The development of multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) has allowed scholars to more accurately estimate subnational public opinion using national polls. However, MRP generally recovers less accurate estimates from polls whose respondents are selected using cluster sampling – also called area-probability sampling. This is in part because cluster-sampled polls rely on a complex form of random sampling focused on national representativeness that may result in small or unrepresentative subsamples in subnational geographies. This has limited MRP’s usefulness in subnational opinion estimation in several contexts, including historical polls in the US, where cluster-sampling was common into the 1980s, and large academic studies in many countries today. In this paper, I propose two approaches to improve estimation from MRP with cluster-sampled polls. The first is pooling data from multiple surveys to produce a larger sample of clusters. The second is clustered MRP (CMRP), which extends MRP by modeling opinion using the geographic information included in a survey’s cluster-sampling procedure. Using simulations, I show that both methods improve upon traditional MRP, and I validate them using historical polls in the US

What are the relative contributions of stereotypes about the race and deservingness of welfare recipients to Americans’ opinions on welfare? A recent study employing a conjoint-experimental method finds that Americans’ stereotypes of welfare recipients as undeserving drive negative attitudes toward welfare, while stereotypes of welfare recipients as Black have little effect. However, this finding may be produced by the measure of welfare attitudes that includes questions implicating deservingness. We implement a conceptual replication of that study using different measures of welfare policy opinions that directly ask respondents about spending, both on welfare generally and on specific welfare programs. We show that when support for welfare is measured using the spending questions, stereotypes about race are significantly associated with opposition to welfare. These results have important implications for the debate on Americans’ opposition to welfare programs, as well as for the measurement of policy opinions in surveys.

The bushy-tailed opossum (Glironia venusta) is a small arboreal marsupial found in the Amazon basin. G. venusta is rarely seen and has few published sightings throughout its range. Videos (N = 79) were obtained from arboreal camera traps located in the Las Piedras Amazon Center near the Las Piedras River (SE Peru) from April 2017 until November 2017. Our new records, the first for the Las Piedras River, demonstrate that the species is nocturnal with activity peaks at 3:00 h and 20:00 h in the hours of complete darkness. The abundance of camera trap footage of such a rarely observed species further demonstrates the effectiveness of arboreal camera trapping to conduct species assessments.

Effective nutrition policies require timely, accurate individual dietary consumption data; collection of such information has been hampered by cost and complexity of dietary surveys and lag in producing results. The objective of this work was to assess accuracy and cost-effectiveness of a streamlined, tablet-based dietary data collection platform for 24-hour individual dietary recalls (24HR) administered using INDDEX24 platform v. a pen-and-paper interview(PAPI) questionnaire, with weighed food record (WFR) as a benchmark. This cross-sectional comparative study included women 18–49 years old from rural Burkina Faso (n 116 INDDEX24; n 115 PAPI). A WFR was conducted; the following day, a 24HR was administered by different interviewers. Food consumption data were converted into nutrient intakes. Validity of 24HR estimates of nutrient and food group consumption was based on comparison with WFR using equivalence tests (group level) and percentages of participants within ranges of percentage error (individual level). Both modalities performed comparably estimating consumption of macro- and micronutrients, food groups and quantities (modalities’ divergence from WFR not significantly different). Accuracy of both modalities was acceptable (equivalence to WFR significant at P < 0·05) at group level for macronutrients, less so for micronutrients and individual-level consumption (percentage within ±20 % for WFR, 17–45 % for macronutrients, 5–17 % for micronutrients). INDDEX24 was more cost-effective than PAPI based on superior accuracy of a composite nutrient intake measure (but not gram amount or item count) due to lower time and personnel costs. INDDEX24 for 24HR dietary surveys linked to dietary reference data shows comparable accuracy to PAPI at lower cost.

On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actually have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions record a survey respondent's most likely predicted number of children, then the average of these intentions does not necessarily equal average actual fertility, even if intentions are formed using rational expectations.

Has survey nonresponse caused scholars to overestimate political trust in China? We analyse item nonresponse for sensitive questions on trust in government from our original survey of villagers conducted in China in 2012. We also analyse nonresponse in four other comparable surveys conducted in China between 1993 and 2014. We examine the association between nonresponse to politically sensitive questions and individual characteristics such as sex, level of education, Party membership and cosmopolitanism. We find that less privileged groups may be underrepresented in survey data generally. We find mixed results regarding the association between cosmopolitanism and nonresponse. We conclude that our understanding of political trust in China has been compromised by high rates of item nonresponse, leading to artificially high estimates of trust in the centre and exaggerated accounts of the gap between trust in central and local leaders.

