In the second example, local outcomes data from administrative records were decisive.

Conclusions: Hospital-based HTA using local data can fill gaps in the published evidence, and also improve the generalizability of evidence to the local setting. To take advantage of local evidence, health systems should encourage the development of hospital-based HTA centers, seek out local preference data, and maintain databases of patient outcomes and utilization of services.

Background: Most industrialized countries, including France, have undertaken to generalize colorectal cancer screening using guaiac fecal occult blood tests (G-FOBT). However, recent researches demonstrate that immunochemical fecal occult blood tests (I-FOBT) are more effective than G-FOBT. Moreover, new generation I-FOBT benefits from a quantitative reading technique allowing the positivity threshold to be chosen, hence offering the best balance between effectiveness and cost. We aimed at comparing the cost and the clinical performance of one round of screening using I-FOBT at different positivity thresholds to those obtained with G-FOBT to determine the optimal cut-off for I-FOBT.

Methods: Data were derived from an experiment conducted from June 2004 to December 2005 in Calvados (France) where 20,322 inhabitants aged 50–74 years performed both I-FOBT and G-FOBT. Clinical performance was assessed by the number of advanced tumors screened, including large adenomas and cancers. Costs were assessed by the French Social Security Board and included only direct costs.

Results: Screening using I-FOBT resulted in better health outcomes and lower costs than screening using G-FOBT for thresholds comprised between 75 and 93 ng/ml. I-FOBT at 55 ng/ml also offers a satisfactory alternative to G-FOBT, because it is 1.8-fold more effective than G-FOBT, without increasing the number of unnecessary colonoscopies, and at an extra cost of €2,519 per advanced tumor screened.

Conclusions: The use of an automated I-FOBT at 75 ng/ml would guarantee more efficient screening than currently used G-FOBT. Health authorities in industrialized countries should consider the replacement of G-FOBT by an automated I-FOBT test in the near future.

Objectives: We describe, in general, the principles used in priority setting and, in particular, policy processes and decision making in Norway.

Methods: A newly established council for setting priorities in health care is presented to illustrate how health technology assessments (HTAs) can support national advisors in complex priority-setting processes.

Results and Conclusions: Setting priorities in health care is a complex task. Careful thinking is, therefore, required in determining the components of a system for priority-setting. Based on recent Norwegian experiences, we believe that the following generic parts may provide some of the solution: a common set of values; an organizational structure made up of key stakeholders; supporting mechanisms in the form of HTA organizations and documented best evidence; and loyalty to decisions by stakeholders responsible for implementing national policies.

Objectives: Endobronchial ultrasound (EBUS), encompassing endobronchial ultrasound transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) and Endobronchial ultrasound transbronchial lung biopsy (EBUS-TBLB) has been proven to be a useful modality in the staging and diagnosis of lung cancer. However, there are limited publications on the cost-effectiveness of EBUS and no economic evaluations relevant to the Singapore setting. An economic evaluation using our hospital's data was used to assess the cost implications of EBUS substituting where clinically appropriate: transthoracic needle aspiration; (TTNA), fluoroscopy-guided transbronchial lung biopsy (TBLB), and mediastinoscopy in the diagnosis and staging of lung cancer.

Methods: Relationship between the clinical and economic implications of alternative modalities was modeled using data inputs that were relevant to the Singapore setting. Two decision analytic models were constructed to evaluate the cost of EBUS compared with TTNA, TBLB, and staging mediastinoscopy. Only direct costs were imputed.

Results: In the base–case analysis, TTNA was the most economical strategy (SGD3,335 = US$2,403) where clinically suitable for the diagnosis of lung cancer as compared to the other options: TBLB (SGD4,499) and EBUS-TBLB (SGD4,857). On the other hand, EBUS-TBNA resulted in expected cost savings of SGD1,214 per positive staging of lung cancer as compared to mediastinoscopy.

