Several recent studies conclude that an increase in the pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 cannot be ruled out. However, it should be noted that SARS-CoV-2 is a ‘direct’ respiratory virus – meaning it is usually spread by the respiratory route but does not routinely pass through the lymphatics like measles and smallpox. Providing its tropism does not change, it will be unique if its pathogenicity does not decrease until it becomes similar to common cold viruses. Ewald noted in the 1980s that respiratory viruses may evolve mildness because their spread benefits from the mobility of their hosts. This review examines factors that usually lower respiratory viruses’ severity, including heat sensitivity (which limits replication in the warmer lungs) and changes to the virus’s surface proteins. Other factors may, however, increase pathogenicity, such as replication in the lymphatic system and spreading via solid surfaces or faecal matter. Furthermore, human activities and political events could increase the harmfulness of SARS-CoV-2, including the following: large-scale testing, especially when the results are delayed; transmission in settings where people are close together and not free to move around; poor hygiene facilities; and social, political, or cultural influences that encourage sick individuals to remain active, including crises such as wars. If we can avoid these eventualities, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to evolve to be milder, although the timescale is uncertain. Observations of influenza-like pandemics suggest it may take around two decades for COVID-19 to become as mild as seasonal colds.

Polar terrestrial invertebrates are suggested as being vulnerable to temperature change relative to lower latitude species, and hence possibly also to climate warming. Previous studies have shown Antarctic and Arctic Collembola and Acari to possess good heat tolerance and survive temperature exposures above 30 °C. To test this feature further, the heat tolerance and physiological plasticity of heat stress were explored in the Arctic collembolan, Megaphorura arctica, from Svalbard and the Antarctic midge, Eretmoptera murphyi, from Signy Island. The data obtained demonstrate considerable heat tolerance in both species, with upper lethal temperatures ≥35 °C (1 h exposures), and tolerance of exposure to 10 and 15 °C exceeding 56 days. This tolerance is far beyond that required in their current environment. Average microhabitat temperatures in August 2011 ranged between 5.1 and 8.1 °C, and rarely rose above 10 °C, in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. Summer soil microhabitat temperatures on Signy Island have previously been shown to range between 0 and 10 °C. There was also evidence to suggest that E. murphyi can recover from high-temperature exposure and that M. arctica is capable of rapid heat hardening. M. arctica and E. murphyi therefore have the physiological capacity to tolerate current environmental conditions, as well as future warming. If the features they express are characteristically more general, such polar terrestrial invertebrates will likely fare well under climate warming scenarios.

This paper examines the association of cardiovascular reactivity with thermal thresholds (detection and unpleasantness). Heart period (HP), systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure of 42 health young males were recorded during a cardiovascular reactivity task (a videogame based upon Sidman's avoidance paradigm). Thermal sensitivity, assessing detection and unpleasantness thresholds with radiant heat in the forearm was also estimated for participants. Participants with differential scores in the cardiovascular variables from base line to task ≥ P65 were considered as reactors and those how have differential scores ≤ P35 were considered as non-reactors. Significant differences were observed between groups in the unpleasantness thresholds in blood pressure (BP) but not in HP. Reactors exhibited significant higher unpleasantness thresholds than non-reactors. No significant differences were obtained in detection thresholds between groups.