Book contents
- Evidence-Based Diagnosis
- Evidence-Based Diagnosis
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1 Introduction
- Chapter 2 Dichotomous Tests
- Chapter 3 Multilevel and Continuous Tests
- Chapter 4 Critical Appraisal of Studies of Diagnostic Test Accuracy
- Chapter 5 Reliability and Measurement Error
- Chapter 6 Risk Predictions
- Chapter 7 Multiple Tests and Multivariable Risk Models
- Chapter 8 Quantifying Treatment Effects Using Randomized Trials
- Chapter 9 Alternatives to Randomized Trials for Estimating Treatment Effects
- Chapter 10 Screening Tests
- Chapter 11 Understanding P-Values and Confidence Intervals
- Chapter 12 Challenges for Evidence-Based Diagnosis
- Answers to Problems
- Index
- References
Chapter 6 - Risk Predictions
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 02 May 2020
- Evidence-Based Diagnosis
- Evidence-Based Diagnosis
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1 Introduction
- Chapter 2 Dichotomous Tests
- Chapter 3 Multilevel and Continuous Tests
- Chapter 4 Critical Appraisal of Studies of Diagnostic Test Accuracy
- Chapter 5 Reliability and Measurement Error
- Chapter 6 Risk Predictions
- Chapter 7 Multiple Tests and Multivariable Risk Models
- Chapter 8 Quantifying Treatment Effects Using Randomized Trials
- Chapter 9 Alternatives to Randomized Trials for Estimating Treatment Effects
- Chapter 10 Screening Tests
- Chapter 11 Understanding P-Values and Confidence Intervals
- Chapter 12 Challenges for Evidence-Based Diagnosis
- Answers to Problems
- Index
- References
Summary
In previous chapters, we discussed issues affecting evaluation and use of diagnostic tests: how to assess test reliability and accuracy, how to combine the results of tests with prior information to estimate disease probability, and how a test’s value depends on the decision it will guide and the relative cost of errors. In this chapter, we move from diagnosing prevalent disease to predicting incident outcomes. We will discuss the difference between diagnostic tests and risk predictions and then focus on evaluating predictions, specifically covering calibration, discrimination, net benefit calculations, and decision curves.
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- Evidence-Based DiagnosisAn Introduction to Clinical Epidemiology, pp. 144 - 174Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2020