Conclusions: The use of EBUS-TBNA could result in cost savings of SGD1,214 per positive staging of lung cancer as compared to mediastinoscopy. Whereas TTNA was the most economical intervention for the diagnosis of lung cancer as compared to the other options, its main limitation lies in its suitability only for peripheral lung lesions and high complication rate.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to review, systematically and critically, evidence used to derive estimates of cost-effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) screening.

Methods: A systematic review was conducted. Searched were three main electronic bibliographic databases from 1993 to 2008 using key words including HIV, mass screening, HAART, economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness analysis, modeling. We included studies of sexually transmitted HIV infection in both sexes, including studies comparing diagnostic testing protocols and partner notification. Outcomes included were cases of HIV infection detected, deterioration to the AIDS state, secondary transmission of HIV, the quality-adjusted life-years/survival, costs, and cost-effectiveness of HIV screening.

Results: Eighty-four papers were identified; ten of which were formal economic evaluations, one cost study, three effectiveness studies, and three systematic reviews of HIV prevention programs. The predominant assertion was that HIV screening is cost-effective; methodological problems, such as the preponderance of static models which are inappropriate for infectious diseases, varying perspectives from which the studies were analyzed, and arbitrary threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratio levels, limited the validity of these findings, and their usefulness in informing health policy decisions.

Conclusions: The majority of published economic evaluations are based on inappropriate static models. This flaw renders the results of these studies as inconclusive and the purported cost-effectiveness of HIV screening debatable. The results of this review could form a basis for consideration of further research and analysis by health economists into the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening.

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of infliximab use in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Swedish clinical practice, based on patient-level data from the Stockholm TNF-alpha follow-up registry (STURE).

Methods: Real-world patient-level data on infliximab use from the STURE registry were implemented in a Markov cohort model, in which health states of functional status were classified according to the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ—five categories) and twenty-eight joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28). The transition probabilities between HAQ and DAS28 states during treatment, as well as discontinuation rates were modeled based on data from the registry for patients using infliximab as their first-line biological treatment. The transition probabilities in the comparator arm, that is, disease progression without biologic treatment, as well as mortality rates, costs, and utilities were based on published literature. The analysis had a societal cost perspective.

Results: Infliximab was associated with an incremental gain in quality-adjusted life-years of 1.02 and an incremental cost of €23,264 per patient compared with progression without biologic treatment, producing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €22,830 (SEK211,136 or US$31,230). Sensitivity analyses of input parameters and model assumptions produced ICERs in the range from €18,000 to €47,000.

Conclusions: Results from base-case and sensitivity analyses fell well below established benchmarks for cost-effectiveness in Sweden. The results, therefore, indicated that infliximab treatment for RA has provided good societal value for money in Swedish clinical practice, compared with a scenario of no biological treatment.

Objectives: The objective of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of enhanced external counterpulsation (EECP) compared with no treatment as additional therapy to usual care for the treatment of chronic stable angina from the perspective of the UK National Health Service.

Methods: The study design was a systematic review of published evidence, use of expert clinical opinion, and decision analytic cost-effectiveness model. The systematic review was conducted and statistical methods used to synthesize the effectiveness evidence from randomized control trials. Formal methods were used to elicit opinion from clinical experts where no evidence was available. These provide informed “priors” on key model parameters. A decision analytic model was developed to assess the costs and health consequences associated with the primary outcome of the trials over a lifetime time horizon. The main outcome measures were costs from a health service perspective and outcomes measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

Results: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EECP was £18,643 for each additional QALY, with a probability of being cost-effective of 0.44 and 0.70 at cost-effectiveness thresholds of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY gained, respectively. Results were sensitive to the duration of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) benefits from treatment.

Conclusions: The long-term maintenance of HRQoL benefits of EECP is central to the estimate of cost-effectiveness. The results from a single randomized control trial do not provide firm evidence of the clinical or cost-effectiveness of EECP in stable angina. Long-term follow-up trials assessing quality of life from EECP are required.

