Limited information is available concerning price determination in the thoroughbred yearling market. A recursive model incorporating price expectations and biological constraints is used to estimate supply and demand functions for thoroughbred horses. Empirical results characterize a market with inelastic supply and elastic demand that converges to equilibrium under static conditions. Purses were identified as the most influential variable impacting price. Comparative statics illustrate the effectiveness of purses as a policy instrument for the thoroughbred industry. Federal tax policy also was found to have a significant impact on the decisions to breed or invest in thoroughbred yearlings.

Thoroughbred incentive programs are subsidy policies funded from state parimutuel tax revenue designed to promote regional race horse breeding and ownership. At issue is an ongoing debate concerning the effectiveness of alternative policies. Empirical results indicate that incentive programs have a positive economic effect, but gains to Thoroughbred breeders can be obtained by reallocating tax revenue to non-restricted purses. A policy allocating tax revenue to non-restricted purses shifts yearling demand and increases prices, while breeder subsidies shift only the supply function and therefore lower prices. Consequently, breeder revenues increase in response to a policy that favors non-restricted purses over subsidies.