EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

For stakeholders in Myanmar, the 2012 by-elections revealed the potential of the National League for Democracy (NLD) to dominate, once again, winner-take-all elections in Myanmar that are held under credible electoral conditions. Looking towards the 2015 general election, when 75 percent of parliament's seats should be contested, the NLD's landslide victory in 2012 significantly raises the political stakes.

Political actors in Myanmar are now looking ahead to 2015 to assess their prospects under the prevailing electoral system. Assuming the NLD can maintain its levels of popularity, it is possible the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system will deliver the NLD a single-party parliamentary majority in 2015, even if the 25 percent of seats set aside for the military are taken into account. As other analysts have observed, “the ruling USDP [Union Solidarity and Development Party] won only one seat in the by-election even though it garnered [close to] 30 per cent of the vote, and leaders are said to be concerned that the party could be wiped out by an NLD landslide in the elections in 2015 unless proportional representation is introduced” (Bower and others 2012). In this light, the tendency of Myanmar's FPTP system to amplify wins and losses can also be seen as a political liability, potentially undermining the fragile political calculus that since 2011 has given the reformers licence to shape Myanmar's politics positively. The NLD may, in fact, have much to gain by changing the electoral system to one that increases the likelihood that powerful political forces in the transition process still feel represented in the future parliament. The debate about electoral systems takes on another important dimension with the legitimate concerns of ethnic minorities about their representation in Myanmar's new political system. An FPTP system with a resurgent NLD poses significant challenges for ethnic minority parties. While the 2012 by-elections included few constituencies in the ethnic states, in those constituencies where ethnic minority parties did compete they only gained political ground in one seat, winning by a narrow margin over the NLD. The 2015 elections are already looming, and both the NLD and USDP are seeking to lead the nation down a path towards peace and national reconciliation. In this context it will be increasingly difficult for the NLD and USDP to ignore the calls for political accommodation by the ethnic minority parties.