Objectives: The objective of this study is to profile the health technology assessments (HTAs) produced in Canada and other selected countries and assess their potential to inform policy making about health systems in jurisdictions other than the ones for which they were produced, and to develop and pilot test prototypes for packaging and assessing the relevance of HTAs for health system managers and policy makers.

Methods: We compiled an inventory of all HTAs that were produced by nine HTA agencies between September 2003 and August 2006; coded the title and abstract of each HTA according to the technologies assessed, methods used, and whether or not context-specific actionable messages were provided; developed a prototype for a structured, decision-relevant HTA summary and for a relevance-assessment form; and pilot-tested the prototypes using semistructured telephone interviews with a purposive sample of Canadian healthcare managers and policy makers.

Results: Our review of the 223 HTAs identified that: (i) 44 HTAs addressed health system arrangements (20 percent); (ii) 205 incorporated a systematic review (92 percent), whereas only 12 incorporated a sociopolitical assessment using explicit methods (5 percent); and (iii) 50 contained context-specific actionable messages (22 percent). Our interviews identified significant support for both the general idea of an HTA summary and the prototype's specific elements, but mixed views about using peer assessments of relevance.

Conclusions: Those involved in supporting the use of HTAs in policy making about health systems may wish to produce structured decision-relevant summaries for their systematic review-containing HTAs to increase the prospects for their HTAs being used outside the jurisdiction for which they were produced.

Background: The way in which a health technology is used in any particular health system depends on the decisions and actions of a variety of stakeholders, the local culture, and context. In 2009, the HTAi Policy Forum considered how health technology assessment (HTA) could be improved to optimize the use of technologies (in terms of uptake, change in use, or disinvestment) in such complex systems.

Methods: In scoping, it was agreed to focus on initiatives to implement evidence-based guidance and monitoring activities. A review identified systematic reviews of implementation initiatives and monitoring activities. A two-day deliberative workshop was held to discuss key papers, members’ experiences, and collectively address key questions. This consensus paper was developed by email and finalized at a postworkshop meeting.

Results: Evidence suggests that the impact and use of HTA could be increased by ensuring timely delivery of relevant reports to clearly determined policy receptor (decision-making) points. To achieve this, the breadth of assessment, implementation initiatives such as incentives and targeted, intelligent dissemination of HTA result, needs to be considered. HTA stakeholders undertake a variety of monitoring activities, which could inform optimal use of a technology. However, the quality of these data varies and is often not submitted to an HTA.

Conclusions: Monitoring data should be sufficiently robust so that they can be used in HTA to inform optimal use of technology. Evidence-based implementation initiatives should be developed for HTA, to better inform decision makers at all levels in a health system about the optimal use of technology.

Objectives: The objective of this study was to simulate human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in a heterosexual population and subsequently analyze the incremental costs and effects of introducing a vaccination program against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18 in Denmark compared with screening alone.

Methods: The analysis was performed in two phases. First, an agent-based transmission model was developed that described the HPV transmission without and with HPV vaccination. Second, an analysis of the incremental costs and effects was performed. The results of prevalence estimates of HPV, genital warts, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1–3), and cervical cancer in the model simulations before and after introduction of HPV vaccination were extrapolated to the Danish population figures. Incremental costs and effects were then estimated. Future costs and effects were discounted.

Results: Cost-effectiveness ratios for annual vaccination of 12-year-old girls, with a vaccination rate of 70 percent without a catch-up program, were estimated at approximately €1,917 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY, 3 percent discount rate) and €10,846/QALY (5 percent discount rate), given a 62-year time horizon.

Conclusions: A vaccination program would incur extra vaccination costs but would save treatment costs and improve both quality of life and survival.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to present and illustrate an instrument to measure the level of innovation at country level.

Methods: The data used are the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) health data 2009, in particular the information on use of medical technology. Two composite scales expressing a relative level of adoption of innovations in health care are regressed, using multilevel regression analysis, on country characteristics. The country characteristics are selected as proxies on availability or scarcity of resources in a country. We expect that scarcity will promote adoption of innovations that enhance efficiency, and that availability of resources will promote advanced, expensive innovations.

