From April 2018 to August 2019, the Yuan has declined in value relative to the US dollar by 12.6%, and the effects of this decline have not been studied. This study analyzes the effects of this fall in Yuan value, in isolation of tariffs, on US, Chinese, and world cotton markets. The results show that the adverse effects of the decline in Yuan value reverberate throughout world cotton markets and exacerbate the detrimental effects of the Chinese cotton tariff.

Asian gypsy and nun moth introductions into the United States, possibly arriving on imported Siberian coniferous logs, threaten domestic forests and product markets and could have global market consequences. We simulate, using the Global Forest Products Model (a spatial equilibrium model of the world forest sector), the consequences under current policies of a widespread, successful pest invasion, and of plausible trading partner responses to the successful invasion. We find that trade liberalization would have a negligible effect on U.S. imports of Siberian logs and, consequently, on the risk of a pest invasion. But, if it happened, possibly through trade in other commodities, a successful and widespread pest invasion would have large effects on producers and consumers over the period 2002 to 2030.

It has been hypothesized that differentially applied environmental regulations create pollution havens, as firms will choose to invest in countries with lax environmental standards. Using a theoretical model of pest control adoption and an empirical spatial equilibrium model, we examine one such environmental regulation, a U.S. ban on methyl bromide, to determine if an agricultural pollution haven will be created in Mexico. Alterations in agricultural production location, trade patterns, and methyl bromide use are determined. We find that, under the assumptions held, Mexico will not dramatically increase its use of methyl bromide following the ban. Sensitivity analysis to this result is conducted.

United States consumer confidence in food safety is an increasingly more prominent issue in food production and marketing. Estimating the welfare effects of a breakdown in the supply chain can provide a benchmark for the cost of potential future events. In 2006, United States long grain rice stocks were contaminated with an unapproved genetically modified rice variety causing trade disruptions predominantly between the United States and the European Union. Using a spatial partial equilibrium model the economic effects of European policy on bilateral trade flows and prices during this event was an estimated loss of $421.3 million US dollars.