Epidemiological data offer conflicting views of the natural course of binge-eating disorder (BED), with large retrospective studies suggesting a protracted course and small prospective studies suggesting a briefer duration. We thus examined changes in BED diagnostic status in a prospective, community-based study that was larger and more representative with respect to sex, age of onset, and body mass index (BMI) than prior multi-year prospective studies.

Probands and relatives with current DSM-IV BED (n = 156) from a family study of BED (‘baseline’) were selected for follow-up at 2.5 and 5 years. Probands were required to have BMI > 25 (women) or >27 (men). Diagnostic interviews and questionnaires were administered at all timepoints.

Of participants with follow-up data (n = 137), 78.1% were female, and 11.7% and 88.3% reported identifying as Black and White, respectively. At baseline, their mean age was 47.2 years, and mean BMI was 36.1. At 2.5 (and 5) years, 61.3% (45.7%), 23.4% (32.6%), and 15.3% (21.7%) of assessed participants exhibited full, sub-threshold, and no BED, respectively. No participants displayed anorexia or bulimia nervosa at follow-up timepoints. Median time to remission (i.e. no BED) exceeded 60 months, and median time to relapse (i.e. sub-threshold or full BED) after remission was 30 months. Two classes of machine learning methods did not consistently outperform random guessing at predicting time to remission from baseline demographic and clinical variables.

Among community-based adults with higher BMI, BED improves with time, but full remission often takes many years, and relapse is common.

Psychological treatments for young people with sub-threshold or full-syndrome borderline personality disorder (BPD) are found to be effective. However, little is known about the age at which adolescents benefit from early intervention. This study investigated whether age affects the effectiveness of early intervention for BPD.

N = 626 participants (M age = 15 years, 82.7% female) were consecutively recruited from a specialized outpatient service for early intervention in BPD in adolescents aged 12- to 17-years old. DSM-IV BPD criteria were assessed at baseline, one-year (n = 339) and two-year (n = 279) follow-up.

Older adolescents presented with more BPD criteria (χ2 (1) = 58.23, p < 0.001) and showed a steeper decline of BPD criteria over the 2-year follow-up period compared with younger adolescents (χ2 (2) = 13.53, p = 0.001). In an attempt to disentangle effects of early intervention from the natural course of BPD, a parametrized regression model was used. An exponential decrease (b = 0.10, p < 0.001) in BPD criteria was found when starting therapy over the 2-year follow-up. This deviation from the natural course was impacted by age at therapy commencement (b = 0.06, p < 0.001), although significant across all ages: older adolescents showed a clear decrease in BPD criteria, and young adolescents a smaller decrease.

Early intervention appears effective across adolescence, but manifests differently: preventing the normative increase of BPD pathology expected in younger adolescents, and significantly decreasing BPD pathology in older adolescents. The question as to whether developmentally adapted therapeutic interventions could lead to an even increased benefit for younger adolescents, should be explored in future studies.

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is an etiologically and clinically heterogeneous condition. Accumulating evidence suggests that persons with lifetime histories of comorbid AUD and non-alcohol substance use disorder (DRUG) constitute an important subgroup of AUD. This study evaluated the distinctiveness of the comorbid AUD/DRUG behavioral phenotype in a community sample with respect to risk factors, AUD course features, and outcome variables assessed at age 30. Contrast groups included persons with histories of AUD only, DRUG only, and neither AUD nor DRUG.

This research utilized a prospective study design with an age-based cohort (n = 732). Participants completed four comprehensive diagnostic evaluations during the high-risk periods of adolescence, emerging adulthood, and young adulthood.

The comorbid AUD/DRUG group was distinguished from the AUD only group by risk factors, AUD course features, and outcomes. Group differences in outcomes were also explained by overall substance use disorder (SUD) severity. Persons with AUD/DRUG comorbidity were indistinguishable from those with DRUG only histories with respect to risk factors and outcomes but demonstrated greater overall SUD severity. Persons with AUD only were indistinguishable from those with neither AUD nor DRUG histories in risk factor endorsements and were mostly similar in outcomes.

Findings collectively suggest that young adults with histories of AUD only and those with comorbid AUD/DRUG are drawn from dissimilar populations. Similarities between the AUD only group with those absent AUD or DRUG histories are likely related to the former group's developmentally limited AUD course accompanied by relatively few or short-lived alcohol-related problems.

Despite its importance as a public health concern, relatively little is known about the natural course of cannabis use disorders (CUDs). The primary objective of this research was to provide descriptive data on the onset, recovery and recurrence functions of CUDs during the high-risk periods of adolescence, emerging adulthood and young adulthood based on data from a large prospective community sample.

Probands (n = 816) from the Oregon Adolescent Depression Project (OADP) participated in four diagnostic assessments (T1–T4) between the ages of 16 and 30 years, during which current and past CUDs were assessed.

The weighted lifetime prevalence of CUDs was 19.1% with an average onset age of 18.6 years. Although gender was not significantly related to the age of initial CUD onset, men were more likely to be diagnosed with a lifetime CUD. Of those diagnosed with a CUD episode, 81.8% eventually achieved recovery during the study period. Women achieved recovery significantly more quickly than men. The recurrence rate (27.7%) was relatively modest, and most likely to occur within the first 36 months following the offset of the first CUD episode. CUD recurrence was uncommon after 72 months of remission and recovery.

CUDs are relatively common, affecting about one out of five persons in the OADP sample prior to the age of 30 years. Eventual recovery from index CUD episodes is the norm, although about 30% of those with a CUD exhibit a generally persistent pattern of problematic use extending 7 years or longer.

Little is known about the epidemiology of bulimia nervosa outside clinical settings. We report the incidence, prevalence and outcomes of bulimia nervosa using for the first time a nationwide study design.

To assess the incidence and natural course and outcomes of DSM-IV bulimia nervosa among women from the general population, women (n=2881) from the 1975–79 birth cohorts of Finnish twins were screened for lifetime eating disorders using a two-stage procedure consisting of a questionnaire screen and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID). Clinical recovery was defined as 1-year abstinence from bingeing and purging combined with a body mass index (BMI) ⩾19 kg/m2.

The lifetime prevalence of DSM-IV bulimia nervosa was 2.3%; 76% of the women suffered from its purging subtype and 24% from the non-purging subtype. The incidence rate of bulimia nervosa was 300/100000 person-years at the peak age of incidence, 16–20 years, and 150/100000 at 10–24 years. The 5-year clinical recovery rate was 55.0%. Less than a third of the cases had been detected by health-care professionals; detection did not influence outcome. After clinical recovery from bulimia nervosa, the mean levels of residual psychological symptoms gradually decreased over time but many women continued to experience significantly more body image problems and psychosomatic symptoms than never-ill women.

Few women with bulimia nervosa are recognized in health-care settings. Symptoms of bulimia are relatively long-standing, and recovery is gradual. Many clinically recovered women experience residual psychological symptoms after attaining abstinence from bingeing and purging.