Results: Two scales were constructed. One scale indicates the use of efficiency-enhancing innovations (day case treatment), and the other scale indicates availability of advanced technical innovations. The application of day case treatment is significantly associated with education level (+), the ratio of people aged 15–64 versus younger and older people (+) and the number of hospital beds (−). Availability of advanced medical devices are associated with the expenditure on health (+), demographic dependency (−), number of hospital beds (+), and the annual reduction of hospital beds (−).

Conclusions: Diffusion of innovations is influenced by characteristics of the country and of the healthcare system; fewer resources encourage diffusion of innovations that enhance efficiency and more resources encourage diffusion of complex, expensive devices. This indicates that decisions by healthcare professionals on which innovation to adopt is embedded in a context that is influenced and shaped by the availability of resources on macro level.

Objectives: The UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has been widely hailed as an international leader in health technology assessment. The objectives of its guidance are to ensure uniformity in healthcare provision, and promote a systematic and accountable way to allocate resources. However, research relating to the implementation of guidance is limited, and little is known about how it influences decision making at the consultation level or how useful it is to individual patients.

Methods: In-depth interviews were undertaken with professionals involved in healthcare provision at the community level, and with clinical professionals and patients providing or receiving care for morbid obesity and breast cancer (n = 52).

Results: Although NICE guidance was generally well-regarded, in practice it was of more importance and usefulness to managerial than clinical professionals. Clinicians used a patchy approach to implementation depending on whether recommendations accorded with their personal interpretation of the evidence available, and whether funding was available locally. Many patients had not heard of NICE, and clinical professionals did not alert them to its existence. Even where patients knew about relevant guidance, they were rarely able to use it to assert their right to treatment.

Conclusions: These findings challenge the perception that NICE guidance results in consistent and accountable decision making, and the limited accessibility and usefulness of guidance to patients suggests more information and support is needed at the point of provision if these objectives are to be achieved.

Objectives: Type 2 diabetes is the main cause of end-stage renal disease in Europe and the United States. Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors slow down the progression of renal disease and, therefore, provide a renal-protective effect. The aim of this study was to assess the most cost-effective time to start an ACE inhibitor (or an angiotensin II receptor blocker in the event of cough) in patients with type 2 diabetes in Germany.

Methods: Three strategies were compared: treating all patients at the time of diagnosing type 2 diabetes, screening for microalbuminuria, and screening for macroalbuminuria. A lifetime Markov decision model with simulated 50-year-old patients with newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus was developed using published data on costs and health outcomes and simulating the progression of renal disease. A statutory health insurance perspective was adopted.

Results: In the base-case analysis, the treat-all strategy is associated with the lowest costs and highest benefit and, therefore, dominates screening both for macroalbuminuria and microalbuminuria. A multivariate sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of savings is 89 percent.

Conclusions: Patients with type 2 diabetes should receive an ACE inhibitor immediately after diagnosis if they do not have contraindications. The potential for cost savings would be even larger if the prevention of cardiovascular events were considered.

Background: Clearly the benefits of a treatment must not be outweighed by the adverse effects. If researchers fail to incorporate adverse effects adequately in models, this could limit the validity of the results obtained. In the worst case, interventions that are cost-effective may be shown not to be. The aim of this research was to review current practice when incorporating adverse effects in economic models.

Methods: A survey of HTA reports commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme, published between 2004 and 2007 was conducted. All reports which investigated the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a health technology using a systematic review and an economic model framework were included.

Results: A total of eighty reports met the inclusion criteria. Of the models including adverse effects (43/80), 67 percent used a clinical adverse effects parameter, 79 percent a cost of adverse effects parameter, 86 percent used one of these, and 60 percent used both. Of the thirty-seven models that did not include adverse effects, eighteen justified this omission, most commonly lack of data; nineteen appeared to make no explicit consideration of adverse effects in the model.

