Psychosocial and health-related risk factors for depressive symptoms are known. It is unclear if these are associated with depressive symptom patterns over time. We identified trajectories of depressive symptoms and their risk factors among midlife women followed over 15 years.

Participants were 3300 multiracial/ethnic women enrolled in a multisite longitudinal menopause and aging study, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation. Biological, psychosocial, and depressive symptom data were collected approximately annually. Group-based trajectory modeling identified women with similar longitudinal patterns of depressive symptoms. Trajectory groups were compared on time-invariant and varying characteristics using multivariable multinomial analyses and pairwise comparisons.

Five symptom trajectories were compared (50% very low; 29% low; 5% increasing; 11% decreasing; 5% high). Relative to whites, blacks were less likely to be in the increasing trajectory and more likely to be in the decreasing symptom trajectory and Hispanics were more likely to have a high symptom trajectory than an increasing trajectory. Psychosocial/health factors varied between groups. A rise in sleep problems was associated with higher odds of having an increasing trajectory and a rise in social support was associated with lower odds. Women with low role functioning for 50% or more visits had three times the odds of being in the increasing symptom group.

Changes in psychosocial and health characteristics were related to changing depressive symptom trajectories. Health care providers need to evaluate women's sleep quality, social support, life events, and role functioning repeatedly during midlife to monitor changes in these and depressive symptoms.

In women, anxiety symptoms are common and increase during midlife, but little is known about whether these symptoms predict onsets of major depressive disorder (MDD) episodes. We examined whether anxiety symptoms are associated with subsequent episodes of MDD in midlife African-American and Caucasian women, and whether they confer a different risk for first versus recurrent MDD episodes.

A longitudinal analysis was conducted using 12 years of data from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Mental Health Study (MHS). The baseline sample comprised 425 Caucasian (n = 278) and African American (n = 147) community-dwelling women, aged 46.1 ± 2.5 years. Anxiety symptoms measured annually using a self-report questionnaire were examined in relation to MDD episodes in the subsequent year, assessed with the SCID. Multivariable models were estimated with random effects logistic regression.

Higher anxiety symptoms scores were associated with a significantly higher adjusted odds of developing an episode of MDD at the subsequent annual visit [odds ratio (OR) 1.47, p = 0.01], specifically for a recurrent episode (OR 1.49, p = 0.03) but non-significant for a first episode (OR 1.32, p = 0.27). There were no significant racial effects in the association between anxiety symptoms and subsequent MDD episodes.

Anxiety symptoms often precede MDD and may increase the vulnerability of midlife women to depressive episodes, particularly recurrences. Women with anxiety symptoms should be monitored clinically during the ensuing year for the development of an MDD episode.

Little is known about factors that predict first lifetime episodes of major depression in middle-aged women. It is not known whether health-related factors and life stress pose more or less of a risk to the onset of clinical depression than does the menopausal transition.

The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders (SCID) was used to assess diagnoses of lifetime, annual and current major depression in a community-based sample of premenopausal or early perimenopausal African American and White women. Menstrual cycle characteristics, psychosocial and health-related factors, and blood samples for assay of reproductive hormones were obtained annually. Two hundred and sixty-six women without a history of major depression at baseline constituted the cohort for the current analyses.

Over 7 years of follow-up, 42 (15.8%) women met criteria for a diagnosis of major depression. Frequent vasomotor symptoms (VMS; hot flashes and/or night sweats) (HR 2.14, p=0.03) were a significant predictor of major depression in univariate analyses. After simultaneous adjustment for multiple predictors in Cox proportional hazards analyses, frequent VMS were no longer significant; lifetime history of an anxiety disorder (HR 2.20, p=0.02) and role limitations due to physical health (HR 1.88, p=0.07) at baseline and a very stressful life event (HR 2.25, p=0.04) prior to depression onset predicted a first episode of major depression.

Both earlier (e.g. history of anxiety disorders) and more proximal factors (e.g. life stress) may be more important than VMS in contributing to a first episode of major depression during midlife.