Telecommunications devices have become ubiquitous features of the postmodern industrial society, and dependence on the ability to process and transmit information continues to grow rapidly. Further, the telecommunications industry is currently undergoing rapid and far-reaching technological change. Understanding the forces that shape the rate and direction of inventive activity in telecommunications, then, is compelling from the point of view of the historian of technology as well as the policymaker. Unfortunately, the difficulties in the prediction of innovations are quite daunting. Even if it were possible to make authoritative predictions about the future path of technological change, which it is not, the question of the ultimate social and economic impact of these changes is another matter entirely.

When a product is already a commercial success, its continued commercial success is dependent upon economic and social variables, and perhaps upon other environmental variables as well. For example, fifteen years ago, at least one authoritative source predicted a “spectacular boom” in Citizens' Band (CB) radios. In fact, the market grew rapidly for such radios, but then suddenly and unexpectedly fizzled. Clearly, we need to recognize, at the outset, that technical success is only a necessary and not a sufficient condition for commercial success. Furthermore, it is hazardous to extrapolate from early commercial successes to future growth and success. Having laid out these cautionary notes, and as long as expectations are not set unrealistically high, there is a great deal of significance that can be said about the forces that have shaped technological change in the telecommunications industry.