In this article, possible use of climate forecasts in rainfall index
insurance of hay and forage production is considered in a geographical area
(southeast United States) relatively heavily impacted by the El Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Analysis of the stochastic properties of
rainfall, yields, and the ENSO forecasts using the copula technique shows
that the forecast impact depends on the proximity to the Gulf Coast where
the impact of the ENSO is more pronounced and earlier in the year.
Stochastic modeling shows that the use of skillful long-term climate
forecasts by the insured producers creates intertemporal adverse selection
that can be precluded by offering forecast conditional premiums. The impacts
on the efficiency of the rainfall index insurance and results of sensitivity
analysis with respect to model parameters are discussed.