Tropical Andean glaciers are highly sensitive to climate change and are impacted by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, glaciological data are scarce, meaning that there are substantial knowledge gaps in the response of Andean glaciers to future anthropogenic and ENSO forcing and these are crucial to address, as glaciers represent a key water source for downstream populations and ecosystems. Here we integrated data from glaciological field studies, remote sensing, statistical analysis and glacier modelling to analyse the response of two Andean glaciers (Zongo and Shallap) to ENSO and their potential sensitivity to a range of climate forcing scenarios. Both glaciers retreated and experienced increasingly negative mass balance between the 1990s and the 2010s and responded strongly and rapidly to contemporary ENSO forcing, although this relationship evolved over time. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that Shallap and Zongo are highly sensitive to ENSO forcing scenarios and the combination of ENSO and climate warming can cause rapid ice loss under the most extreme scenarios. Results also demonstrate the strong sensitivity of both glaciers to changes in the equilibrium line altitude, whereby rapid ice loss occurred when melt extended into present-day accumulation areas.

Ice cliffs are features along ice sheet margins, along tropical mountain glaciers, at termini of mountain glaciers and on debris-covered glacier tongues, that have received scattered attention in literature. They cover small relative areas of glacier or margin surface respectively, but have been involved in two apparent anomalies. On the one hand, they have been identified as potential hotspots of extreme melt rates on debris-covered tongues contributing to their relatively rapid ablation, compared to the surrounding glacier surface. On the other hand, they appear where the ice margin is stable (or temporarily advancing) even under conditions of negative mass balance. In this manuscript, we recapitulate why ice cliffs remain interesting features to investigate and what we know about them so far. We conclude by suggesting to further investigate their genesis and variable morphology and their potential as windows into past climates and processes.

Extending the record of glacier area changes into the past improves our understanding of climate change impacts. Although analogue maps showing historic glacier extents are abundant, digital outlines from before the satellite era are sparse as the digitisation of moraines and trimlines on freely available satellite images is challenging. With the now available very high-resolution images provided by Web Map Services (WMS), new doors are open for the precise digitisation. Here, we used the ESRI WMS to digitise Little Ice Age (LIA) glacier extents and present area changes since the LIA in four selected regions along with a detailed uncertainty analysis. We used modern glacier outlines as a starting point and additionally consulted Sentinel-2 images, the ArcticDEM and historic maps for interpretation. Dating records from the literature allowed calculating area change rates. In total, 493 LIA glaciers (4640 km2, now 891 ice bodies with 3590 km2) were digitised, yielding relative area changes of −20% (−0.14% a−1), −15% (−0.10% a−1), −26% (−0.16% a−1) and −61% (−0.19% a−1) for Alaska, Baffin Island, Novaya Zemlya and the tropics, respectively. The ESRI WMS images are a great asset to precisely map moraines and trimlines, but information about the timing of the related extents requires further sources.

Climate change has led to a significant shrinkage of glaciers in the Tropical Andes during the last decades. Recent multi-temporal quantifications of ice mass loss at mountain range to regional scale are missing. However, this is fundamental information for future water resource planning and glacier change projections. In this study, we measure temporally consistent glacier area changes and geodetic mass balances throughout the Bolivian Cordillera Real and Tres Cruces based on multi-sensor remote-sensing data. By analyzing multi-spectral satellite images and interferometric SAR data, a glacier recession of 81 ± 18 km2 (29%; 5.1 ± 1.1 km2 a−1), a geodetic mass balance of −403 ± 78 kg m−2 a−1 and a total ice mass loss of 1.8 ± 0.5 Gt is derived for 2000–2016. In the period 2013–2016, ice mass loss was 21% above the average rate. A retreat rate of 15 ± 5 km2 a−1 and a mass budget of −487 ± 349 kg m−2 a−1 are found in this more recent period. These higher change rates can be attributed to the strong El Niño event in 2015/16. The analyses of individual glacier changes and topographic variables confirmed the dependency of the mass budget and glacier recession on glacier aspect and median elevation.

