Self-harm is a significant public health issue, and both our understanding and ability to predict adverse outcomes are currently inadequate. The current study explores how preventative efforts could be aided through short-term prediction and modelling of risk factors for self-harm.

Patients (72% female, Mage = 40.3 years) within an inpatient psychiatric facility self-reported their psychological distress, interpersonal circumstances, and wish to live and die on a daily basis during 3690 unique admissions. Hierarchical logistic regressions assessed whether daily changes in self-report and history of self-harm could predict self-harm, with machine learning used to train and test the model. To assess interrelationships between predictors, network and cross-lagged panel models were performed.

Increases in a wish to die (β = 1.34) and psychological distress (β = 1.07) on a daily basis were associated with increased rates of self-harm, while a wish to die on the day prior [odds ratio (OR) 3.02] and a history of self-harm (OR 3.02) was also associated with self-harm. The model detected 77.7% of self-harm incidents (positive predictive value = 26.6%, specificity = 79.1%). Psychological distress, wish to live and die, and interpersonal factors were reciprocally related over the prior day.

Short-term fluctuations in self-reported mental health may provide an indication of when an individual is at-risk of self-harm. Routine monitoring may provide useful feedback to clinical staff to reduce risk of self-harm. Modifiable risk factors identified in the current study may be targeted during interventions to minimise risk of self-harm.

A wish to die is common in older persons and is associated with increased mortality. Several risk factors have been identified, but the association between religiousness and a wish to die in older adults has been underexplored, and the association between death attitudes and the presence of a wish to die has not been investigated yet. The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between religiousness and death attitudes on the one hand and wish to die on the other hand, adjusting for clinical factors such as the presence of depression or somatic disorder.

The sample comprised 113 older inpatients (from a psychiatric and somatic ward) with a mean age of 74 years. Psychiatric diagnoses were assessed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, and logistic regression analyses estimated the unique contribution of religiousness and death attitudes to the wish to die, controlling for socio-demographic variables, depressive disorder, and somatic symptoms.

Both religiousness and death attitudes were associated with a wish to die in univariate models. Adding these variables in a multivariate logistic hierarchical model, death attitudes remained significant predictors but religiousness did not; 55% of the pseudovariance of the wish to die was explained by these variables, with an effective size of 0.89. Major depressive episode, somatic symptoms, Fear of Death, and Escape Acceptance were the most important predictors of the wish to die.

This study suggests that how older adults perceive death partly determines whether they have a wish to die. There may be a clinical, patient-oriented benefit in discussing with older patients about how they perceive death, as this can play a role in the early detection (and prevention) of death or suicide ideation and associated behaviors in older adults.