Given that nearly half of the Indian labor force is employed in agriculture, extreme weather events may harm most of the country’s population. By exploiting annual variation within Indian districts, I test whether greater temperature fluctuations significantly decrease the output value of 13 major crops. I find that a 1°C deviation above the annual mean temperature leads to a 21.3 percentage point decline in output value for a given year, indicating substantial losses from large fluctuations in temperature. I also find evidence that proportion of crop area irrigated and fertilizer usage mitigates the negative impacts of temperature shocks.

Temperature profoundly influences the physiology and life history characteristics of organisms, particularly in terms of body size. Because so many critical parameters scale with body mass, long-term temperature fluctuations can have dramatic impacts. We examined the response of a small mammalian herbivore, the bushy-tailed woodrat ( Neotoma cinerea), to temperature change from 20,000 yr B.P. to present, at five sites within the Colorado Plateau. Our investigations focused on the relationship between temperature, plant composition and abundance, and woodrat size. Body size was estimated by measuring fossil fecal pellets, a technique validated in earlier work. We found significant and highly covariable patterns in body mass over the five locations, suggesting that responses to temperature fluctuations during the late Quaternary have been very similar. Although woodrat mass and the occurrence of several plant species in the fossil record weresignificantly correlated, in virtually all instances changes in woodrat size preceded changes in vegetational composition. These results may be due to the greater sensitivity of woodrats to temperature, or to the shorter generation times of woodrats as compared to most plants. An alternative hypothesis is that winter temperatures increased before summer ones. Woodrats are highly sensitive to warmer winters, whereas little response would be expected from forest/woodland plants growing at their lower limits. Our work suggests that woodrat size is a precise paleothermometer, yielding information about temperature variation over relatively short-term temporal and regional scales.

Field observations were carried out on a natural outbreak of a nuclear polyhedrosis virus of the armyworm Spodoptera exempta. Records were kept in four study sites with varying larval density, vegetation cover, and climatic conditions. Biotic factors influencing disease outbreaks were also noted. Initial mortality was recorded 11 days after larval outbreak, and the highest mortality occurred 10 days later. The epizootic was highest in sites of high larval density, wide fluctuations of daily temperatures (range 16.2°C), and high relative humidity. Rainfall was recorded in all disease outbreak sites. An acridid Acrotylus patruelis fed on larval cadavers in the field. Polyhedral inclusion bodies recovered from the gut of A. patruelis caused disease when fed to third instar S. exempta larvae in the laboratory. Predation on larvae by the pied crow Corvus albus in some observation sites reduced larval numbers, and may have prevented NPV from rising to epizootic levels in such areas. In sites of high polyhedrosis incidence, the disease led to larval population collapse in 3 weeks following disease outbreak.