Accurate quantification of rates of glacier mass loss is critical for managing water resources and for assessing hazards at ice-clad volcanoes, especially in arid regions like southern Peru. In these regions, glacier and snow melt are crucial dry season water resources. In order to verify previously reported rates of ice area decline at Nevado Coropuna in Peru, which are anomalously rapid for tropical glaciers, we measured changes in ice cap area using 259 Landsat images acquired from 1980 to 2014. We find that Coropuna Ice Cap is presently the most extensive ice mass in the tropics, with an area of 44.1 km2, and has been shrinking at an average area loss rate of 0.409 km2 a−1 (~0.71% a−1) since 1980. Our estimated rate of change is considerably lower than previous studies (1.4 km2 a−1 or ~2.43% a−1), but is consistent with other tropical regions, such as the Cordillera Blanca located ~850 km to the NW (~0.68% a−1). Thus, if glacier recession continues at its present rate, our results suggest that Coropuna Ice Cap will likely continue to contribute to water supply for agricultural and domestic uses until ~2120, which is nearly 100 years longer than previously predicted.

Tropical glaciers constitute an important source of water for downstream populations. However, our understanding of glacial melt processes is still limited. One observed process that has not yet been quantified for tropical glaciers is the enhanced melt caused by the longwave emission transfer. Here, we use high-resolution surface temperatures obtained from the thermal infrared imagery of the Cuchillacocha Glacier, in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru in June 2014 to calculate a margin longwave flux. This longwave flux, reaching the glacier margin from the adjacent exposed rock, varies between 81 and 120 W m−2 daily. This flux is incorporated into a physically-based melt model to assess the net radiation budget at the modeled glacier margin. The simulation results show an increase in the energy available for melt by an average of 106 W m−2 during the day when compared with the simulation where the LWmargin flux is not accounted for. This value represents an increase in ablation of ~1.7 m at the glacier margin for the duration of the dry season. This study suggests that including the quantification of the glacier margin longwave flux in physically-based melt models results in an improved assessment of tropical glacier energy budget and meltwater generation.

The supply of glacier water to La Paz city, Bolivia, between 1963 and 2006 was assessed at annual and seasonal timescales based on the mass-balance quantification of 70 glaciers located within the drainage basins of La Paz. Glaciers contributed ∼15% of water resources at an annual scale (14% in the wet season, 27% in the dry season). Uncertainties in our estimation are related to the assumed constant precipitation (∼0.5% for ice-free areas and up to 6.5% for glaciated areas), the constant runoff coefficient (∼1%), the surface areas of the glaciers and catchments (∼5%) and the mean mass-balance uncertainty of the 21 glaciers used to obtain the mass balance of the 70 glaciers (12% of the total discharge). Despite the loss of 50% of the glacierized area during the study period, runoff at La Paz did not change significantly, showing that increase in ice melt rates compensated for reduction in the surface area of the glaciers. In the future, assuming complete disappearance of the glaciers and no change in precipitation, runoff should diminish by ∼12% at an annual scale, 9% during the wet season and 24% during the dry season.

Bolivian glaciers are an essential source of fresh water for the Altiplano, and any changes they may undergo in the near future due to ongoing climate change are of particular concern. Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia, located near the administrative capital La Paz, has been extensively monitored by the GLACIOCLIM observatory in the last two decades. Here we model the glacier dynamics using the 3-D full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice. The model was calibrated and validated over a recent period (1997–2010) using four independent datasets: available observations of surface velocities and surface mass balance were used for calibration, and changes in surface elevation and retreat of the glacier front were used for validation. Over the validation period, model outputs are in good agreement with observations (differences less than a small percentage). The future surface mass balance is assumed to depend on the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and temperature changes through the sensitivity of ELA to temperature. The model was then forced for the 21st century using temperature changes projected by nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here we give results for three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The intermediate scenario RCP6.0 led to 69 ± 7% volume loss by 2100, while the two extreme scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, led to 40 ± 7% and 89 ± 4% loss of volume, respectively.

The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) is a globally complete collection of digital outlines of glaciers, excluding the ice sheets, developed to meet the needs of the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for estimates of past and future mass balance. The RGI was created with limited resources in a short period. Priority was given to completeness of coverage, but a limited, uniform set of attributes is attached to each of the ~198 000 glaciers in its latest version, 3.2. Satellite imagery from 1999–2010 provided most of the outlines. Their total extent is estimated as 726 800 ± 34 000 km2. The uncertainty, about ±5%, is derived from careful single-glacier and basin-scale uncertainty estimates and comparisons with inventories that were not sources for the RGI. The main contributors to uncertainty are probably misinterpretation of seasonal snow cover and debris cover. These errors appear not to be normally distributed, and quantifying them reliably is an unsolved problem. Combined with digital elevation models, the RGI glacier outlines yield hypsometries that can be combined with atmospheric data or model outputs for analysis of the impacts of climatic change on glaciers. The RGI has already proved its value in the generation of significantly improved aggregate estimates of glacier mass changes and total volume, and thus actual and potential contributions to sea-level rise.