Efforts to identify the determinants of environmental policy success have largely been anecdotal and case study based. This article seeks to shift environmental policy analysis on to more analytically rigorous and empirical foundations. Using statistical analysis, we identify a set of factors that drive environmental performance as measured by levels of urban particulates, sulfur dioxide, and energy use per unit of GDP. Although the data are imperfect and causal linkages cannot be definitively established, the statistical analysis presented suggests that environmental results vary not only with income levels as suggested by the environmental Kuznet's curve literature but also with both the sophistication of a nation's regulatory regime and perhaps more notably, its broader economic and social circumstances.

We find significant empirical links between the health structure of the population and the productive system of an economy that is subject to infectious disease, in particular tuberculosis. Consequently, development policy, aimed to improve the level of prosperity, has significant effects on the demographic-epidemiological dynamics of the population. Moreover, infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis, affect the size of the labour force and the productive capacity of the economy. We combine a Lotka-Volterra type system capturing the dynamics of TB epidemics with a Solow-Swan growth model where output is produced from capital and healthy labour. The demographic-epidemological parameters of the Lotka-Volterra type system are functions of GDP per healthy worker. We find significant differences between the most prosperous quartile and the rest of the world. In the former, the disease is eradicated whereas in the lowest three quartiles we predict damped capital and epidemic cycles converging to a population which is about 80 per cent of capacity and of whom about 2 per cent are TB infected. It follows that raising productivity in the lower quartiles is a critical policy aim.

Efforts to identify the determinants of environmental policy success at the national level have largely been anecdotal and case study based. This article seeks to identify empirically the factors that drive environmental performance as measured by levels of urban particulates and sulfur dioxide and energy use per unit of GDP. Although the data are imperfect and causal linkages cannot be definitively established, the statistical analysis presented suggests that environmental results vary not only with income levels as suggested by the environmental Kuznets Curve literature but also with both the sophistication of a nation's regulatory regime and, perhaps more notably, its broader economic and social context. Thus, at every level of development, countries face policy choices that determine environmental quality in important ways. Strong environmental performance appears to be positively correlated with competitiveness, putting into question the presumed trade-off between economic progress and environmental gains. Although preliminary, these results provide evidence that environmental decision making can be made more data driven and analytically rigorous.

This paper analyzes the economy-wide gains obtainable from the allocation of surface irrigation water to its most productive use, and evaluates a decentralized mechanism for achieving this result in a spatially heterogeneous environment. The focus country for the analysis is Morocco. The analysis is based on a general equilibrium model that, in addition to the rest of the economy, captures 82 agricultural production activities, 66 of which are in seven separately identified water districts that span the entire country. The results suggest that a decentralized water trading mechanism could increase agricultural output by 8.3 per cent, affect the rental rates of other agricultural inputs at the national level, including labour, and have economy-wide effects that entail a decline in the cost of living, an increase in aggregate consumption, and expansion of international trade.

The debt-resource-hypothesis suggests that high indebtedness leads to increased natural resource exploitation as well as more unsustainable patterns of resource use. Countries with high debt burdens supposedly increase their extraction of fossil fuels and mineral resources as well as their production of so-called cash crops in order to service their debt obligations. In spite of its popularity, there have been few attempts to systematically test the hypothesis. Existing analyses refer to deforestation only and come to mixed results. This study fills a gap in testing the hypothesis more comprehensively for 23 natural resources and cash crops. It uses first differencing, period-specific time dummies, and a lagged dependent variable to mitigate omitted variable bias. No evidence is found that would support the debt-resource-hypothesis.

This study examines, in a developing-country context, the contribution of community forestry to household income with particular emphasis on group heterogeneity and equity in benefit distribution. The economic analysis of household-level benefits reveals that poorer households are currently benefiting less in absolute terms from community forestry than less poor households. In terms of the contribution of forests to total household income, the study results suggest that the poor are actually less dependent on forests than the rich, a finding that is somewhat contradictory to results from other similar studies. The average ‘poor’ household obtains Nepalese rupees (Nrs) 7,756 gross income from community forest annually, while the more ‘rich’ households obtain on average Nrs 24,466 per year. In terms of the contribution of forests to net household income, the study results seem to suggest an inverted U-shaped relationship – as income increases dependency on forest resources may decline. Econometric analysis suggests that income from the community forests is related to socio-economic attributes and private endowments of households. Households with land and livestock assets and upper caste households gain more from the commons, while better-educated households depend less on forest resources. Female-headed households benefit less from community forests, further aggravating the inequity in distribution of benefits. The study makes a number of recommendations to improve community forestry in Nepal.

This paper measures climate change impacts on Sri Lankan agriculture using the Ricardian method. The model examines the net revenue per hectare of the four most important crops in the country. The limited range of temperature variation allows only a simple test of temperature impacts, but the greater range of precipitation across the country distinguishesmore complex precipitation effects.We then examine the impacts of the climate predictions of five AOGCM models and two simple uniform change scenarios for SriLanka. The impacts of rainfall increases are predicted to be beneficial to the country as a whole in all five AOGCM scenarios, but temperature increases are predicted to be harmful. Nationally, the impacts vary from −11 billion rupees (−20 per cent) to +39 billion rupees (+72 per cent) depending on the climate scenarios. With warming, the already dry regions (the Northern and Eastern provinces), are expected to lose large portions of their current agriculture, but the cooler regions (the central highlands), are predicted to remain the same or increase their output. The paper reconfirms that climate change damages could be large in tropical developing countries, but highly dependent on the actual climate scenario.

