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local projection method

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7 - Structural Reforms and Fiscal Sustainability
from Part II - Macroeconomic Implications of Reforms
- By Davide Furceri, João Tovar Jalles
Edited by Nauro F. Campos, University College London, Paul De Grauwe, London School of Economics and Political Science, Yuemei Ji, University College London
Book:

Economic Growth and Structural Reforms in Europe

Published online:

31 March 2020

Print publication:

02 April 2020, pp 214-238
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Summary

This paper examines the effect of structural (domestic and external finance, trade and product market) reforms on public debt. It applies the local projection method to a dataset of major reforms and regulatory changes for a sample of 90 advanced and developing countries spanning between 1973 and 2003. The results suggest that over the medium term – that is, four to six years after the reform takes place – reforms contribute to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio. This effect depends on the initial debt-to-GDP at the time of the reform. The findings are robust to the inclusion of all reforms simultaneously and to an instrumental variable approach, which uses political economy drivers of reforms as instruments.