Introduction: Practice guidelines discourage routine imaging for low back pain and recommend selective use when serious underlying conditions are suspected. Evidence about prevalence of serious pathologies and accuracy of red flags for decision-making is limited. We describe rates of serious low back pathology, assess the accuracy of three red flags and model the utility of combining administratively available red flags to reduce imaging. Methods: A seven-year retrospective study of patients presenting with low back pain to four emergency departments in Nova Scotia, Canada. Patient characteristics were available from administrative data. We test sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios of individual and combinations of red flags. We use decision curve analyses to assess the clinical utility of three red flags to inform imaging. Results: We included data from 38,714 patients presenting with low back pain. Serious low back pathology was diagnosed in 1196(3.09%): 847 (2.19%) were vertebral fractures, 184 (0.48%) unstable fracture, 262 (0.68%) cancer, 57 (0.15%) cauda equina syndrome, and 30 (0.08%) spinal infection. Value of combining three red flags (age>65, female sex, and trauma) was found: positive likelihood ratios of 4.36 and 9.74 for vertebral fracture and unstable fracture, respectively. Imaging for low back pain could be reduced by 28 per 100 patients using a model that incorporates sex, age >65, and trauma. Conclusion: Serious low back pathology is extremely rare in patients presenting with low back pain. Combinations of red flags readily available in emergency departments have the potential to reduce unnecessary imaging tests.
