India's rise as a great power could face more political and security challenges than is commonly appreciated. The South Asian region, with nuclear arsenals, is marked by deep seated inter-state enmities, political instability, religious extremism and terrorism. Indeed if terrorist groups were to acquire weapons of mass destruction India could be a prime target. Lately South Asia is also becoming an arena of sharper big power rivalry.

To be a great power on the Asian scene India needs to free itself from its South Asian quagmire. This requires, firstly, breakthroughs in its difficult relations with neighbours, especially Pakistan. Secondly, it also requires domestic peace and stability in South Asian countries. But, alas, both still appear out of reach. The momentum of the peace process with Pakistan seems to be petering out and growing instability in countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh has adverse implications for India's security.

The rising power of China is being increasingly felt in South Asia. Beijing accords much strategic significance to South Asia because of its energy lifelines through the Indian Ocean, and the perceived need to prevent India from joining any anti-China coalition sponsored by the United States.

Recently Beijing had New Delhi in a tizzy by seeking observer status in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Some of India's neighbours — more interested in using SAARC to contain India than to cooperate with it — support this move.

Raja Mohan, a prominent Indian strategic affairs analyst, commented as follows on the recent SAARC summit in Dhaka where the issue of China's observer status came up: “As curtains came down today in Dhaka on the 13th SAARC summit, the event will be remembered only for the extraordinary demonstration of China's new political clout in the subcontinent. It was a long time coming. But when it did in Dhaka over the weekend China's diplomatic big bang

left in tatters India's long standing claim of an exclusive sphere of influence in the sub-continent”.

This could be China's riposte to India's growing strategic links with the US. It serves as a pointed reminder to India of its vulnerabilities in South Asia and how China could be spoiler, if need be, by exploiting them.