In support of the disposal system safety case for a geological disposal facility (GDF) there is a requirement to consider 'what-if' hypothetical scenarios for post-closure nuclear criticality. Although all such scenarios are considered very unlikely, one 'what-if' scenario is the mobilization of fissile material from a number of waste packages and its slow accumulation within the GDF or the immediate surroundings. Should sufficient fissile material accumulate a quasi-steady-state (QSS) transient criticality event could result. A computer model has been developed to understand the evolution and consequences of such an event.

Since a postulated QSS criticality could persist for many millennia, building confidence in the modelling approach is difficult. However, the Oklo natural reactors in Africa operated for similar durations around two billion years ago, providing a natural analogue for comparison. This paper describes the modelling approach, its application to hypothetical criticality events for a GDF, and how the model can be compared to Oklo. The model results are found to be in agreement with the observational evidence from Oklo, building confidence in the use of the QSS model to simulate postulated post-closure criticality events in GDFs.

The Environment Agency Guidance on Requirements for Authorisation (GRA) of a geological disposal facility (GDF) requires a demonstration that "the possibility of a local accumulation of fissile material such as to produce a neutron chain reaction is not a significant concern." A neutron chain reaction that is just self-sustaining is also known as critical.

Waste packages can be designed to ensure that criticality is impossible during the transport and operational phases of a GDF, and for a significant period post-closure. Over longer times, however, packages may degrade, and groundwater flows could lead to a localized accumulation of fissile material. Hence, even though the initial distribution of materials would need to change substantially, criticality cannot be ruled out completely.

This paper describes how an accumulation of fissile material could, hypothetically, lead to a critical configuration; how such a system could evolve; what the local consequences could be; and how the engineered and geological barriers could be affected. The conclusion from studies to date is that, even for large (and very unlikely) fissile accumulations, the consequences of a post-closure criticality event are not a significant concern.

In support of the Radioactive Waste Management (RWM) safety case for a geological disposal facility (GDF) in the UK, there is a regulatory requirement to consider the likelihood and consequences of nuclear criticality. Waste packages are designed to ensure that criticality is not possible during the transport and operational phases of a GDF and for a significant period post-closure. However, over longer post-closure timescales, conditions in the GDF will evolve.

For waste packages containing spent fuel, it can be shown that, under certain conditions, package flooding could result in a type of criticality event referred to as 'quasi-steady-state' (QSS). Although unlikely, this defines a 'what-if' scenario for understanding the potential consequences of post-closure criticality. This paper provides an overview of a methodology to understand QSS criticality and its application to a spent fuel waste package.

The power of such a hypothetical criticality event is typically estimated to be a few kilowatts: comparable with international studies of similar systems and the decay heat for which waste packages are designed. This work has built confidence in the methodology and supports RWM's demonstration that post-closure criticality is not a significant concern.

A geological disposal facility (GDF) will include fissile materials that could, under certain conditions, lead to criticality. Demonstration of criticality safety therefore forms an important part of a GDF's safety case.

Containment provided by the waste package will contribute to criticality safety during package transport and the GDF operational phase. The GDF multiple-barrier system will ensure that criticality is prevented for some time after facility closure. However, on longer post-closure timescales, conditions in the GDF will evolve and it is necessary to demonstrate: an understanding of the conditions under which criticality could occur; the likelihood of such conditions occurring; and the consequences of criticality should it occur.

Work has addressed disposal of all of the UK's higher-activity wastes in three illustrative geologies. This paper, however, focuses on presenting results to support safe disposal of spent fuel, plutonium and highlyenriched uranium in higher-strength rock.

The results support a safety case assertion that post-closure criticality is of low likelihood and, if it was to occur, the consequences would be tolerable.