Southeast Asia's security outlook for 2009–2010 is not altogether positive. Instability in the domestic politics of several Southeast Asian states will persist, and the possibility of violence on the streets of some regional capitals cannot be ruled out. Hardship amongst ordinary people as a result of the global economic crisis may exacerbate existing political tensions while generating new ones.

In Thailand clashes between security forces and anti-government demonstrators had already led to one death in October 2008. Tension between the government of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat and the opposition led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) could lead to a new intervention in politics by the army in 2009. However, another coup will not resolve deep-seated antagonism between the populist forces aligned with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and represented by Somchai's government and the agglomeration of liberal, middle-class elite and royalist interests in the PAD. In sum, Thailand's domestic disarray will persist through 2009.

In Malaysia, the parliamentary opposition has threatened a vote of no-confidence in the government as soon as it calculates that it has sufficient support through defections from the governing coalition. Such a vote might bring down the government, necessitating a transfer of power to the Pakatan Rakyat coalition led by Anwar Ibrahim. However, the Barisan Nasional government could try to retain power by declaring a State of Emergency pending new elections. Other possibilities include more extensive use of the Internal Security Act to detain opposition figures and accelerated moves to try Anwar on sodomy charges. Assuming the government survives, however, Abdullah Badawi's resignation as UMNO President and Prime Minister in March 2009, and his anticipated replacement by Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, could reduce political tensions temporarily. One way or another, though, Malaysia's protracted political crisis will continue. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the military regime in Myanmar will remain on unhappy terms with the people of the country, and economic problems may fuel new eruptions of popular discontent.