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2 results

  • Chapter 17 - Shaken Baby Syndrome

  • from Section 3 - Science
  • Edited by Keith A. Findley, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Cyrille Rossant, University College London, Kana Sasakura, Konan University, Japan, Leila Schneps, Sorbonne Université, Paris, Waney Squier, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, Knut Wester, Universitetet i Bergen, Norway
  • Book:
    Shaken Baby Syndrome
    Published online:
    07 June 2023
    Print publication:
    08 June 2023, pp 259-274

  • Summary

    When very young children are brought to a doctor or hospital with signs and symptoms consistent with head injury, it is important to determine the cause. For almost 50 years, the triad of subdural haematoma (SDH), retinal haemorrhage (RH) and encephalopathy has been regarded as an accurate predictor of deliberate shaking and widely used to diagnose shaken baby syndrome (SBS). Statistical analyses by Cardiff University researchers and others claim to show that certain combinations of findings are highly predictive of abuse and as a result of this conclusion, protocols such as mandatory reporting to police are invoked in the name of protecting the child. However, concerns have been raised about the circularity of approach used in the statistical analyses which requires each case to be classified explicitly as either abuse or non-abuse. By producing a causal model of the problem, we show that these findings are actually a poor predictor of SBS, even where there is some evidence of risk factors indicative of abuse.

  • Bernoulli, Darwin, and Sagan: the probability of life on other planets

  • D. Kim Rossmo
  • Journal:
    International Journal of Astrobiology / Volume 16 / Issue 2 / April 2017
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    25 April 2016, pp. 185-189

  • The recent discovery that billions of planets in the Milky Way Galaxy may be in circumstellar habitable zones has renewed speculation over the possibility of extraterrestrial life. The Drake equation is a probabilistic framework for estimating the number of technological advanced civilizations in our Galaxy; however, many of the equation's component probabilities are either unknown or have large error intervals. In this paper, a different method of examining this question is explored, one that replaces the various Drake factors with the single estimate for the probability of life existing on Earth. This relationship can be described by the binomial distribution if the presence of life on a given number of planets is equated to successes in a Bernoulli trial. The question of exoplanet life may then be reformulated as follows – given the probability of one or more independent successes for a given number of trials, what is the probability of two or more successes? Some of the implications of this approach for finding life on exoplanets are discussed.