Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Dedication
- Contents
- List of Tables
- List of Figures
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Introduction
- 2 A Theory of Regime Survival and Fall
- 3 Competitive Regimes and Authoritarianism in Latin America
- 4 Regime Survival and Fall
- 5 From Multiple Breakdowns to Stabilization of Democracy: Argentina
- 6 From Persistent Authoritarianism to a Durable Democracy: El Salvador
- 7 International Actors, International Influences, and Regime Outcomes
- 8 Political Regimes after the Third Wave
- 9 Rethinking Theories of Democratization in Latin America and Beyond
- Appendix 3.1 Coding Rules for Political Regimes
- Appendix 3.2 Coding U.S. Foreign Policy toward Democracy in Latin America
- Appendix 4.1 Long-Run Equilibrium for the Proportion of Competitive Regimes
- Appendix 5.1 Qualitative Comparative Analysis
- Appendix 6.1 Coding of Salvadoran Actors, 1979–2010
- Bibliography
- Index
2 - A Theory of Regime Survival and Fall
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2014
- Frontmatter
- Dedication
- Contents
- List of Tables
- List of Figures
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Introduction
- 2 A Theory of Regime Survival and Fall
- 3 Competitive Regimes and Authoritarianism in Latin America
- 4 Regime Survival and Fall
- 5 From Multiple Breakdowns to Stabilization of Democracy: Argentina
- 6 From Persistent Authoritarianism to a Durable Democracy: El Salvador
- 7 International Actors, International Influences, and Regime Outcomes
- 8 Political Regimes after the Third Wave
- 9 Rethinking Theories of Democratization in Latin America and Beyond
- Appendix 3.1 Coding Rules for Political Regimes
- Appendix 3.2 Coding U.S. Foreign Policy toward Democracy in Latin America
- Appendix 4.1 Long-Run Equilibrium for the Proportion of Competitive Regimes
- Appendix 5.1 Qualitative Comparative Analysis
- Appendix 6.1 Coding of Salvadoran Actors, 1979–2010
- Bibliography
- Index
Summary
This chapter develops our theoretical approach to understanding regime change and survival. Our perspective is situated between structural and contingent action or agency approaches to studying political regimes. We emphasize the moderate or radical nature of actors’ policy preferences, their value preferences about political regimes, and the impact of international influences and actors.
Our theory focuses on political organizations, organized movements, and presidents as the most powerful actors. We situate the domestic regime game within an international context. We link regime outcomes (survival and failure) with micro-conditions (the normative attitudes and policy preferences of concrete political actors). Our approach explicitly emphasizes political processes operating in the medium term. Although we do not deny the role of long-term historical factors, specific political actors are responsible for the actions that lead to regime change or survival.
MAKING THEORY USEFUL: ASSUMPTIONS
In our view, theories advance social science only if (1) their assumptions are realistic and (2) they can generate testable hypotheses that are supported by the bulk of the empirical evidence. Theory generated from unrealistic assumptions easily generates unrealistic hypotheses and reaches distorted conclusions. Abstruse theory that does not guide empirical work or theory that is not supported by the evidence likewise fails to adequately explain regime outcomes. On both accounts, existing structural and cultural theories of political regimes have shortcomings. On both accounts, we believe our theory holds up.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin AmericaEmergence, Survival, and Fall, pp. 29 - 62Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2014