This paper investigates factors determining participation and effort in illegal hunting, using cross-section survey data from households in western Serengeti, Tanzania. One purpose of the analysis is to study the impact on illegal hunting of the integrated conservation and development project established in this area, namely the Serengeti Regional Conservation Project (SRCP). The paper also investigates how the pattern of crop production in agriculture, market accessibility and wildlife-induced damage to crops and domestic animals affect illegal hunting. The empirical results suggest that effort in illegal hunting is inversely related to participation in SRCP. The results also show that the likelihood of illegal hunting is a decreasing function of the amount of agricultural land cultivated for maize production. Further, the hunting effort is negatively related to the size of cotton and maize land, as well as wildlife-induced damage to crops and domestic animals.

A diverse body of empirical literature recognizes that investment can influence tenure security, yet this phenomenon has rarely been examined analytically. This paper develops a theoretical model that demonstrates explicitly conditions under which the probability of eviction is endogenous to investment undertaken on illegally encroached land. By accommodating explicitly the government's objective function and its ability to commit credibly to an eviction policy, the model reveals why both those farmers who under-invest, and those who raise their investment levels to improve tenure security, may be behaving rationally. Indeed, both types of behaviour are accommodated within a single model.

Projects in the forestry sector, and land-use change and forestry projects more generally, have the potential to help mitigate global warming by acting as sinks for greenhouse gasses, particularly CO2. However, concerns have been expressed that participation in carbon-sink projects may be constrained by high costs. This problem may be particularly severe for projects involving smallholders in developing countries. Of particular concern are the transaction costs incurred in developing projects, measuring, certifying, and selling the carbon-sequestration services generated by such projects. This paper addresses these issues by reviewing the implications of transaction and abatement costs in carbon-sequestration projects. An approach to estimating abatement costs is demonstrated through four case studies of agroforestry systems located in Sumatra, Indonesia. A typology of transaction costs is presented and related to existing pilot projects. The paper concludes with recommendations to reduce the disadvantages that smallholders may face in capturing the opportunities offered by carbon markets.

Against the backdrop of a community-based fishery management institution called kadakkodi, this paper addresses the question of how institutions evolve, innovate, or disintegrate. It explains how institutional evolution is determined by factors like relative resource endowment, technology, cultural endowment, and inherited institutional structures. The strength of such informal institutions in facilitating effective resource management admitted, the paper argues that in the wake of increasing resource-related, technological, cultural and institutional heterogeneities, they may fail to perform and hence are no panacea to the problems of resource management. Such predicaments may call for complementary formal institutions whose supply, however, would depend on the cost of collective action.

As China advances its overall program of economic development, many Chinese cities consistently suffer from unhealthy levels of air pollution. One of the groups most affected is children. This paper provides some quantification regarding the extent of various morbidity costs upon children in portions of urban China. Using China-based health-effects and valuation studies, the authors project, and value in dollar figures, the number of averted cases of childhood colds, bronchitis, asthma, and respiratory-related hospital visits resulting from a lowering of air pollution levels. The results indicate that these child morbidity benefits may be substantial, with a mid-range value of nearly $3.5 billion over the period 2002–2011.

The interrelationships between environmental regulations and firm location are essential features of economic development. This paper examines the optimal location of a competitive firm in response to environmental costs imposed by the abatement investment and taxes when the cost of the environmental regulation varies spatially under uncertainty. It contributes to the literature by incorporating the spatial setting into a risk-averse firm's location decision in the presence of environmental regulation uncertainty. An augmented cost of the abatement, input tax, or emission tax causes the risk-averse firm to locate closer to the output market. Uncertainty about environmental regulations also leads a risk-averse firm to locate closer to the output market. Policy implications of the results are discussed. The results have implications for the design and implementation of environmental and other development-related policies, environment–development debate, and trade–environment debate.

Biodiversity ‘hotspot’ areas, which are characterized by concentrations of endemic species and severe anthropogenic loss of natural habitat, might be thought to present steep opportunity costs for maintaining forest cover against pressures of agricultural conversion. We examine this proposition for the southern part of the state of Bahia, a center of endemism within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, which has less than 8 per cent of its original primary forest cover remaining. Using data from a survey of property values, we relate land price to land characteristics, including land cover, soil quality, slope, climate, and road proximity. We find median land values of R$725/hectare, or about US$400/hectare at recently prevailing exchange rates. Remaining land under forest has a market value 70 per cent below comparable cleared land.

Poorer countries are generally believed to be more vulnerable to climate change than richer countries because poorer countries are more exposed and have less adaptive capacity. This suggests that, in principle, there are two ways of reducing vulnerability to climate change: economic growth and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Using a complex climate change impact model, in which development is an important determinant of vulnerability, the hypothesis is tested whether development aid is more effective in reducing impacts than is emission abatement. The hypothesis is barely rejected for Asia but strongly accepted for Latin America and, particularly, Africa. The explanation for the difference is that development (aid) reduces vulnerabilities in some sectors (infectious diseases, water resources, agriculture) but increases vulnerabilities in others (cardiovascular diseases, energy consumption). However, climate change impacts are much higher in Latin America and Africa than in Asia, so that money spent on emission reduction for the sake of avoiding impacts in developing countries is better spent on vulnerability reduction in those countries. His last big project in a long career, Jan Feenstra managed the Netherlands Climate Change Assistance Programme through which the Dutch Government sponsors climate change research in developing countries. He hated how climate change detracted from what he considered to be the real issues. This paper is dedicated to his memory.