Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Dedication
- Contents
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- 1 Classical probabilities, 1660–1840
- 2 Statistical probabilities, 1820–1900
- 3 The inference experts
- 4 Chance and life: controversies in modern biology
- 5 The probabilistic revolution in physics
- 6 Statistics of the mind
- 7 Numbers rule the world
- 8 The implications of chance
- References
- Name index
- Subject index
3 - The inference experts
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 December 2013
- Frontmatter
- Dedication
- Contents
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- 1 Classical probabilities, 1660–1840
- 2 Statistical probabilities, 1820–1900
- 3 The inference experts
- 4 Chance and life: controversies in modern biology
- 5 The probabilistic revolution in physics
- 6 Statistics of the mind
- 7 Numbers rule the world
- 8 The implications of chance
- References
- Name index
- Subject index
Summary
This … overflow of statistical techniques from the quiet backwaters of theoretical methodology … into the working parts of going concerns of the largest size, suggests that hidden causes have been at work …, preparing men's minds, and shaping the institutions through which they work …
Ronald A. Fisher (1954)IN WANT OF A “SYSTEM OF MEAN RESULTS”
The British agriculturist James F. W. Johnston wrote in 1849: “As yet we do not possess any … system of mean results, though few things would at present do more to clear up our ideas as to the precise influence of this or that substance on the growth of plants” (Johnston, 1849, p. 59). Johnston came from a long tradition of writers who had discussed and developed ideas on how experiments in agriculture should be performed and their results interpreted (Cochran, 1976). The experiments addressed practical questions. Which of these fertilizers is better? What crop rotation system works best for this region? What strain of potatoes gives the highest dry yield? These could be matters of great economic importance for the individual farmer, or the landed gentry, or the prosperity of the whole nation. They were too serious to be left to the haphazard initiative of private individuals, and conclusive findings were only to be expected when the experiences of many were combined and compared. The agricultural societies that began to be founded in the eighteenth century sometimes gave prizes for the best conducted and best reported agricultural experiments.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- The Empire of ChanceHow Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life, pp. 70 - 122Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1989