Conclusions: In many cases, poor reporting made it difficult to ascertain if there had been any consideration of adverse effects. We suggest that the findings of this survey support a call for much clearer and explicit reporting of adverse effects, or their exclusion, in decision models and for explicit recognition in future guidelines that “all relevant outcomes” should include some consideration of adverse events.

Previously, our group—the International Working Group for HTA Advancement—proposed a set of fifteen Key Principles that could be applied to health technology assessment (HTA) programs in different jurisdictions and across a range of organizations and perspectives. In this commentary, we investigate the extent to which these principles are supported and used by fourteen selected HTA organizations worldwide. We find that some principles are broadly supported: examples include being explicit about HTA goals and scope; considering a wide range of evidence and outcomes; and being unbiased and transparent. Other principles receive less widespread support: examples are addressing issues of generalizability and transferability; being transparent on the link between HTA findings and decision-making processes; considering a full societal perspective; and monitoring the implementation of HTA findings. The analysis also suggests a lack of consensus in the field about some principles—for example, considering a societal perspective. Our study highlights differences in the uptake of key principles for HTA and indicates considerable room for improvement for HTA organizations to adopt principles identified to reflect good HTA practices. Most HTA organizations espouse certain general concepts of good practice—for example, assessments should be unbiased and transparent. However, principles that require more intensive follow-up—for example, monitoring the implementation of HTA findings—have received little support and execution.

Objectives: A set of fifteen key principles (KP) has been recently proposed to guide decisions on the structure of HTA programs, the methods of HTA, the processes for conducting HTA and the use of HTA findings in decision-making. The objective of this research is to explore whether these KPs are relevant and useful in Latin America (LA), and to what extent they are being applied.

Methods: A Web-based survey was sent to 11,792 HTA researchers and users in LA to explore the perceived relevance of each KP, its current level of application and the gap between these two.

Results: We received 1,142 responses from nineteen LA countries (9.7 percent response rate). The subgroup of KP related to Methods and to the Use of HTA received the higher mean scores in the relevance scale (9.00 and 8.94). Level of current application scored low in all KP (3.2 to 4.9). Higher gaps were observed in principles related to the use of HTA in decision making and to the processes for conducting HTA. Countries with more developed HTA showed higher scores in the degree of current application (5.3 versus 3.4, p < .01) and lower gaps (3.84 versus 5.21, p < .01). Researchers, compared with research users, scored the relevance of the KPs higher.

Conclusions: KPs seem to be very relevant to most HTA researchers and users in LA. However, the current level of application was considered uniformly poor. Higher gaps were observed in KPs related to the link between HTA and decision making, highlighting one of the major challenges for the countries in the region.

Objectives: Many innovative health technologies do not have a sufficient evidence-base to allow for adequate assessment of their benefits. Funders in several countries have been exploring arrangements that allow for temporary or partial coverage of these technologies, but only as part of a further evaluation. The public's support of arrangements that restrict access to innovative technology until sufficient evidence is available is crucial if these arrangements are going to remain viable. The project's other objective is to examine the lay public's views on a case in which patients’ publicly funded access to an innovative health technology is being delayed until there is sufficient evidence to justify a coverage decision. The case considered is the Ontario (Canada) government's decision to restrict access to positron emission tomography (PET) scans until further evidence becomes available.

Methods: The case was deliberated on by twenty-six members of the Toronto Health Policy Citizens' Council, with a follow-up survey administered to individual council members.

Results: The majority of council members agreed that the approach taken by the government was reasonable and in the best interests of its citizens. The council did express concerns regarding certain aspects of the case, including about the length of time it is taking to obtain further evidence.

Conclusions: Public support for arrangements that limit access to new technologies will likely vary depending on the details of the specific arrangement being proposed. Deliberative public dialogue can be effectively used to identify cases the general public is most likely to support.