Much research examining gender bias in politics analyzes responses to explicit survey questions asking individuals whether they prefer male over female leaders or agree that male political leaders are superior. Drawing insights from the measurement of other types of prejudice, this article explores the methodological shortcomings of a widely used question of this type. Analyzing the results of two surveys—one national and one state-level—I compare response patterns to a standard, highly explicit question that is frequently administered by the Pew Research Center with those for a modestly altered item that employs multiple strategies to reduce social desirability bias. Compared with the alternative measure, the conventional item seriously underreports prejudice against women leaders. Moreover, the underreporting of bias is especially prevalent among individuals belonging to groups that are strong advocates of gender equality.

Compared with the many studies in western countries, research on the prevalence of and risk factors for loneliness amongst older people in China is sparse. This paper reviews the current cross-national literature on loneliness and, using data from two national surveys undertaken in 1992 and 2000, assesses the prevalence of loneliness amongst older people in China and explores the factors that raise their vulnerability to the negative feeling. The reported prevalence of loneliness was 15.6 per cent in 1992 and 29.6 per cent in 2000. We suggest that part of the differential is accounted for by the differences in the methodologies of the two surveys and in the questions used to assess loneliness. The evidence from both surveys suggests that loneliness was relatively prevalent among those aged 65 or more years, females and those living in rural areas, and that these variations had greater amplitude in 2000. As in western countries, increased age, being widowed or divorced, and poor self-rated health were significantly associated with old-age loneliness in China at the two dates. Two factors positively related to loneliness were found that are specific to the Chinese context, however: living in a rural (as opposed to urban) area, and thinking that one's children are not filial. To develop our understanding of loneliness among older people in China and other non-western countries, it will be necessary to construct more rigorous and comparable measurements of loneliness and to undertake longitudinal studies of social relationships.

Although highly diverse (Fonseca et al. 1996), the Atlantic forest mammal fauna is still poorly known, with very few sites exhaustively inventoried or subjected to long-term studies (Passamani et al. 2000). Although the first surveys using camera traps were carried out in the 1920s (e.g. Chapman 1927), most studies are rather recent (Karanth & Nichols 1998). This is not different in Brazil, where few studies have been published (Marques & Ramos 2001, Santos-Filho & Silva 2002, Silveira et al. 2003, Trolle 2003, Trolle & Kéry 2003). Given this, the objective of this paper is to assess the efficiency of camera trapping as an inventory technique for Neotropical forests in general and Atlantic forest in particular. The study was conducted at the Santa Lúcia Biological Station (SLBS), a biologically rich Atlantic Forest preserve located in south-eastern Brazil (Mendes & Padovan 2000) where mammals have been intensively live-trapped, observed from line-transects or had indirect evidence of their presence (faeces, footprints, scratches, etc.) recorded in earlier years (Passamani et al. 2000).

A recent article in The Economist magazine divided economists into “poets” and “plumbers,” the former articulating radical new visions of the field and the latter patiently installing the infrastructure needed to implement those visions. Bob Shiller is the rare economist who is both poet and plumber. Not only that, he is also entrepreneur and pundit. His work has fundamentally changed the theory, econometrics, practice, and popular understanding of finance.

Starting in the late 1970's, Bob boldly challenged the prevailing orthodoxy of financial economics. He showed that financial asset prices often deviate substantially from the levels predicted by simple efficient-markets models, and he developed new empirical methods to measure these price deviations. In the early 1980's, Bob went on to argue that economists need a much more detailed understanding of investor psychology if they are to understand asset price movements. He pioneered the emerging field of behavioral economics and its most successful branch, behavioral finance. At the end of the century, Bob articulated his vision of finance in a wildly successful popular book, Irrational Exuberance. He became so well known that TIAA-CREF asked him to appear in a series of full-page advertisements in the popular press.

Although Bob does not believe that investors use financial markets in a perfectly rational manner, he does believe that these markets offer great possibilities to improve the human condition. His recent work asks how existing financial markets can be used, and new financial markets can be designed, to improve the sharing of risks across groups of people in different regions, countries, and occupations. He has explored risk-sharing possibilities not only in journal articles, but also in business ventures and a 2003 book, The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century.

It was a great privilege for me to interview Bob Shiller. Bob's arrival at Yale when I was a Ph.D. student there set the course of my career as an economist. Bob reinvigorated the Yale tradition of macroeconomics, with its emphasis on the central role of financial markets in the macroeconomy and its idealism about the possibility of improving macroeconomic outcomes. First as a thesis adviser, then as a coauthor, mentor, and friend, Bob showed me how to contribute to this tradition.

The interview took place at the 2003 annual meetings of the Allied Social Science Associations in Washington, D.C. We met in a hotel suite, ate a room service meal, and had the enjoyable conversation that is reproduced below.