The 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri unleashed a political earthquake in Lebanon. Tripoli and its surroundings became a Sunni base for the Future Movement, led by Rafiq Hariri’s son Saad and other neoliberal elites from Lebanon’s nouveaux riches political class. For the first time, Tripolitanians rallied around a political party based outside their own city.

Many Tripolitanians supported the Future Movement in 2005 because they hoped that Saad Hariri, with his personal wealth and connections to Saudi Arabia, might bring investments to marginalized areas in northern Lebanon. However, these expectations were not met.

The Future Movement was an elite-based party, and its strategies of outreach to the poor had severe shortcomings. It used divisive sectarian (anti-Shiʿi) electoral strategies in Tripoli and empowered Sunni radicals, leading to a spiral of violence. Sunni hardliners gained prominent roles in Tripoli after Hizbullah and its allies turned their weapons inwards in Beirut in May 2008. However, this sectarian resource was insufficient to help the Future Movement maintain its popularity in Tripoli in the long run.

Chapter 5 explores the collapse of the EPRDF-PFDJ and NRM-RPF relationships between 1998 and 2001, until that point the main fulcrum of regional security policy for all four governing elites. The chapter explains how longstanding tensions within both pairings rose violently to the surface during this period. At the heart of both disagreements were feelings of superiority and inferiority dating back to affinities established during the struggle era and deep-seated militarism within each movement. These conflicts were, however, catalysed by changes in all four movements’ regional position in the post-liberation era. The intensely personal nature of EPRDF-PFDJ and NRM-RPF elite relations prior to this point, it is argued, rendered the subsequent violence and inter-state antagonism all the more acute and damaging, and the chapter underlines the significant regional repositioning the clashes forced all four states to undergo, and the unlikely regional alliances that this led to.