The editing of the ‘Reconstruction in Europe’ supplements, culminating in the publication in December 1923 of A Tract on Monetary Reform, expanded Keynes's writing interests beyond their previous focus on reparations and war debts to the broader field of the international monetary system. It was at this time, during 1922 and 1923, that he made his most concerted efforts for a rational treatment of Germany—officially, as an expert adviser on the state of the mark, and unofficially, as a speaker and writer; publicly, in the columns of the Nation, and privately, in attempts to influence both British and German acquaintances in high places.

Linked with the reparations problem was the question of the health of the German mark, which dropped disastrously in value with every Allied endeavour to enforce payment for war damages. Early in 1921 Keynes predicted that once actual reparation payments started, the mark would collapse. The prediction occurred at the end of an explanatory article on the foreign exchanges which cautioned speculative holders of marks who were gambling on the eventual prosperity of Germany.

Keynes produced the article in February in response to a request by La Nación, Buenos Aires, for him to write on any subject that he pleased. In sending the manuscript to his American publisher, Alfred Harcourt, for placing in the American press, he remarked (6 February 1921) that it was ‘not an article to which I attach any particular importance—decidedly, indeed, a second-grade article…’. […]