Actually, Rumsfeld was talking about different types of risk and uncertainty; the former being a process of assigning probabilities and the latter an environment in which no probabilities can be assigned. At present, Brexit is in the realm between “unknown unknowns” and “known unknowns” in respect of its possible outcomes. Statements by the UK prime minister to the effect that the UK will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that triggers the start of the two-year exit process in early 2017 notwithstanding, it is unclear what the outcomes will be or the time it will take to complete. Of the alternative trade scenarios, that may configure post-Brexit, most alternatives to EU membership appear difficult and challenging for the UK economy and its constituent regions and devolved nations.

In respect of the duration of these changes, one is reminded of former Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai’s comment on the impact of the French Revolution that “it was too early to tell”. The great unravelling of the global economy following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) having not yet abated, in combination with the great uncoupling of Brexit, compounds these uncertainties. The multi-dimensional and multi-scalar nature of the great uncoupling means that its impact varies across the UK and the rest of the EU. In the case of the UK, the challenges are at their most sharp and complex for Northern Ireland and its economy. The purpose of this chapter is to analyse the impact of Brexit on the Northern Ireland economy and the progress of its development as an internationally focused region.

This chapter examines the recent performance of the Northern Ireland economy, its relative performance to the UK and in comparison to that of the Republic of Ireland (ROI).