This study used aggregated data for fresh vegetables and fresh fruits toanalyze how trade flows in the fresh produce industry have changed undertrade agreements and to assess the potential implications to nutritionpolicies in the United States. The first part of the analysis uses aBai-Perron test to endogenously determine any structural break points invegetable and fruit trade movements and prices. Directed acyclic graphs andhistorical decompositions are used to establish causal patterns oninnovations from vector autoregression models fitted to annual observationsof trade flows, prices, and income. The results showed that trade agreementshave had significant impacts to the produce industry. Income was a majordeterminant of domestic fruit production and imports.

This study investigates the potential impacts of food safety outbreaks on domestic shipments, imports, and prices of the produce industry. Three case studies were analyzed to assess these potential impacts: the cantaloupe outbreak of March–April 2008, the spinach outbreak of September 2006, and the tomato outbreak of June–July 2008. Data-determined historical decompositions were conducted to provide a weekly picture of domestic shipment, import, and price fluctuation transmissions. The empirical analysis based on a vector autoregression (VAR) model showed differences in the results depending on the source of the outbreak (domestic vs. imported).